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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Obviously but there had been talk of a prolonged period of sleet in CT.. and his answer was boat.

So I'm guessing that means 50 and rain wire to wire while ORH north gets crushed.

Enjoy your. 01 ping of a sleet pellet it's the only sleet pellet you got.

ecmwf_ptype_a_boston_21.png

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That warm layer is something else on the Euro - should be a scalp fest for the Berks I think.

KPSF_2017012112_xt_ll_240.png

Wonder what that looks like on the eastern slope as Pittsfield is on the west side right?  Wonder if there'd be any cooling from forced parcel ascent into the east side there.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Enjoy your. 01 ping of a sleet pellet it's the only sleet pellet you got.

ecmwf_ptype_a_boston_21.png

 Those maps seem a little bit off with their placement.  That would indicate a pretty significant ice storm for Pittsfield and North Adams while MPM doesn't really get too much in the way of anything wintery.  

All ice with not much sleet for N Berks?

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Anybody locking this thing one way or another is out to lunch. There is still plenty of room to maneuver.

That's funny, cuz two days ago people were thinking that any room for positive trending, was running out of time lol.  

Now two days later, and we're still trending this thing...and positively for a good bunch(not necessarily for CT/SNE peeps), but it's trending nonetheless. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

That's funny, cuz two days ago people were thinking that any room for positive trending, was running out of time lol.  

Now two days later, and we're still trending this thing...and positively for a good bunch(not necessarily for CT/SNE peeps), but it's trending nonetheless. 

For interior folks, a degree here or there aloft is going make a huge difference. And locking that at day 3 is a bad idea. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

That's funny, cuz two days ago people were thinking that any room for positive trending, was running out of time lol.  

Now two days later, and we're still trending this thing...and positively for a good bunch(not necessarily for CT/SNE peeps), but it's trending nonetheless. 

We may get to even a nowcast situation

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

For interior folks, a degree here or there aloft is going make a huge difference. And locking that at day 3 is a bad idea. 

Oh I totally agree!!  But there was talk two days ago about running out of time for changes...and I thought to myself, there's still plenty of time for this thing to change for the better/or worse!  

 

Just find it funny that we give up too fast sometimes on systems(and I can be guilty of this myself many times also), and this year the trend with a lot of these systems has been close in...and this one is no exception.

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Can anyone suggest a source for the vertical time cross-section graphics of soundings at any given location (the graphics that OceanStWx and CTRain posted above)?

I can't find those on weatherbell or quick internet search, and definitely easier than looking at multiple skewT's at different time points.

TIA

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43 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Those maps seem a little bit off with their placement.  That would indicate a pretty significant ice storm for Pittsfield and North Adams while MPM doesn't really get too much in the way of anything wintery.  

All ice with not much sleet for N Berks?

Ice is sleet on those maps I believe...so it is a lot of sleet for the Berk's.  The one that says freezing rain is probably freezing rain. 

MPM gets a lot of wintery mix there when you add up all the p-types.

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10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Can anyone suggest a source for the vertical time cross-section graphics of soundings at any given location (the graphics that OceanStWx and CTRain posted above)?

I can't find those on weatherbell or quick internet search, and definitely easier than looking at multiple skewT's at different time points.

TIA

They are on WeatherBell for the Euro. Under meteograms and " EPS/ECMWF (more meteograms) "

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The main issue in this area are the 2M temps, as mid levels hold out for a major, major snowfall.

I would think that 2m temps will continue to trend downward as we close-

 

May not have to head very far up to get walloped.

So Ray if next model runs continue colder, still way too early to "lock in"?

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The main issue in this area are the 2M temps, as mid levels hold out for a major, major snowfall.

I would think that 2m temps will continue to trend downward as we close-

 

May not have to head very far up to get walloped.

Mid levels are very warm and pretty deep, cooling low levels will make for sleet and frzrn.  Not many heavy snowstorms with a strongly negative tilted ULL to our SW

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Between 0-1C on the Euro, but it comes in like a wall. Pretty isothermal from 850 to 700 mb. GFS gives you a skinny layer of like 0.5C maybe a hair below 800 mb.

Small adjustment would keep that south for the critical period in question....Steve is talking like it's +6C.

Look, I don't think I'm going to see much snow, but it looks more interesting than it did last night.....trend will probably reverse again, but is what it is.

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