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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some changes on the 0z suite so far, And towards a positive which is good, Will see if they continue, 12z GGEM was snow up here as well, Looked better all around for your area.

Lot of taint on the GGEM which is good for you  because of its warm thermal bias

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some changes on the 0z suite so far, And towards a positive which is good, Will see if they continue, 12z GGEM was snow up here as well, Looked better all around for your area.

Yeah hopefully they continue. At least try and keep the ski resorts and snow mobile country mostly snow out of this...I've noticed the colder temp changes come relatively early in the storm and then moderate the further out you go on guidance. I'm wondering if we see it continue as we get closer...maybe the model is "seeing" the depth of the cold air right up front and then eroding it quickly. 

Just a thought. I noticed in all guidance that the downstream ridging ahead of the main shortwave was having more trouble lifting the heights in Quebec and New England. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hopefully they continue. At least try and keep the ski resorts and snow mobile country mostly snow out of this...I've noticed the colder temp changes come relatively early in the storm and then moderate the further out you go on guidance. I'm wondering if we see it continue as we get closer...maybe the model is "seeing" the depth of the cold air right up front and then eroding it quickly. 

Just a thought. I noticed in all guidance that the downstream ridging ahead of the main shortwave was having more trouble lifting the heights in Quebec and New England. 

Way back machine had the same issue 39 years ago this weekend, rain was in the forecast for all

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The blizzard of '78 before the blizzard of '78.

Yes but there was no negatively tilted ULL on that one, but the cold was expected to retreat out of Maine instead it slide down the coast Cad style.  Lee side of Apps cyclogenisis promotes CAD. I am leaning icy mix interior. Like inches of sleet and the CAD dudettes FRZR

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hopefully they continue. At least try and keep the ski resorts and snow mobile country mostly snow out of this...I've noticed the colder temp changes come relatively early in the storm and then moderate the further out you go on guidance. I'm wondering if we see it continue as we get closer...maybe the model is "seeing" the depth of the cold air right up front and then eroding it quickly. 

Just a thought. I noticed in all guidance that the downstream ridging ahead of the main shortwave was having more trouble lifting the heights in Quebec and New England. 

Looks like the colder air washes out and the warm air overtakes the lower levels at the height of the storm after an initial burst, Looks like it erodes it rather quickly which is suspect i think.

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one doesn't have me interested....one of those "million and one ways to not snow" nebulous deals-

Most likely solution for our latitude...probably some mixed junk...esp inland and maybe starting as a burst of snow, but we probably have too much work to do in too little time to get this thing into a big snow. CNE and NNE are a different story. 

Best course of action is definitely "expect little and hope for a last minute surprise". 

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I'm glad I've only had a minor interest in this since the 12z run on Thursday blip.  That said, the storm itself will be impressive as it plods along. 

I'll be surprised if there's more than a minor impact (one or two  inches before sleet/rn) for anyone south of the VT/NH border.  The surprise area for down south will be in far western Franklin and western Hampshire Counties (Beast area and west).

Maybe 12z runs will be more encouraging.  But as Will said, lots of things needed and little time left.  And, as Ray said, there are a millions ways this won't give us snow.

For the area referenced above--here's the mess BOX has (it's my zfp, but I'm too far east and don't have good enough elevation):

Sunday
Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Highs in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Cloudy with a chance of rain...snow and sleet. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Monday
Snow and sleet. Brisk. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Monday Night
Snow...sleet and freezing rain. Near steady temperature around 30. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Tuesday
Rain and freezing rain likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow...sleet and freezing rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
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16 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

Lol not a whole lot of discussion with this one. 

And I think that speaks volumes.

Jeff, PF, Brian are posting away with hope and anticipation; Dave and I are resigned that it's going to be meh; and Kevin pleads to mets in hope that they may tell him he'll ping for a while.

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Guidance is slowly cooling again so that does get some folks at least back in game if we can keep the trend going one more push. We haven't been able to get that last surge of model cooling though during this system on models. Every time we've gotten close the trend reverses. 

At least 12z remains a relevant suite to watch.   The biggest change has been to reduce that warm tongue well above 850. Perhaps models are now starting to grasp the depth of the cold a little more. It isn't unusual to under estimate it when you have that high position. 

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