40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 First Call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/wintery-concern-grows-for-monday-night.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 53 minutes ago, alex said: I'm mentally preparing for another screw job, but I'm not sure I understand this forecast. All snow from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon 3 pm, and 1-2" total? We do better than that in weak upslope... is the downsloping off Crawford Notch really going to limit precipitation that much from what I thought was a very juicy system??? Monday Night Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 22. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all sleet after 3pm. High near 32. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Well "Tuesday" starts at 11z, so mixed with sleet until 20z could really cut into the snow totals. And you could see quite a bit of downslope influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/wintery-concern-grows-for-monday-night.html Even your hood could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/wintery-concern-grows-for-monday-night.html Love it. 4-8" might be a bold call, but your dissection of the intricacies of the morphology are outstanding. Hope you nail it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even your hood could be interesting. Toughest call in recent memory imho.....most sleet since Valentine 2007?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Lots of rain forecasts are in deep doo doo as the cold trends keep coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's interesting how darn close we are to like 6-8" of parachutes along 495 and NW...yet probably 99% of the population has no idea. Even if I miss out....this one is fascinating- I went 4-8" outside 495 for a first call..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Ice ice baby. 0.25"-0.5" accretion? I'll take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even if I miss out....this one is fascinating- I went 4-8" outside 495 for a first call..... Yeah I'm starting to think the cold may win out. Still have a really important cycle at 00z. I would like to at least see it hold serve...a warmer tick changes the sensible wx a lot. There could be a mess of sleet and then like massive aggregates for a period when the heavy stuff comes in. But even like a 5 to 1 sleet/snow/slop ratio will give plowable amounts. Its definitely not an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm starting to think the cold may win out. Still have a really important cycle at 00z. I would like to at least see it hold serve...a warmer tick changes the sensible wx a lot. There could be a mess of sleet and then like massive aggregates for a period when the heavy stuff comes in. But even like a 5 to 1 sleet/snow/slop ratio will give plowable amounts. Its definitely not an easy forecast. Box is totally on the Frzr kick,claiming +5 warm layer in the Berkshires, just don't see it, they quote WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Box is totally on the Frzr kick,claiming +5 warm layer in the Berkshires, just don't see it, they quote WPC I could see some ZR after the heavy stuff moves through but most of the guidance that had the huge warm tongue during the heavy precip has since backed off and cooled quite a bit. I'd prob be playing the sleet and snow up more...but there's still some time to adjust and get the word out depending on what the 00z suite decides to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Box is totally on the Frzr kick,claiming +5 warm layer in the Berkshires, just don't see it, they quote WPC They hated WPC's forecast today. At least north of the Pike, it's not a FZRA type of sounding. It's just marginal warm air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Why is HFD County never divided on Box advisories.? Point and click argues for western portions of county only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The fact that 950-850 is so cold is telling for at least lower boundary layer temps and possibly extended IP/SN. It's possible low level fronto helps generate sh*tty snow growth like VD 2007 in the interior too. Something to think about. But, if we have lousy subby zones from the tremendous lift to the east...it may also cause lower amounts of SN IP too. It's a very difficult forecast, but I'm with Will about 00z runs. If they hold or even tick cooler...look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The GFS is not particularly cold down here... definitely warmer than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Why is HFD County never divided on Box advisories.? Point and click argues for western portions of county only. Tonight's forecast from them pretty much is tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tonight's forecast from them pretty much is tossed Lets see how 00z looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 850 progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/01/wintery-concern-grows-for-monday-night.html Good call Ray,(and others) I think after the Pats game/tomorrow people maybe saying where did this come from ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Man 10 degrees cooler tonight and it would have been a contendah. Still a magnificent storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'll feel better if the 0z suites all come in colder. This one is a needle threader to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'll feel better if the 0z suites all come in colder. This one is a needle threader to the end. I'm on the line between 2-3"+. You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm on the line between 2-3"+. You? Drought damager for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Drought damager for you Gonna be rippin' out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm on the line between 2-3"+. You? You wanna' come out and help shovel sleet? Free beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Gonna be rippin' out. Free car wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Free car wash School cancel on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You wanna' come out and help shovel sleet? Free beer. Can't say I've ever had to shovel inches of sleet. Nor do I want to. I have access to solid beer now thru the Craft Berr Cellar. Not free though. I like using Untappd to log them in. 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Free car wash Could use one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 WPC snowfall at 50% percentile snowfall forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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