Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: it's a new century, though. Holy grail but because I see some similar elements it's not OK to bring it up. Has to be a 1 to 1 match in all things WXGEEK. I get it. JAX has a different opinion for their sensible weather but we move on. Interesting to see NWS snow forecasts higher than modeling for a change in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy grail but because I see some similar elements it's not OK to bring it up. Has to be a 1 to 1 match in all things WXGEEK. I get it. JAX has a different opinion for their sensible weather but we move on. Interesting to see NWS snow forecasts higher than modeling for a change in NNE What's the point of showing up to work if I'm going to rip and read? I'm making a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: At least it factors in temps aloft. But still falls short, especially in situations like this. Well I think you can see it on there. Right around 6". Oh I thought that was the shift you were bitching about. Bold, good luck. Hope it's even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: What's the point of showing up to work if I'm going to rip and read? I'm making a forecast. Truth Ruth, we don't see that too often, cough cough Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Oh I thought that was the shift you were bitching about. Bold, good luck. Hope it's even more Nah, the shift I was wondering about was talking all cold models but had no snow. I probably have the highest uncertainty in NH though, because the taint will arrive there first. My interior ME zones especially could be okay for while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: At least it factors in temps aloft. But still falls short, especially in situations like this. Well I think you can see it on there. Right around 6". They all have limitations. The kuchera one is pretty bad in wet snow with marginal BL temps...especially like isothermal from 900-925 downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 12z GEFS continues trend of ticking SE. Approximately 50 -75 mi SE trend from 0z to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They all have limitations. The kuchera one is pretty bad in wet snow with marginal BL temps...especially like isothermal from 900-925 downward. Yeah because then it's ballpark 12 - 2*(271K - MaxT). If you are 35 and snowing, that math is like a 3:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Was surreal watching Twister last night as deadly Tstorms were forming down south. So sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah because then it's ballpark 12 - 2*(271K - MaxT). If you are 35 and snowing, that math is like a 3:1 ratio. What's your op of Bufkit with compaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What's your op of Bufkit with compaction? You're probably best off with the Cobb techniques, because they use some VVs in addition to temps aloft. After all what good is the DGZ unless you're punching it with a punch of omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: You're probably best off with the Cobb techniques, because they use some VVs in addition to temps aloft. After all what good is the DGZ unless you're punching it with a punch of omega. ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah because then it's ballpark 12 - 2*(271K - MaxT). If you are 35 and snowing, that math is like a 3:1 ratio. Is the ground frozen or warm though? <duck and run> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You're probably best off with the Cobb techniques, because they use some VVs in addition to temps aloft. After all what good is the DGZ unless you're punching it with a punch of omega. BTV on the GFS gets some decent omega into the snow growth zone, but the best lift is definitely below it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: ORH Hmm, NWS on the low side of guidance there...ha I don't see Cobb actually plotted there. And I don't have ORH handy here, but for MHT max temp in profile is like 8.5", and the Cobb05 is less snow early (we aren't saturated), but bombs them late for 9.1" total, then Cobb11 (not sure the difference and I don't have time to read the study) is 7.5". So they are all ballpark in the same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: BTV on the GFS gets some decent omega into the snow growth zone, but the best lift is definitely below it. Better below than above, but you would want them to intersect ideally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Better below than above, but you would want them to intersect ideally. Yeah I've always wondered that... when the term good snow growth is mentioned, that means the absolute best lift occurs in the DGZ? Because like in this case, when the lift is so massive through so many levels, some of it is bound to be in the DGZ. Though I do notice the GFS starts us at around 0C at H8 and then with precip drops to -2C through the column there with that omega. Snow bomb. The NAM though has +2C at H8 that seems like it wouldn't be able to overcome. The 3km NAM has like 1.5-2" of QPF here as all sleet, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 12z Euro, Looks a couple tics cold again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro, Looks a couple tics cold again ULL is quite a bit south through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I've always wondered that... when the term good snow growth is mentioned, that means the absolute best lift occurs in the DGZ? Because like in this case, when the lift is so massive through so many levels, some of it is bound to be in the DGZ. Though I do notice the GFS starts us at around 0C at H8 and then with precip drops to -2C through the column there with that omega. Snow bomb. The NAM though has +2C at H8 that seems like it wouldn't be able to overcome. The 3km NAM has like 1.5-2" of QPF here as all sleet, lol. Right, you're looking for the bullseye. High RH, right temps, and lift in that temp band. That maximizes your ratios. Of course the snow growth is affected by other layers too, not just where it forms, but that's the most important layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro, Looks a couple tics cold again A lot of us are in for a memorable sleet storm. Hours of clearing driveways and walkways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Comparing the 12z models with 12z raobs, the may not have been too deep with the ULL but certainly too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Comparing the 12z models with 12z raobs, the may not have been too deep with the ULL but certainly too fast. 12z euro is slower and much further south with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The Euro is COLD at 850 up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Parks the 850 mb front on the Pike until 18z Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: The Euro is COLD at 850 up this way. Couple degrees colder at the surface too. Not sure what 800 layer did but it cooled below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 How's H8-H75 look? I'm not surprised H85-sfc is trending colder as the models get a better handle of that high nosing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, wx2fish said: ULL is quite a bit south through 36 Its amazing how at this time and this close in we are getting these changes at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Not that my opine matters much ... but the balance of my expectations with this ordeal had been more focused on the drought recovery prospects for the better part of two days. This whole system's set up hearkens back to so many AFDs of the 1990s (the golden era of NWS' dialogue), where x-y-z forecaster expended real effort explaining hydro concerns, and that "local studies," relative to a-b-c storm showed various concerns relative to climate favored zones... In general, regions will do better than general modeled QPF, due to oreographic enhancing/lifting, along with other conditional parameters such as coastal boundaries..etc. The ORH Hills and Monadnocks...and in fact the east facing rise off the coastal plain extending up through Maine... that whole axis tends to do well to bust high when we set up these long distance onshore CCB flows. We can already see steady QPF on the light side breaking out well ahead of synoptic forcing as it approaches (arc-linearly) from the south, along said areas. Then the synoptic stuff arrives and seeds.. The models will add this sort of "pre" stuff to the proverbial bucket, of course, but..they won't see all of it. (whether some ..part...or all of that takes on freezing, frozen or amalgam of all three in any fashion, or purely liquid ...notwithstanding. I don't care. Not interested as far as hydro/drought denting is concerned) Anyway, the last couple of days I happened by several reservoirs and was stunned really ...that we've been at or above normal precipitation since the Fall, and none of them showed much indication of depth recovery. Yet, streams and rivers seem fairly well recovered to standard flow rates. A Met buddy and I were trying to figure out why the disparity - not a hyrdologist, but perhaps the increase is rain hasn't yet penetrated the water table? As far as this system's other stuff and the incredible expenditure of energy that has transpired over the course of the last three days in this thread ... if I never hear the expression "tick colder" again it will be too soon. In fact, I don't ever want to hear the words 'tick' or 'colder' because it will rattle my annoyance bones to the core and get me wishing pain and sorrow upon my fellow brethren like a deviant Catholic. good christ. .... I know I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, wx2fish said: Couple degrees colder at the surface too. Not sure what 800 layer did but it cooled below Based on what I see in AWIPS, the warm layer is up around 700 mb. And it doesn't warm up until after 12z Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.