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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to watch for potential light snows before the main event with the onshore flow late Sunday night and early Monday. Esp over east facing terrain in interior. Almost all guidance is hinting at this. The setup is pretty classic too. 

 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I mentioned that earlier, it looks like a CF type enhancement too from near the Maine coast all the way into NE MA or SNH. It makes sense.

Our local WRF is hitting that hard with its PoP. 

With that high squeezing down Sunday night, 850 temps should get cold enough to produce some ocean effect convective showers too.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

 

Our local WRF is hitting that hard with its PoP. 

With that high squeezing down Sunday night, 850 temps should get cold enough to produce some ocean effect convective showers too.

What's it showing down in bath?  I'll be doing a predawn commute to boston Monday morning.  Tia.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Our local WRF is hitting that hard with its PoP. 

With that high squeezing down Sunday night, 850 temps should get cold enough to produce some ocean effect convective showers too.

I remember a certain setup similar this week a couple of years ago with your pre.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

What's it showing down in bath?  I'll be doing a predawn commute to boston Monday morning.  Tia.

Some threat for a snow shower near Bath, but I think the focus will be SW of there where winds are more onshore. So maybe your drive through NH and the York tolls will be the most likely spot to run into one.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

06z was actually colder than the Euro up this way, so I can't say I'm all that surprised it has edged warmer.

How was the euro between 850-700? I cant see around 800. GFS is still alot colder than the NAM in those levels. More snow vs sleet in NNE until they dryslot

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1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

How was the euro between 850-700? GFS is still alot colder than the NAM in those levels. More snow vs sleet in NNE until they dryslot

For like ASH it has this sliver of 0-1C air just above 800 mb. The surface is progged to be > 32F, but regardless that looks like a sleet sounding to me. Around 09z would probably flip to rain as the warm nose hits +5C centered around 850 mb.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

For like ASH it has this sliver of 0-1C air just above 800 mb. The surface is progged to be > 32F, but regardless that looks like a sleet sounding to me. Around 09z would probably flip to rain as the warm nose hits +5C centered around 850 mb.

I'm a bit skeptical of the sfc prog...guidance seems to have the cold wedge a bit too far west in my eyes looking at the synoptics of the high. 

Maybe it's right but I feel like they always want to make the sfc low off to the south and southwest too symmetrical and the flow too geostrophic at sfc. 

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It wont take a whole lot so thats a plus

The 12z GFS was the most impressive snow map for SENH this season. Excluding the coast it was 8-12". Even the coast shows 2-5". I'll take that and run with it considering the GFS BL warm bias...

We're edging closer to a big winter event here..

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