powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: That is not what the dude said Ryan, he said it would be favored. no reason for this post to Kev he just asked a questions as did I . Sure its a reasonable solution but certainly no solution is favored over the other. I'm thinking he is just saying favored because that's what model guidance has had so far. And he was posting from Taunton saying a warmer solution is favored, which is likely a very reasonable statement from his point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea but who is talking about me, certainly the EPS/GEFS solution in ORH county and the Berks is much more reasonable than the 18Z GFS, but you go with that. OK... reading comprehension FTL from you. All options on the table... for people like Kevin who want to lock in a foot of paste in his backyard... have at it. I'll be laughing when he gets hours of +RAPL. Anyway not sure what all the angst is about the 18z GFS... seems like only a minor change with the blocking signature and a pretty reasonable final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: I'd be interested in the analogs for this, particularly if there are any for late Jan/early Feb. No way the 18z gfs puts most of NNE into plain rain with that track and intensity. Surface winds are cranking out of the N/NNE/NNW throughout the duration of the storm. The GFS surface temps look like this is happening in early April... well theres Jan 1998..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'm thinking he is just saying favored because that's what model guidance has had so far. And he was posting from Taunton saying a warmer solution is favored, which is likely a very reasonable statement from his point of view. Yea I don't expect much if anything but i guess Taunton was never in the game so a 43 degree rain is favored over a 36 degree rain, but it baffles me to think in a region wide sense why warmer is favored. Your not even in the equation for anything but snow no matter what happens, been a Stowe winter as we thought and just will get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: why is it favored may I ask? Maybe favored isn't the right word, but the airmass is garbage.... a lot of things need to go right for big snows outside of NNE. I don't know how anyone can favor big snows right now given the look, at this moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: well theres Jan 1998..... Closest analog I can find for rain with that type of track and ML low is Feb 24, 1998...but a big difference is that system had a garbage high pressure location sliding east of Nova Scotia. The high location on this system has me more optimistic than some of the guidance might suggest...but we'll see. Still plenty of time for things to look different. That block is pretty crucial in the final outcome...plus whatever interaction of energy going on down south which creates smaller nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea I don't expect much if anything but i guess Taunton was never in the game so a 43 degree rain is favored over a 36 degree rain, but it baffles me to think in a region wide sense why warmer is favored. Your not even in the equation for anything but snow no matter what happens, been a stowe winter as we thought and just will get better. It's just a garbage airmass. These super high thickness snows are always possible but it's hard to pull off. Things have to go just right. So yeah I'd say it's more likely given the look that this is rainy for most but who knows maybe we'll luck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: OK... reading comprehension FTL from you. All options on the table... for people like Kevin who want to lock in a foot of paste in his backyard... have at it. I'll be laughing when he gets hours of +RAPL. Anyway not sure what all the angst is about the 18z GFS... seems like only a minor change with the blocking signature and a pretty reasonable final solution. all that being said I think some snow, sleet and zr are far more likely here than all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe favored isn't the right word, but the airmass is garbage.... a lot of things need to go right for big snows outside of NNE. I don't know how anyone can favor big snows right now given the look, at this moment well i will tell you if I was MPM and the VT crew and Mainers interior I would be so stoked but I guess they are no one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Looks like I was right yesterday about this storm making it's own cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: well theres Jan 1998..... 60s in NYC, cold rain for SNE, marginal ice/rain in S.Maine, central Maine/N.NH-VT their worst ice storm ever, Maine mts giant sleetfest, N.Maine 20-27" with temps in teens. Doubt I'll ever see such a latitude sandwich ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It's just a garbage airmass. These super high thickness snows are always possible but it's hard to pull off. Things have to go just right. So yeah I'd say it's more likely given the look that this is rainy for most but who knows maybe we'll luck out. Definitely not a CP snowstorm but for many in the interior its better than the 50s and heavy rain to Maine some forecasted Mon Tues Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea I don't expect much if anything but i guess Taunton was never in the game so a 43 degree rain is favored over a 36 degree rain, but it baffles me to think in a region wide sense why warmer is favored. Your not even in the equation for anything but snow no matter what happens, been a Stowe winter as we thought and just will get better. Yeah to be honest my opinion has switched to snow or cirrus haha. Long way to go at 100+ hours out. I could see this exiting stage right earlier than models think but there is a huge circulation. Big banding like a few hundred miles NW of the low haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, tamarack