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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that my opine matters much ... but the balance of my expectations with this ordeal had been more focused on the drought recovery prospects for the better part of two days. 

This whole system's set up hearkens back to so many AFDs of the 1990s (the golden era of NWS' dialogue), where x-y-z forecaster expended real effort explaining hydro concerns, and that "local studies," relative to a-b-c storm showed various concerns relative to climate favored zones... In general, regions will do better than general modeled QPF, due to oreographic enhancing/lifting, along with other conditional parameters such as coastal boundaries..etc.

The ORH Hills and Monadnocks...and in fact the east facing rise off the coastal plain extending up through Maine... that whole axis tends to do well to bust high when we set up these long distance onshore CCB flows.  We can already see steady QPF on the light side breaking out well ahead of synoptic forcing as it approaches (arc-linearly) from the south, along said areas. Then the synoptic stuff arrives and seeds.. The models will add this sort of "pre" stuff to the proverbial bucket, of course, but..they won't see all of it.

   (whether some ..part...or all of that takes on freezing, frozen or amalgam of all three in any fashion, or purely liquid ...notwithstanding. I don't care. Not interested as far as hydro/drought denting is concerned)

Anyway, the last couple of days I happened by several reservoirs and was stunned really ...that we've been at or above normal precipitation since the Fall, and none of them showed much indication of depth recovery.  Yet, streams and rivers seem fairly well recovered to standard flow rates.  A Met buddy and I were trying to figure out why the disparity - not a hyrdologist, but perhaps the increase is rain hasn't yet penetrated the water table? 

As far as this system's other stuff and the incredible expenditure of energy that has transpired over the course of the last three days in this thread ... if I never hear the expression "tick colder" again it will be too soon. In fact, I don't ever want to hear the words 'tick' or 'colder' because it will rattle my annoyance bones to the core and get me wishing pain and sorrow upon my fellow brethren like a deviant Catholic.  good christ.  .... I know I know.

 

if you leave your beer in the freezer just a little bit longer, it will be a tick colder.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'd take that and run. And to PF...not worried about massive ZR here. 

Yeah I wouldn't be... just showing what its p-type thing was spitting out.

I don't really get it as your H85-H95 layer is so damn cold.  My guess is a lot of this ZR is really IP.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

if you leave your beer in the freezer just a little bit longer, it will be a tick colder.

:lol:  ...nice!

Guys, it seems late trends (and I'm not saying ticks and blue-balls) seem to me that the mid level warm layer should actually be 'cut-off' (if that's not too strong a word) because there's a late-ish sort of trend for the mlv centers to go SE more.  So long as there's all this consternation about ptype, may want to consider that. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

What's it look like around ORH-FIT for that 36-42h periods. That looks pretty cold. 

It's a consistent -1 to -2C layer at 700 mb through the event (as the warmest layer). Then around 06z Tue it warms around 750 mb to around -0.5 C, but 850 is still -2 or colder. At 12z it all comes in like a wall of warmth from 925 through 700 mb. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's a consistent -1 to -2C layer at 700 mb through the event (as the warmest layer). Then around 06z Tue it warms around 750 mb to around -0.5 C, but 850 is still -2 or colder. At 12z it all comes in like a wall of warmth from 925 through 700 mb. 

So that's basically parachutes for like 6-8 hours. Impressive. Obviously very razors edge aloft...the big question: is this done trending yet? Sometimes we see an over-trend and then it ticks back the other way in the final 24 hours, but other times I have seen it trend straight up to start time. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

So that's basically parachutes for like 6-8 hours. Impressive. Obviously very razors edge aloft...the big question: is this done trending yet? Sometimes we see an over-trend and then it ticks back the other way in the final 24 hours, but other times I have seen it trend straight up to start time. 

I think it keeps going east.  These are the time frame when those of us in western New England expect to start to see the rug get pulled out as everything slowly ticks east and there's nothing you can do about it, lol.

Luckily this time we've got a long way to go east until we are in trouble.  But this is the classic time frame for the east ticks on coastal storms.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So that's basically parachutes for like 6-8 hours. Impressive. Obviously very razors edge aloft...the big question: is this done trending yet? Sometimes we see an over-trend and then it ticks back the other way in the final 24 hours, but other times I have seen it trend straight up to start time. 

That is what i'm wondering as well, We typically see a halt then it tics back one or two the other way, Not the case yet, But with the ULL shifting more SE ea run, The SLP is now taking a more SE track as well once it reaches our lat

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ha, all my neighbors to the S and W are now saying they want to go conservative. That's an interesting change of pace.

I might have missed it earlier if you responded...but can you guys issue Watches or Warnings even if criteria wouldn't be met for any 1 p-type?  Like if you get 3" of sleet, 2" of wet snow, a quarter inch of ZR...overall its a Winter Storm Warning type impact for removal and shear magnitude of precipitation but doesn't meet any given criteria.

I'll be curious to see how the headlines go with this... I mean you get 1" QPF as all sleet, the impact is there.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I might have missed it earlier if you responded...but can you guys issue Watches or Warnings even if criteria wouldn't be met for any 1 p-type?  Like if you get 3" of sleet, 2" of wet snow, a quarter inch of ZR...overall its a Winter Storm Warning type impact for removal and shear magnitude of precipitation but doesn't meet any given criteria.

I'll be curious to see how the headlines go with this... I mean you get 1" QPF as all sleet, the impact is there.

I did answer. We've tried before and got our wrist slapped for it (even though it was linked to in the directives). 

They prefer you to hit one warning criterion to issue a warning. I'll have to do something for this though.

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