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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Whenever that signal shows up consistently on models it almost always happens up hereWhenever that signal shows up consistently on models it almost always happens up here

But not usually on a strong easterly flow due to the elevation from the Merrimack River up to where we are that usually provides good QPSBut not usually on a strong easterly flow due to the elevation from the Merrimack River up to where we are that usually provides good QPS

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As a news junkie I have been so wrapped up in this inauguration and the marches etc. that  I have not even followed this storm over the past couple of days.  Is a storm coming?  Time to get back to my normal life.     Going to have to read a bunch and catch up. Seems like a complicated mess?

  Save me an hours time Brian/Chris.  Snow to ice to freezing rain ending as some snow for Plymouth NH?  Okay, I'll stop being lazy and read up...

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

As a news junkie I have been so wrapped up in this inauguration and the marches etc. that  I have not even followed this storm over the past couple of days.  Is a storm coming?  Time to get back to my normal life.     Going to have to read a bunch and catch up. Seems like a complicated mess?

  Save me an hours time Brian/Chris.  Snow to ice to freezing rain ending as some snow for Plymouth NH?  Okay, I'll stop being lazy and read up...

I'd say mostly snow and sleet, some freezing rain, don't rule out drizzle in addition.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Meaning evolution and severe down south, winds and ULL placement, overwhelming sleet sign and qpf. Ryan agrees with me . 

Yeah it's sort of '93-esque with the big severe outbreak, huge anomalies in the south (SLP, u wind anomalies, etc), and all sorts of sleet IMBY. 

Obviously nowhere near the strength.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM came in a bit colder. It is essentially a snow bomb for interior SNE NW of pike and 495 and right up through CNE and NNE. 

I'm amazed at the confidence levels I'm hearing from fellow forecasters around here. I have no real strong conviction other than I think this will be a mostly cold event up here. Whether that's 6+ snow or 1+ QPF of sleet, I don't know.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah it's sort of '93-esque with the big severe outbreak, huge anomalies in the south (SLP, u wind anomalies, etc), and all sorts of sleet IMBY. 

Obviously nowhere near the strength.

Obviously surface pressures are higher but watching WV and that squall line brought me back to that kind of evolution.  Chris should give us an analog. Get the feeling a lot of Mets are struggling mighty with the thermals and are depending heavily on each model run.  The deep easterly flow is going to cause upslope cooling in the Berkshires Greens and NORH County. The secondary being further east may rob NNE of moisture 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Obviously surface pressures are higher but watching WV and that squall line brought me back to that kind of evolution.  Chris should give us an analog. Get the feeling a lot of Mets are struggling mighty with the thermals and are depending heavily on each model run.  The deep easterly flow is going to cause upslope cooling in the Berkshires Greens and NORH County. The secondary being further east may rob NNE of moisture 

The forecast is much easier down this way than up north. I think the issue for us is what happens in NW CT - I'm not quite sure yet. May have to go like 3-5 up there if it looks like they'll flip between PL/SN. 

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The forecast is much easier down this way than up north. I think the issue for us is what happens in NW CT - I'm not quite sure yet. May have to go like 3-5 up there if it looks like they'll flip between PL/SN. 

Critical timing for Monday afternoon rush with pounding sleet.

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I think there's still a significant lack of confidence around hr 42 to hr 48. The SLP track still hops around on most guidance, taking it over LI, but then eventually near the BM. If we see a more continuous track along the BM rather than the anomalous jump to LI and then due east, this would stay colder for all of us...

 

6z GEFS supports a BM track...

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Obviously surface pressures are higher but watching WV and that squall line brought me back to that kind of evolution.  Chris should give us an analog. Get the feeling a lot of Mets are struggling mighty with the thermals and are depending heavily on each model run.  The deep easterly flow is going to cause upslope cooling in the Berkshires Greens and NORH County. The secondary being further east may rob NNE of moisture 

I think they were pretty substantially different, but that's just me I guess. That sent a serial derecho through Cuba. Have at your analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F024&rundt=2017012200&map=thbSVR

There are a few good severe events in there.

1993_superstorm_sat.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think there's still a great deal of uncertainty around hr 42 to hr 48. The SLP track still hops around on most guidance, taking it over LI, but then eventually near the BM. If we see a more continuous track along the BM rather than the anomalous jump to LI and then due east, this would stay colder for all of us...

 

6z GEFS supports a BM track...

Yea...big diff.

Not just where it passes, but how it gets there that determines whether mid levels flood with warmth.

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