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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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53 minutes ago, alex said:

I'm mentally preparing for another screw job, but I'm not sure I understand this forecast. All snow from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon 3 pm, and 1-2" total? We do better than that in weak upslope... is the downsloping off Crawford Notch really going to limit precipitation that much from what I thought was a very juicy system???

 

Monday Night
Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 22. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tuesday
Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all sleet after 3pm. High near 32. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow likely, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Well "Tuesday" starts at 11z, so mixed with sleet until 20z could really cut into the snow totals. And you could see quite a bit of downslope influence.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even if I miss out....this one is fascinating-

I went 4-8" outside 495 for a first call.....

Yeah I'm starting to think the cold may win out. Still have a really important cycle at 00z. I would like to at least see it hold serve...a warmer tick changes the sensible wx a lot. 

There could be a mess of sleet and then like massive aggregates for a period when the heavy stuff comes in. But even like a 5 to 1 sleet/snow/slop ratio will give plowable amounts. 

Its definitely not an easy forecast. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm starting to think the cold may win out. Still have a really important cycle at 00z. I would like to at least see it hold serve...a warmer tick changes the sensible wx a lot. 

There could be a mess of sleet and then like massive aggregates for a period when the heavy stuff comes in. But even like a 5 to 1 sleet/snow/slop ratio will give plowable amounts. 

Its definitely not an easy forecast. 

Box is totally on the Frzr kick,claiming +5 warm layer in the Berkshires, just don't see it, they quote WPC

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Box is totally on the Frzr kick,claiming +5 warm layer in the Berkshires, just don't see it, they quote WPC

I could see some ZR after the heavy stuff moves through but most of the guidance that had the huge warm tongue during the heavy precip has since backed off and cooled quite a bit. I'd prob be playing the sleet and snow up more...but there's still some time to adjust and get the word out depending on what the 00z suite decides to do. 

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The fact that 950-850 is so cold is telling for at least lower boundary layer temps and possibly extended IP/SN. It's possible low level fronto helps generate sh*tty snow growth like VD 2007 in the interior too. Something to think about. But, if we have lousy subby zones from the tremendous lift to the east...it may also cause lower amounts of SN IP too.  It's a very difficult forecast, but I'm with Will about 00z runs. If they hold or even tick cooler...look out.

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10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You wanna' come out and help shovel sleet?  Free beer. 

Can't say I've ever had to shovel inches of sleet.  Nor do I want to.  I have access to solid beer now thru the Craft Berr Cellar.  Not free though.  I like using Untappd to log them in.

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Free car wash 

Could use one.

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