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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

FWIW, the 12z raob from CAR was colder than any model at -11C at 850 mb.

Hypothetically speaking... if not one winter storm criteria gets met for icing (half inch or more glaze) and/or snow (6-7"+) .... do you still issue a Winter Storm Watch and Warning for the sheer magnitude of possible mixed precipitation?

I feel like I've seen that happen...where like 1" of QPF is expected to fall as something wintry so a warning gets issued even noting in the AFD that it may not meet one specific criteria?

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Hypothetically speaking... if not one winter storm criteria gets met for icing (half inch or more glaze) and/or snow (6-7"+) .... do you still issue a Winter Storm Watch and Warning for the sheer magnitude of possible mixed precipitation?

I feel like I've seen that happen...where like 1" of QPF is expected to fall as something wintry so a warning gets issued even noting in the AFD that it may not meet one specific criteria?

We've tried this before and got in trouble for it. Like 3" of snow and 0.25" glaze = warning (1/2 snow criteria, 1/2 freezing rain criteria). Even though it was linked to in a directive from the NWS, we were told this is not accurate. But our verification policy is kind of silly anyway.

I probably would issue a watch for that, and in this case it makes sense, because we are a degree or two from verifying one or the other probably.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The 12z GYX raob is pretty mild below 700 mb, but we do have some room for wet bulbing above 850 mb. And the winds show a nice CAA pattern to them.

CAR on the other hand is a nice looking sounding ahead of an approaching system.

Congrats to the moose in the Allagash.

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This was the 06z GFS valid 09z Tue. Image is surface wet bulb, and white lines are max wet bulb in the 0-6km layer. The GFS is showing surface wetbulb matching max wet bulb aloft, which would be pretty snowy for most people. It is also showing a little downslope warming on the NW side of the mountains, leading to pockets of mixing there. We'll see how it changes at 12z shortly.

GFS_WetBulb.jpeg

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19 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Very close to a snow profile at KFIT at hour 48 - still a touch too warm though

IMG_0130.GIF

 

Yep this is why I was taking about. NAM almost washes the warm layer out from the previous panel. Kind of interesting...esp given the euro doesn't bother getting it all that warm to begin with in that 800 layer. 

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