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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Jeebus, I thought that was he least of our problems. Lol at this storm.  The tics have been colder colder colder each cycle with a storm out of the gulf and now we don't have qpf.  This has slowly but surely become another below average winter and I'm not convinced its going to change, no matter what some model says.  Dry and chilly on the menu now.

LOL, I wouldn't melt.

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Jeebus, I thought that was he least of our problems. Lol at this storm.  The tics have been colder colder colder each cycle with a storm out of the gulf and now we don't have qpf.  This has slowly but surely become another below average winter and I'm not convinced its going to change, no matter what some model says.  Dry and chilly on the menu now.

Heh...no need to melt. We'll still get some decent snow and sleet, but right now the models have us between the best areas of forcing. There's still time for some slight changes though.

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Jeebus, I thought that was he least of our problems. Lol at this storm.  The tics have been colder colder colder each cycle with a storm out of the gulf and now we don't have qpf.  This has slowly but surely become another below average winter and I'm not convinced its going to change, no matter what some model says.  Dry and chilly on the menu now.

You will get white material of some sort, which is more than other areas.  This never looked like a 8-14" snow event over a wide area.

I think we see widespread 2-6" type snow/sleet accums in NNE/CNE.

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11 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Jeebus, I thought that was he least of our problems. Lol at this storm.  The tics have been colder colder colder each cycle with a storm out of the gulf and now we don't have qpf.  This has slowly but surely become another below average winter and I'm not convinced its going to change, no matter what some model says.  Dry and chilly on the menu now.

Rather have that with 3-6 of snow and ice than an inch of boring rain wire to wire like SNE . But that's me

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

 If everything ticked colder overnight then why didn't mine and Jeff and Brian's snowfall forecast worsen significantly from 3 to 7 inches to 1 to 3 inches? Is it simply forecaster interpretation or did the models actually change to be less snow?  

:bag:

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a mighty warm tongue, so probably lots of sleet there. The soundings still look a little weird to me. Either subsidence in the DGZ like the GFS has, or more shallow lift below the DGZ.  The dacks west of Lake Champlain could get a dumping closer to the deformation area.

Quick look: Euro is still chilly (Dendrite stays below freezing aloft for the duration just about). GFS and NAM are much warmer and sleety, but the GFS still mix out that shallow warmer layer and have a snow profile around 09z. 

I am a touch confused at how we arrived at our forecast amounts last night. Again. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The other thing is the forcing really is closer to the coast.  I don't see a huge deformation or CCB other than a massive arc of low to mid level lift heading north. So that can cause downwind issues from the deep forcing closer to the coast.  Then again the flow banks up against the high terrain up in NH and ME which helps.

Yeah, I mean we're out of the game for deformation band type forcing. I see mainly LLJ forced precip lifting N in a band as you say. 

Now that kind of southerly and easterly flow plus deep subtropical connection should mean plenty of moisture. But given the CAD, you can get some weird subsidence zones just beyond the coastal front. 

I do think slamming this LLJ into the cold dome of the high should wring out a decent QPF event though.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, I mean we're out of the game for deformation band type forcing. I see mainly LLJ forced precip lifting N in a band as you say. 

Now that kind of southerly and easterly flow plus deep subtropical connection should mean plenty of moisture. But given the CAD, you can get some weird subsidence zones just beyond the coastal front. 

I do think slamming this LLJ into the cold dome of the high should wring out a decent QPF event though.

Yeah they'll be a lot of moisture for sure. But as you say...maybe some weird subby zones. I wish I could see more deeper euro guidance other than what I'm limited to, but sounds pretty cold in the lakes region.  

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah they'll be a lot of moisture for sure. But as you say...maybe some weird subby zones. I wish I could see more deeper euro guidance other than what I'm limited to, but sounds pretty cold in the lakes region.  

Seriously. In Brian's hood, a time height view has him at a maximum temp of -0.2C at 12 Tue (all subfreezing before that too), and that's at the surface. Aloft the warmest temp I can find is like -1.2C around 700 mb. So could it be a degree warmer than that? Sure, but it's still a solid sleet sounding.

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43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Heh...no need to melt. We'll still get some decent snow and sleet, but right now the models have us between the best areas of forcing. There's still time for some slight changes though.

Any melt I have in here isn't matched by the melt ouside my door the last few days. Early mud season

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

34F. w/ drizzle here at the moment, good practice for Tuesday.  Gets me in the mood for cold rain. 

 

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

34F. w/ drizzle here at the moment, good practice for Tuesday.  Gets me in the mood for cold rain. 

Any snow left in Greenfield proper or just at your digs ?

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16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Seriously. In Brian's hood, a time height view has him at a maximum temp of -0.2C at 12 Tue (all subfreezing before that too), and that's at the surface. Aloft the warmest temp I can find is like -1.2C around 700 mb. So could it be a degree warmer than that? Sure, but it's still a solid sleet sounding.

Will be a good test for the euro too. The nam has done well with tricky warm layers, but this is a setup with a stout high and the low goes well SE of  central NH.

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18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Seriously. In Brian's hood, a time height view has him at a maximum temp of -0.2C at 12 Tue (all subfreezing before that too), and that's at the surface. Aloft the warmest temp I can find is like -1.2C around 700 mb. So could it be a degree warmer than that? Sure, but it's still a solid sleet sounding.

Where do you find those on WxBell...been looking all over. 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Man that EURO profile up here at MVL is cold though.

900mb temps of under -5C...that's low 20s. 

Scalping.

Its interesting its colder in the 850-750 layer down this way. That cross section for KASH is essentially sub-freezing through 10-12z. Maybe deeper layer CAD/lift offsets it for a time

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33 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

So I know that there has been a lot of discussion about the below-average snowfalls down in the Mid-Atlantic.  Has that been the case for New England as well thus far this winter?

Wrong topic thread.  Try posting in banter thread.

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