wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The difference in ULL track is amazing between guidance right now. This run has the H5 low over Erie PA at 66h. The previous run was over MD and some models like GGEM are over ORF. Just the difference between the 4km and 12km nam is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I don't recall so much sleet/freezing rain being modeled in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I don't recall so much sleet/freezing rain being modeled in a long time We'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: What changed synoptically that drove the models away from a more offshore solution from a couple days ago? Is it just the strength of the block over Hudson Bay? That and also the strength of the southern stream low and the upstream flow. It's not just one factor. The Hudson block is probably the most important one...the snowiest solution was probably 12z on Thursday by the euro and it had the block significantly further west than more recent guidance. In fact, it still had the block closed over eastern Hudson Bay and James bay by 12z Monday while all the guidance now has it opened up over Quebec well to the east by 12z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Just the difference between the 4km and 12km nam is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: That map makes zero sense. It's way too warm for that in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That map makes zero sense. It's way too warm for that in CT. Yeah I was gonna say...maybe N ORH county and Berks could get good snow on the 4km but everywhere else is either a scalping or just cold rain. Not sure what the algorithm is doing. This is probably a terrible storm to use clown maps in...more so than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: That map makes zero sense. It's way too warm for that in CT. Yea... 3K shows a similar distribution. On crack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That map makes zero sense. It's way too warm for that in CT. Pivotal's maps were not that generous on the 4km Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That map makes zero sense. It's way too warm for that in CT. I was more referring to the ULL tracks between the two. 12km is over PIT and 4km is over the Maryland @ 60hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I was gonna say...maybe N ORH county and Berks could get good snow on the 4km but everywhere else is either a scalping or just cold rain. Not sure what the algorithm is doing. This is probably a terrible storm to use clown maps in...more so than usual. Counts sleet as snow, says it right on the map, use Pivotal Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: I was more referring to the ULL tracks between the two Yeah I just meant that algorithm. Even with sleet...that's not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Counts sleet as snow, says it right on the map, use Pivotal Weather The PW algorithm def looks more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That map makes zero sense. It's way too warm for that in CT. That's sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The PW algorithm def looks more realistic. However this is the 60 hrs 4 k sounding at weenie ridge, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Counts sleet as snow, says it right on the map, use Pivotal Weather Yeah, anytime you count sleet as 10:1 your clown map is going to look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: That's sleet Even so, tossed. makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The PW algorithm def looks more realistic. There clown maps seem to be more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, anytime you count sleet as 10:1 your clown map is going to look great. Yeah, Not happening, 2:1 maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: However this is the 60 hrs 4 k sounding at weenie ridge, nice For how long though? I can def see a few hours of snow, with some back and forth between rain, sleet and cats paws before going to basically a sleet and rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For how long though? I can def see a few hours of snow, with some back and forth between rain, sleet and cats paws before going to basically a sleet and rain storm Well seeing as 4K only goes to 60 hrs I wouldn't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Well seeing as 4K only goes to 60 hrs I wouldn't know Understood, but I am skeptical that it is snow for more than just a couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Gonna have to watch for potential light snows before the main event with the onshore flow late Sunday night and early Monday. Esp over east facing terrain in interior. Almost all guidance is hinting at this. The setup is pretty classic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I think we'd all welcome 3-6 of sleet like the Nam has for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think we'd all welcome 3-6 of sleet like the Nam has for CT Yup.. sure beats rain. Sleet and Wind... would be interesting. Eversource... are you listening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Who is losing power from sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna have to watch for potential light snows before the main event with the onshore flow late Sunday night and early Monday. Esp over east facing terrain in interior. Almost all guidance is hinting at this. The setup is pretty classic too. Yeah I mentioned that earlier, it looks like a CF type enhancement too from near the Maine coast all the way into NE MA or SNH. It makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Who is losing power from sleet? LOL... well, it would inhibit power repairs required by the wind at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 RGEM backed off the lead wave which isn't surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think we'd all welcome 3-6 of sleet like the Nam has for CT We would but its overdone, not happening for majority of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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