mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Whenever that signal shows up consistently on models it almost always happens up hereWhenever that signal shows up consistently on models it almost always happens up here But not usually on a strong easterly flow due to the elevation from the Merrimack River up to where we are that usually provides good QPSBut not usually on a strong easterly flow due to the elevation from the Merrimack River up to where we are that usually provides good QPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 m_wGW today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Here's the gridpoint plot from the nam at 45hr. I wanted to use 48hr, but I think the Plym site uses 32km for the 6hrlys and the 12km for the 3hrly ones in between. Definitely some cool omega related pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 As a news junkie I have been so wrapped up in this inauguration and the marches etc. that I have not even followed this storm over the past couple of days. Is a storm coming? Time to get back to my normal life. Going to have to read a bunch and catch up. Seems like a complicated mess? Save me an hours time Brian/Chris. Snow to ice to freezing rain ending as some snow for Plymouth NH? Okay, I'll stop being lazy and read up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: As a news junkie I have been so wrapped up in this inauguration and the marches etc. that I have not even followed this storm over the past couple of days. Is a storm coming? Time to get back to my normal life. Going to have to read a bunch and catch up. Seems like a complicated mess? Save me an hours time Brian/Chris. Snow to ice to freezing rain ending as some snow for Plymouth NH? Okay, I'll stop being lazy and read up... I'd say mostly snow and sleet, some freezing rain, don't rule out drizzle in addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'm gathering that frozen precip will be confined to the interior in this setup? Any chance coastal NH/ME get in on anything? I heard talk of possible coastal enhancement later tonight before the main event but not sure that still stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: GGW. Meaning evolution and severe down south, winds and ULL placement, overwhelming sleet sign and qpf. Ryan agrees with me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Meaning evolution and severe down south, winds and ULL placement, overwhelming sleet sign and qpf. Ryan agrees with me . I mean we could probably find a better comp than one of the strongest low pressures ever observed over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Meaning evolution and severe down south, winds and ULL placement, overwhelming sleet sign and qpf. Ryan agrees with me . Yeah it's sort of '93-esque with the big severe outbreak, huge anomalies in the south (SLP, u wind anomalies, etc), and all sorts of sleet IMBY. Obviously nowhere near the strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 GGEM came in a bit colder. It is essentially a snow bomb for interior SNE NW of pike and 495 and right up through CNE and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM came in a bit colder. It is essentially a snow bomb for interior SNE NW of pike and 495 and right up through CNE and NNE. I'm amazed at the confidence levels I'm hearing from fellow forecasters around here. I have no real strong conviction other than I think this will be a mostly cold event up here. Whether that's 6+ snow or 1+ QPF of sleet, I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah it's sort of '93-esque with the big severe outbreak, huge anomalies in the south (SLP, u wind anomalies, etc), and all sorts of sleet IMBY. Obviously nowhere near the strength. Obviously surface pressures are higher but watching WV and that squall line brought me back to that kind of evolution. Chris should give us an analog. Get the feeling a lot of Mets are struggling mighty with the thermals and are depending heavily on each model run. The deep easterly flow is going to cause upslope cooling in the Berkshires Greens and NORH County. The secondary being further east may rob NNE of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Obviously surface pressures are higher but watching WV and that squall line brought me back to that kind of evolution. Chris should give us an analog. Get the feeling a lot of Mets are struggling mighty with the thermals and are depending heavily on each model run. The deep easterly flow is going to cause upslope cooling in the Berkshires Greens and NORH County. The secondary being further east may rob NNE of moisture The forecast is much easier down this way than up north. I think the issue for us is what happens in NW CT - I'm not quite sure yet. May have to go like 3-5 up there if it looks like they'll flip between PL/SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'd say mostly snow and sleet, some freezing rain, don't rule out drizzle in addition. Thanks Ocean. I guess cold front has slipped through. Temp was 40F couple of hours ago but slipping back. 37.5F and slowly falling now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I still think the GFS being as snowy as it is - even along the coast--is a pretty big red flag that this will come in colder than expected given its warm bias for BL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The forecast is much easier down this way than up north. I think the issue for us is what happens in NW CT - I'm not quite sure yet. May have to go like 3-5 up there if it looks like they'll flip between PL/SN. Critical timing for Monday afternoon rush with pounding sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 interesting how the 12z gfs shifted SE with the 5H closed low significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: m_wGW today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM came in a bit colder. It is essentially a snow bomb for interior SNE NW of pike and 495 and right up through CNE and NNE. Is this due to the models getting a better read on the High What caused the 5H low to shift SE on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I think there's still a significant lack of confidence around hr 42 to hr 48. The SLP track still hops around on most guidance, taking it over LI, but then eventually near the BM. If we see a more continuous track along the BM rather than the anomalous jump to LI and then due east, this would stay colder for all of us... 6z GEFS supports a BM track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Obviously surface pressures are higher but watching WV and that squall line brought me back to that kind of evolution. Chris should give us an analog. Get the feeling a lot of Mets are struggling mighty with the thermals and are depending heavily on each model run. The deep easterly flow is going to cause upslope cooling in the Berkshires Greens and NORH County. The secondary being further east may rob NNE of moisture I think they were pretty substantially different, but that's just me I guess. That sent a serial derecho through Cuba. Have at your analogs http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F024&rundt=2017012200&map=thbSVR There are a few good severe events in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: interesting how the 12z gfs shifted SE with the 5H closed low significantly I noted this trend in my blog post last night, and have identified that as something to watch. Good catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Steve, I will say....if you showed me that image right now without knowing better, it would conjure up visions of 3/93. Well developed cyclone anomalously far south near the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: m_wGW today It's a combination of, for me, a surreal political catastrophe, along with showing our house almost everyday, planning where to live while the new one is built, and then the somewhat frustrating winter. I've earned my melt. Maybe the gem is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I think there's still a great deal of uncertainty around hr 42 to hr 48. The SLP track still hops around on most guidance, taking it over LI, but then eventually near the BM. If we see a more continuous track along the BM rather than the anomalous jump to LI and then due east, this would stay colder for all of us... 6z GEFS supports a BM track... Yea...big diff. Not just where it passes, but how it gets there that determines whether mid levels flood with warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Steve, I will say....if you showed me that image right now without knowing better, it would conjure up visions of 3/93. Well developed cyclone anomalously far south near the GOM That was an image of 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: That was an image of 1993. Alrighty, then- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Alrighty, then- Poor science-ing on my part. I should always label. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: The satellite image looks absolutely nothing like 93 and it wont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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