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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

it's a new century, though.

Holy grail but because I see some similar elements it's not OK to bring it up. Has to be a 1 to 1 match in all things WXGEEK. I get it. JAX has a different opinion for their sensible weather but we move on. Interesting to see NWS snow forecasts higher than modeling for a change in NNE

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy grail but because I see some similar elements it's not OK to bring it up. Has to be a 1 to 1 match in all things WXGEEK. I get it. JAX has a different opinion for their sensible weather but we move on. Interesting to see NWS snow forecasts higher than modeling for a change in NNE

What's the point of showing up to work if I'm going to rip and read? I'm making a forecast.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Oh I thought that was the shift you were bitching about. Bold, good luck. Hope it's even more 

Nah, the shift I was wondering about was talking all cold models but had no snow. I probably have the highest uncertainty in NH though, because the taint will arrive there first. My interior ME zones especially could be okay for while.

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

At least it factors in temps aloft. But still falls short, especially in situations like this.

Well I think you can see it on there. Right around 6".

They all have limitations. The kuchera one is pretty bad in wet snow with marginal BL temps...especially like isothermal from 900-925 downward. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They all have limitations. The kuchera one is pretty bad in wet snow with marginal BL temps...especially like isothermal from 900-925 downward. 

Yeah because then it's ballpark 12 - 2*(271K - MaxT). If you are 35 and snowing, that math is like a 3:1 ratio.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You're probably best off with the Cobb techniques, because they use some VVs in addition to temps aloft. After all what good is the DGZ unless you're punching it with a punch of omega.

BTV on the GFS gets some decent omega into the snow growth zone, but the best lift is definitely below it.

omeg.png

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

ORH

Hmm, NWS on the low side of guidance there...ha

I don't see Cobb actually plotted there. And I don't have ORH handy here, but for MHT max temp in profile is like 8.5", and the Cobb05 is less snow early (we aren't saturated), but bombs them late for 9.1" total, then Cobb11 (not sure the difference and I don't have time to read the study) is 7.5". So they are all ballpark in the same place.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Better below than above, but you would want them to intersect ideally.

Yeah I've always wondered that... when the term good snow growth is mentioned, that means the absolute best lift occurs in the DGZ?  Because like in this case, when the lift is so massive through so many levels, some of it is bound to be in the DGZ. 

Though I do notice the GFS starts us at around 0C at H8 and then with precip drops to -2C through the column there with that omega.  Snow bomb.

The NAM though has +2C at H8 that seems like it wouldn't be able to overcome.  The 3km NAM has like 1.5-2" of QPF here as all sleet, lol.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I've always wondered that... when the term good snow growth is mentioned, that means the absolute best lift occurs in the DGZ?  Because like in this case, when the lift is so massive through so many levels, some of it is bound to be in the DGZ. 

Though I do notice the GFS starts us at around 0C at H8 and then with precip drops to -2C through the column there with that omega.  Snow bomb.

The NAM though has +2C at H8 that seems like it wouldn't be able to overcome.  The 3km NAM has like 1.5-2" of QPF here as all sleet, lol.

Right, you're looking for the bullseye. High RH, right temps, and lift in that temp band. That maximizes your ratios. 

Of course the snow growth is affected by other layers too, not just where it forms, but that's the most important layer.

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Not that my opine matters much ... but the balance of my expectations with this ordeal had been more focused on the drought recovery prospects for the better part of two days. 

This whole system's set up hearkens back to so many AFDs of the 1990s (the golden era of NWS' dialogue), where x-y-z forecaster expended real effort explaining hydro concerns, and that "local studies," relative to a-b-c storm showed various concerns relative to climate favored zones... In general, regions will do better than general modeled QPF, due to oreographic enhancing/lifting, along with other conditional parameters such as coastal boundaries..etc.

The ORH Hills and Monadnocks...and in fact the east facing rise off the coastal plain extending up through Maine... that whole axis tends to do well to bust high when we set up these long distance onshore CCB flows.  We can already see steady QPF on the light side breaking out well ahead of synoptic forcing as it approaches (arc-linearly) from the south, along said areas. Then the synoptic stuff arrives and seeds.. The models will add this sort of "pre" stuff to the proverbial bucket, of course, but..they won't see all of it.

   (whether some ..part...or all of that takes on freezing, frozen or amalgam of all three in any fashion, or purely liquid ...notwithstanding. I don't care. Not interested as far as hydro/drought denting is concerned)

Anyway, the last couple of days I happened by several reservoirs and was stunned really ...that we've been at or above normal precipitation since the Fall, and none of them showed much indication of depth recovery.  Yet, streams and rivers seem fairly well recovered to standard flow rates.  A Met buddy and I were trying to figure out why the disparity - not a hyrdologist, but perhaps the increase is rain hasn't yet penetrated the water table? 

As far as this system's other stuff and the incredible expenditure of energy that has transpired over the course of the last three days in this thread ... if I never hear the expression "tick colder" again it will be too soon. In fact, I don't ever want to hear the words 'tick' or 'colder' because it will rattle my annoyance bones to the core and get me wishing pain and sorrow upon my fellow brethren like a deviant Catholic.  good christ.  .... I know I know.

 

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