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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah its exciting now but hard to say where we'll be with say 36 hours left, and even that is prone to some big changes at that time frame, ha.  A lot of model runs to go.

Just keep bringing a storm system somewhere close to us and let the temperatures work themselves out.

One thing we can lock in right now is it won't be moisture starved.............................:lol:

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on what? What besides 18z GFS 

What model is giving you a lot of snow? No solution is good right now for anyone south of NH VT and Maine and Western Ma.

N ORH gets some snow then a lot of mixing on most models, so that area stands the best chance to be in he mix for something bigger.

 

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48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it's normal to say the situation is crap if you are in the southern coastal plain regions...the chances there are significantly lower. If you are in interior SNE, esp elevated....then there is absolutely reason to think this could be pretty wintry. Even more so further north obviously.

Absolutely 

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You can see on the Euro cross section how ORH can easily mix out that mid-level warmth with rates strong UVVs and how very cold the LL  is in Laconia. Easily  could be colder as modeling evolves. Not convinced at all this isn't a blue bomb. I wouldn't call this airmass total garbage in those spots

KLCI_2017011912_xt_240.png

KORH_2017011912_xt_240.png

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Not sure this favors west as much as it does North in NNE. In SNE it certainly applies...Already the axis of heaviest snow is towards Northern NH and Northwest Maine.

There has been a significant shift south and east with this over time. Also we will want to watch for deformation snows as this winds up. There is destructive interference with the following wave which disrupts our storm on the GFS but I'm in the Euro/GGEM camp where our storm intensifies at the expense of the subsequent wave and a defined CCB develops. 

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12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I was spot on for the last event.  I meh'd it to death

Well, Rightfully so, That whole system sucked and the radar returns were fractured with more of a showery look, This is going to be a wall of moisture and there won't b a sharp cutoff to the precip field either.

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