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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I did answer. We've tried before and got our wrist slapped for it (even though it was linked to in the directives). 

They prefer you to hit one warning criterion to issue a warning. I'll have to do something for this though.

Ah nice thanks.  Sorry I missed it. 

Yeah this seems like a classic case of like widespread 1" QPF on average is going to fall as a wintry mix of frozen or freezing.  It just doesn't seem like it should be the same Winter Weather Advisory as the ones issued for 2 hours of light SN/ZR/IP prior to changing over to rain like we see ahead of a cutter or something. 

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tell you what ... if some how a miracle happens and this ends up whiter/icier here in the interior of Massachusetts... we'll have to doff our hats the GGEM.  as far as i've been noticing that model has maintained the coolest complexion of all since the get-go.  This run packed the 850 mb 0 C all the way to an ~ASH-HFD line at warmest intrusion for that particular level - additionaly, the 700 and 500 mb level centers go SE ...I have my doubts that 10,000 feet up gets core wrapped that far NW if those tracks occur.

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I did answer. We've tried before and got our wrist slapped for it (even though it was linked to in the directives). 

They prefer you to hit one warning criterion to issue a warning. I'll have to do something for this though.

Interesting.   To the average layperson its a winter storm.  Snow, sleet, freezing rain, wind etc. etc.  In the old days  they had simple Heavy Snow Warning verses Winter Storm Warnings.  People knew the difference.  A ton of sleet and some freezing rain can have a much bigger impact than 7" of powder snow.   Interesting to see what you will do...

Tick, tick, tick.  Down to 33.2F with a bit of drizzle...

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

tell you what ... if some how a miracle happens and this ends up whiter/icier here in the interior of Massachusetts... we'll have to doff our hats the GGEM.  as far as i've been noticing that model has maintained the coolest complexion of all since the get-go.  This run packed the 850 mb 0 C all the way to an ~ASH-HFD line at warmest intrusion for that particular level - additionaly, the 700 and 500 mb level centers go SE ...I have my doubts that 10,000 feet up gets core wrapped that far NW if those tracks occur.

Yeah the GEM hasn't moved much at all in like 4 days.  Fairly impressive consistency from that model.  

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

tell you what ... if some how a miracle happens and this ends up whiter/icier here in the interior of Massachusetts... we'll have to doff our hats the GGEM.  as far as i've been noticing that model has maintained the coolest complexion of all since the get-go.  This run packed the 850 mb 0 C all the way to an ~ASH-HFD line at warmest intrusion for that particular level - additionaly, the 700 and 500 mb level centers go SE ...I have my doubts that 10,000 feet up gets core wrapped that far NW if those tracks occur.

That would be a rare GGEM coup.  I'd give my left nut for the 12Z GGEM solution.....but alas.....it's the GGEM.  It's interesting how large the max precip shifts have been in the models.  The 12Z Euro cut the precip nearly in half in the St. Lawrence and Hudson Valley's.  This is one tough forecast. 

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the GEM hasn't moved much at all in like 4 days.  Fairly impressive consistency from that model.  

For a while it was the only model with the ULL over ORF while other guidance was like over PIT. They have all trended to the GGEM. It still might be too cold but I think it scored the coup on the upper air placement. 

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40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

tell you what ... if some how a miracle happens and this ends up whiter/icier here in the interior of Massachusetts... we'll have to doff our hats the GGEM.  as far as i've been noticing that model has maintained the coolest complexion of all since the get-go.  This run packed the 850 mb 0 C all the way to an ~ASH-HFD line at warmest intrusion for that particular level - additionaly, the 700 and 500 mb level centers go SE ...I have my doubts that 10,000 feet up gets core wrapped that far NW if those tracks occur.

This is exactly why I was imploring folks to keep an eye on this in my blog last night.

It's been an ongoing trend........it may very well reverse, but it may not-

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There is also a cstl front just east of the coastline and is the reason why the rainfall may be prolific in those areas. I think the strongest winds are probably offshore..IE Cape Cod.  It will be windy in cstl areas, but I think the NE flow may cause less mixing. At least that's what seems hinted on the models.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

There is also a cstl front just east of the coastline and is the reason why the rainfall may be prolific in those areas. I think the strongest winds are probably offshore..IE Cape Cod.  It will be windy in cstl areas, but I think the NE flow may cause less mixing. At least that's what seems hinted on the models.

Looks like total qpf is about an inch for me, but it doubles like 10 miles east....hell of a gradient.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

There is also a cstl front just east of the coastline and is the reason why the rainfall may be prolific in those areas. I think the strongest winds are probably offshore..IE Cape Cod.  It will be windy in cstl areas, but I think the NE flow may cause less mixing. At least that's what seems hinted on the models.

Still need to watch it tomorrow as well across NE MA into SNH for some light stuff. RPM still hitting it,  even the end of the hrrr shows some bands at the end of the run

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