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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Small adjustment would keep that south for the critical period in question....Steve is talking like it's +6C.

Look, I don't think I'm going to see much snow, but it looks more interesting than it did last night.....trend will probably reverse again, but is what it is.

Razor's edge for some right now.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Small adjustment would keep that south for the critical period in question....Steve is talking like it's +6C.

Look, I don't think I'm going to see much snow, but it looks more interesting than it did last night.....trend will probably reverse again, but is what it is.

I'd def keep ok eye on it. Agreed on your approach. Not likely that this will trend into a big snow event, but it's enough of a chance to monitor it closely....we aren't talking huge changes. Just one more solid tick...of course, every time we've said that it trends the other way before trending back to our current spot again...we keep clawing back to 3 games out of first place every time we fall further back, but it's past Labor Day now...time to make a run at the division or shut up. We still watch and hope, but the time is ticking away. 

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What a bizarre storm this is. I just looked at the temps aloft. Was shocked to see 850mb. 

This is not a setup that bodes well for anyone. Screaming winds onshore. Cold 850, but marginal at 700. Toasty at 925mb and of course at surface. NNE will get more snow but this is a rain event for SNE in majority.

Of course many have already probably stated this, but I was busy and haven't read any pages back. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Small adjustment would keep that south for the critical period in question....Steve is talking like it's +6C.

Look, I don't think I'm going to see much snow, but it looks more interesting than it did last night.....trend will probably reverse again, but is what it is.

Yeah cuz that's exactly what I said, good luck on the CP with this look

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There is still a pretty big spread in model guidance over ptype this far south...some guidance has decent sleet/snow over ORH county and Berks while others is not that much with a lot of rain. Gonna have to resolve this fairly soon I'd think. 

 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There is still a pretty big spread in model guidance over ptype this far south...some guidance has decent sleet/snow over ORH county and Berks while others is not that much with a lot of rain. Gonna have to resolve this fairly soon I'd think. 

 

Yes, and make no mistake about it...I expect a lot of rain....but I think some are exaggerating just how far off we are from a snow event. We need a huge adjustment relative to the short lead time being at day 2.5, so I think maybe that is what isn't being articulated clearly.

The changes we need are daunting given the short lead, but that is all........the mid levels are simply not that warm north of the pike during the crucial interval of time. As currently modeled, its very close until the latter stages of the event, when the warmth really overtakes the mid levels north of the pike.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, and make no mistake about it...I expect a lot of rain....but I think some are exaggerating just how far off we are from a snow event. We need a huge adjustment relative to the short lead time being at day 2.5, so I think maybe that is what isn't being articulated clearly.

The changes we need are daunting given the short lead, but that is all........the mid levels are simply not that warm north of the pike during the crucial interval of time.

Yeah during that 00z-06z Tuesday time frame it's close on some guidance. We've seen bigger shifts before in this lead time so it's certainly worth watching...but definitely an uphill battle. 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why is it so hard to have this be 31.8 degree icestorm. I just don't get it. They do it in the plains every year 

The high is actually in a pretty good spot for an ice storm but the low level cold just doesn't quite surge enough under the mild airmass. 

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37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why would you post those ? 

#meltdown

And Steve those are not allowed to be shared. Please stop sharing weatherbell Euro images unless they're allowed - i.e. not raw data only value added stuff. A lot of the stuff you're posting violates the TOS. 

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