Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Euro has wind gusts in the upper 60s to near 70 all of CC and Eastern LI and 50s on the Mastiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I did answer. We've tried before and got our wrist slapped for it (even though it was linked to in the directives). They prefer you to hit one warning criterion to issue a warning. I'll have to do something for this though. Ah nice thanks. Sorry I missed it. Yeah this seems like a classic case of like widespread 1" QPF on average is going to fall as a wintry mix of frozen or freezing. It just doesn't seem like it should be the same Winter Weather Advisory as the ones issued for 2 hours of light SN/ZR/IP prior to changing over to rain like we see ahead of a cutter or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 tell you what ... if some how a miracle happens and this ends up whiter/icier here in the interior of Massachusetts... we'll have to doff our hats the GGEM. as far as i've been noticing that model has maintained the coolest complexion of all since the get-go. This run packed the 850 mb 0 C all the way to an ~ASH-HFD line at warmest intrusion for that particular level - additionaly, the 700 and 500 mb level centers go SE ...I have my doubts that 10,000 feet up gets core wrapped that far NW if those tracks occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I've got 20-25 cedar waxwings outside and all you guys can talk about is a storm that will disappoint you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I did answer. We've tried before and got our wrist slapped for it (even though it was linked to in the directives). They prefer you to hit one warning criterion to issue a warning. I'll have to do something for this though. Interesting. To the average layperson its a winter storm. Snow, sleet, freezing rain, wind etc. etc. In the old days they had simple Heavy Snow Warning verses Winter Storm Warnings. People knew the difference. A ton of sleet and some freezing rain can have a much bigger impact than 7" of powder snow. Interesting to see what you will do... Tick, tick, tick. Down to 33.2F with a bit of drizzle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: tell you what ... if some how a miracle happens and this ends up whiter/icier here in the interior of Massachusetts... we'll have to doff our hats the GGEM. as far as i've been noticing that model has maintained the coolest complexion of all since the get-go. This run packed the 850 mb 0 C all the way to an ~ASH-HFD line at warmest intrusion for that particular level - additionaly, the 700 and 500 mb level centers go SE ...I have my doubts that 10,000 feet up gets core wrapped that far NW if those tracks occur. Yeah the GEM hasn't moved much at all in like 4 days. Fairly impressive consistency from that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: tell you what ... if some how a miracle happens and this ends up whiter/icier here in the interior of Massachusetts... we'll have to doff our hats the GGEM. as far as i've been noticing that model has maintained the coolest complexion of all since the get-go. This run packed the 850 mb 0 C all the way to an ~ASH-HFD line at warmest intrusion for that particular level - additionaly, the 700 and 500 mb level centers go SE ...I have my doubts that 10,000 feet up gets core wrapped that far NW if those tracks occur. That would be a rare GGEM coup. I'd give my left nut for the 12Z GGEM solution.....but alas.....it's the GGEM. It's interesting how large the max precip shifts have been in the models. The 12Z Euro cut the precip nearly in half in the St. Lawrence and Hudson Valley's. This is one tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro has wind gusts in the upper 60s to near 70 all of CC and Eastern LI and 50s on the Mastiff If we can load up the trees with ice and rip 55-60 gusts.. I can't even tell you how awesome that would be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If we can load up the trees with ice and rip 55-60 gusts.. I can't even tell you how awesome that would be! I don't see much of a ZR threat. It would be a pretty small geographic area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'll take the under on those gusts in TOL too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: If we can load up the trees with ice and rip 55-60 gusts.. I can't even tell you how awesome that would be! PL generally bounces off the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: PL generally bounces off the trees. Right. I'm saying I'd prefer all zr and I'm hopeful my area is that narrow area though I realize zr isn't a huge likelihood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah the GEM hasn't moved much at all in like 4 days. Fairly impressive consistency from that model. For a while it was the only model with the ULL over ORF while other guidance was like over PIT. They have all trended to the GGEM. It still might be too cold but I think it scored the coup on the upper air placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: tell you what ... if some how a miracle happens and this ends up whiter/icier here in the interior of Massachusetts... we'll have to doff our hats the GGEM. as far as i've been noticing that model has maintained the coolest complexion of all since the get-go. This run packed the 850 mb 0 C all the way to an ~ASH-HFD line at warmest intrusion for that particular level - additionaly, the 700 and 500 mb level centers go SE ...I have my doubts that 10,000 feet up gets core wrapped that far NW if those tracks occur. This is exactly why I was imploring folks to keep an eye on this in my blog last night. It's been an ongoing trend........it may very well reverse, but it may not- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I guess this is technically related. That NFC Championship is in Atlanta. 74,228 and two tornado warned cells are SW of the city in en route within two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take the under on those gusts in TOL too. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 53 minutes ago, dendrite said: The new Nashua. Do you have plowing clients? Hey be nice! (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is exactly why I was imploring folks to keep an eye on this in my blog last night. It's been an ongoing trend........it may very well reverse, but it may not- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 49 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro has wind gusts in the upper 60s to near 70 all of CC and Eastern LI and 50s on the Mastiff Road trip to FI NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Significant trend continued from 00z to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 There is also a cstl front just east of the coastline and is the reason why the rainfall may be prolific in those areas. I think the strongest winds are probably offshore..IE Cape Cod. It will be windy in cstl areas, but I think the NE flow may cause less mixing. At least that's what seems hinted on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: There is also a cstl front just east of the coastline and is the reason why the rainfall may be prolific in those areas. I think the strongest winds are probably offshore..IE Cape Cod. It will be windy in cstl areas, but I think the NE flow may cause less mixing. At least that's what seems hinted on the models. Looks like total qpf is about an inch for me, but it doubles like 10 miles east....hell of a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same. Ryan says take the over in hills and shore. It is going to absolutely rip..I am so pumped http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Big-NorEaster-Moves-In-411458665.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan says take the over in hills and shore. It is going to absolutely rip..I am so pumped http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/weather/stories/Big-NorEaster-Moves-In-411458665.html Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This is a bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: There is also a cstl front just east of the coastline and is the reason why the rainfall may be prolific in those areas. I think the strongest winds are probably offshore..IE Cape Cod. It will be windy in cstl areas, but I think the NE flow may cause less mixing. At least that's what seems hinted on the models. Still need to watch it tomorrow as well across NE MA into SNH for some light stuff. RPM still hitting it, even the end of the hrrr shows some bands at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good luck with that. Ryan >> Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, wx2fish said: Still need to watch it tomorrow as well across NE MA into SNH for some light stuff. RPM still hitting it, even the end of the hrrr shows some bands at the end of the run Yep, sneaky CJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: This is a bit concerning. Yeah it's similar to ORH-FIT. That's parachutes during the heavy stuff between like 00z-09z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: This is a bit concerning. That's awfully close to all wet snow...as it is it's a 33-34F scalping going to heavy wet snow before the real warmth moves in. Edit that is the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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