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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The difference in ULL track is amazing between guidance right now. This run has the H5 low over Erie PA at 66h. The previous run was over MD and some models like GGEM are over ORF. 

Just the difference between the 4km and 12km nam is ridiculous

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7 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

What changed synoptically that drove the models away from a more offshore solution from a couple days ago? Is it just the strength of the block over Hudson Bay?

That and also the strength of the southern stream low and the upstream flow. It's not just one factor. The Hudson block is probably the most important one...the snowiest solution was probably 12z on Thursday by the euro and it had the block significantly further west than more recent guidance. In fact, it still had the block closed over eastern Hudson Bay and James bay by 12z Monday while all the guidance now has it opened up over Quebec well to the east by 12z Monday. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That map makes zero sense. It's way too warm for that in CT.

Yeah I was gonna say...maybe N ORH county and Berks could get good snow on the 4km but everywhere else is either a scalping or just cold rain. Not sure what the algorithm is doing. This is probably a terrible storm to use clown maps in...more so than usual. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I was gonna say...maybe N ORH county and Berks could get good snow on the 4km but everywhere else is either a scalping or just cold rain. Not sure what the algorithm is doing. This is probably a terrible storm to use clown maps in...more so than usual. 

Counts sleet as snow, says it right on the map, use Pivotal Weather

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Gonna have to watch for potential light snows before the main event with the onshore flow late Sunday night and early Monday. Esp over east facing terrain in interior. Almost all guidance is hinting at this. The setup is pretty classic too. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to watch for potential light snows before the main event with the onshore flow late Sunday night and early Monday. Esp over east facing terrain in interior. Almost all guidance is hinting at this. The setup is pretty classic too. 

Yeah I mentioned that earlier, it looks like a CF type enhancement too from near the Maine coast all the way into NE MA or SNH. It makes sense.

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