powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 No lack of moisture... 4km NAM brings up to 6" to eastern Mass. Look at that gradient in SVT...wow. 2-2.5" QPF in the eastern side of Bennington County while DDH is progged at 0.2" on the western side of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 49 minutes ago, scoob40 said: Any snow left in Greenfield proper or just at your digs ? Some neighborhoods in town have snowy yards but it's spotty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: No lack of moisture... 4km NAM brings up to 6" to eastern Mass. Even -1/3rd is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 FWIW, the 12z raob from CAR was colder than any model at -11C at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This actually looks pretty much what I'm thinking. A general 1-5" snow with the most in south/eastern VT and southern NH. But by and large its just a lot of sleet for a lot of NNE/CNE and freezing rain in some of the downslope zone west of the ridges/crests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 31 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: You would think that from ORH north, it will snow if the precip rates are are strong enough. It's a lot of sleet for us and not close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: FWIW, the 12z raob from CAR was colder than any model at -11C at 850 mb. Hypothetically speaking... if not one winter storm criteria gets met for icing (half inch or more glaze) and/or snow (6-7"+) .... do you still issue a Winter Storm Watch and Warning for the sheer magnitude of possible mixed precipitation? I feel like I've seen that happen...where like 1" of QPF is expected to fall as something wintry so a warning gets issued even noting in the AFD that it may not meet one specific criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 57 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: sure youll eventually rain but the sleet mix fest is real. how does your area do with CAD? We do CAD very well here depending on the set up. I'm expecting an hour or two of good snow then raging pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's a lot of sleet for us and not close. Yup that's the way I'm leaning up here too...Be shoveling sleet. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hypothetically speaking... if not one winter storm criteria gets met for icing (half inch or more glaze) and/or snow (6-7"+) .... do you still issue a Winter Storm Watch and Warning for the sheer magnitude of possible mixed precipitation? I feel like I've seen that happen...where like 1" of QPF is expected to fall as something wintry so a warning gets issued even noting in the AFD that it may not meet one specific criteria? We've tried this before and got in trouble for it. Like 3" of snow and 0.25" glaze = warning (1/2 snow criteria, 1/2 freezing rain criteria). Even though it was linked to in a directive from the NWS, we were told this is not accurate. But our verification policy is kind of silly anyway. I probably would issue a watch for that, and in this case it makes sense, because we are a degree or two from verifying one or the other probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's a lot of sleet for us and not close. Not going to erode those warm layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Looking forward to my free car wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: FWIW, the 12z raob from CAR was colder than any model at -11C at 850 mb. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The 12z GYX raob is pretty mild below 700 mb, but we do have some room for wet bulbing above 850 mb. And the winds show a nice CAA pattern to them. CAR on the other hand is a nice looking sounding ahead of an approaching system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The 12z GYX raob is pretty mild below 700 mb, but we do have some room for wet bulbing above 850 mb. And the winds show a nice CAA pattern to them. CAR on the other hand is a nice looking sounding ahead of an approaching system. Congrats to the moose in the Allagash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Notice the blue wet bulb temp above 850 mb at GYX, but we'll need CAA to change the lower part of that sounding. CAR is locked and loaded though, ready to wet bulb right into the snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 RGEM is a lot of sleet. Snow looks confined to ME and even that looks minimal. W MA up in VT look under the gun for icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Congrats to the moose in the Allagash. County winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 I can't help but draw comparisons to 3-13-93 only warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This was the 06z GFS valid 09z Tue. Image is surface wet bulb, and white lines are max wet bulb in the 0-6km layer. The GFS is showing surface wetbulb matching max wet bulb aloft, which would be pretty snowy for most people. It is also showing a little downslope warming on the NW side of the mountains, leading to pockets of mixing there. We'll see how it changes at 12z shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Geez, I think the GFS might've ticked colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Geez, I think the GFS might've ticked colder. Looked like it to me, sfc and aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I can't help but draw comparisons to 3-13-93 only warmer. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Colder rain for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: Looked like it to me, sfc and aloft Same plot as above, just the 12z run valid at 09z Tue. That -1.2C wet bulb isotherm traces the CAD areas well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: What? GGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, White Rain said: Very close to a snow profile at KFIT at hour 48 - still a touch too warm though Yep this is why I was taking about. NAM almost washes the warm layer out from the previous panel. Kind of interesting...esp given the euro doesn't bother getting it all that warm to begin with in that 800 layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Get me some QPF up here Chris. The GFS has a nice <0.25" anti-jack around Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Get me some QPF up here Chris. The GFS has a nice <0.25" anti-jack around Plymouth. Yeah, it tries to resolve the elevation, but it just doesn't know where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Get me some QPF up here Chris. The GFS has a nice <0.25" anti-jack around Plymouth. Whenever that signal shows up consistently on models it almost always happens up hereWhenever that signal shows up consistently on models it almost always happens up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.