said: 60s in NYC, cold rain for SNE, marginal ice/rain in S.Maine, central Maine/N.NH-VT their worst ice storm ever, Maine mts giant sleetfest, N.Maine 20-27" with temps in teens. Doubt I'll ever see such a latitude sandwich ever again. I would not in the least be surprised if this turns into an ice storm for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Definitely not a CP snowstorm but for many in the interior its better than the 50s and heavy rain to Maine some forecasted Mon Tues Wed. I've had rain and sleet in the forecast since Tuesday so the signal for at least some mix has been there for about 48 hours+ now. Going to be tough to get more than that for many in my area but who knows - it could thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Definitely not a CP snowstorm but for many in the interior its better than the 50s and heavy rain to Maine some forecasted Mon Tues Wed. It very well might be a CP snowstorm. Look at the EPS solutions. No warm tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: well i will tell you if I was MPM and the VT crew and Mainers interior I would be so stoked but I guess they are no one Nobody is telling them not to be stoked. But we've known that this was favorable for them for a while now. I feel like people are being unrealistic about the current look though. It may trend better... but for a lot of posters on this board.. it's pretty meh right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Definitely not a CP snowstorm but for many in the interior its better than the 50s and heavy rain to Maine some forecasted Mon Tues Wed. There were some EPS members that got it done for the CP...then again big difference in say the NE Mass/NH/ME CP and say the south shore of CT. I looped some of those SE ensemble members and you can see how it could snow on the CP...the low goes pretty much east off the Carolinas and then hooks north a bit in those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nobody is telling them not to be stoked. But we've known that this was favorable for them for a while now. I feel like people are being unrealistic about the current look though. It may trend better... but for a lot of posters on this board.. it's pretty meh right now Based on what? What besides 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It very well might be a CP snowstorm. Look at the EPS solutions. No warm tracks You're right there are a couple EPS members with a snowstorm for the CP...but you're wrong about no warm tracks. There most certainly are some that look like yesterday's models, with biggest snows like NW of ART lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I've had rain and sleet in the forecast since Tuesday so the signal for at least some mix has been there for about 48 hours+ now. Going to be tough to get more than that for many in my area but who knows - it could thread the needle. Did not mean you. Hi Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: You're right there are a couple EPS members with a snowstorm for the CP...but you're wrong about no warm tracks. There most certainly are some that look like yesterday's models, with biggest snows like NW of ART lol. Well I saw the low placements all offshore on the mean. I didn't see the individual members that you did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah to be honest my opinion has switched to snow or cirrus haha. Long way to go at 100+ hours out. I could see this exiting stage right earlier than models think but there is a huge circulation. Big banding like a few hundred miles NW of the low haha. We are at hr 90 or less right now, Precip gets in here on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 What the F in here? It's a garbage airmass. But if you're looking for wintry solutions, HFd-ORH-Ray points N and W probably have the best shot. It could be 1" of snow and IP city. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I think there could be more of an IP issue with this if its not snow for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: We are at hr 90 or less right now, Precip gets in here on monday Yeah I guess, was just looking at the EPS and sure precip hits the SNE shore at about 90 hours.... but the meat of the system is in the 108-126 hour time frame as currently modeled at the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I think it's normal to say the situation is crap if you are in the southern coastal plain regions...the chances there are significantly lower. If you are in interior SNE, esp elevated....then there is absolutely reason to think this could be pretty wintry. Even more so further north obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah I guess, was just looking at the EPS and sure precip hits the SNE shore at about 90 hours.... but the meat of the system is in the 108-126 hour time frame as currently modeled at the 12z models. Well, We can start taking a more serious look at this starting tonight at 0z, Need to keep the block in place, Thats what i'm looking for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well I saw the low placements all offshore on the mean. I didn't see the individual members that you did Ahh yeah they all have another low develop off-shore, but there are some that take a primary low to like Toronto on the western side of the envelop...those are just as unlikely as the ones that just barely skirt SNE with light precip, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Well, We can start taking a more serious look at this starting tonight at 0z, Need to keep the block in place, Thats what i'm looking for at this point. Yeah its exciting now but hard to say where we'll be with say 36 hours left, and even that is prone to some big changes at that time frame, ha. A lot of model runs to go. Just keep bringing a storm system somewhere close to us and let the temperatures work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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