powderfreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That's why you can't take anything he says seriously...ever. Flip Flop, Flip Flop! Nah it brings life to the threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 I'll stay interested for at least another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Interesting ... the NAM actually performs the capture/loop scneario back west toward WV of all places.. Honestly, how often do we see a close surface low that deep, sit statically right on top of the tallest elevations the spine of the Apps have to offer? It seems of the two, the actual landmass would offer at a minimum AS much inhibition as CAD but that's just me... Nope, NAM just barrels the low right through the cordillera. If I had to guess at an extrapolation... this run intends to do said loop but then the low moves ESE back toward the coast over the next 12 hours; as that ...other wind max rounds the bottom of the and pulls the whole structure back E... Also, there is signs in this run that between 72 and 84 hours the CCB region on the N and NW arc are attempting to dynamically cool back through 0 C at 850. Just some observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Nah it brings life to the threads. Ryan had the right idea yesterday...it was too early to be confident on a widespread winter event for most of SNE at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Thinking this might be a huge ice threat for alot of people.. but still early snow chances seem nil here at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 The ice threat is real, Even with these crappy runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Well after wrestling with grids for a few hours, that's the best I can do. All you NNE weenies, I tried to be as general as possible and don't take the P&C and the like verbatim. Snow and ice were on the conservative side (considering we don't even normally forecast QPF out that far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well after wrestling with grids for a few hours, that's the best I can do. All you NNE weenies, I tried to be as general as possible and don't take the P&C and the like verbatim. Snow and ice were on the conservative side (considering we don't even normally forecast QPF out that far). I won't hold you to those snow totals unless we don't end up with them................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: I won't hold you to those snow totals unless we don't end up with them................ As long as I get credit when they go higher too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: As long as I get credit when they go higher too. The highway runs north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: As long as I get credit when they go higher too. I Hhave to ask...why is the snow total so choppy over Merrimack County? Why would there be a wide strip of lighter snow between Laconia and Concord? Although your tiniest yellow dot is near my house, and I see you've kept Brian in the yellow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: As long as I get credit when they go higher too. I'll be the 1st to complain if we don't at least hit the low end of totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 That's a great writeup Chris. Thanks for being so clear, easy to read and thoughtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: The highway runs north and south. "And he who stand in middle gets hit by trucks going both ways." I think most of us would greatly prefer sleet to ZR. For the skiers it would be just like from the guns, only with bigger pebbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: "And he who stand in middle gets hit by trucks going both ways." I think most of us would greatly prefer sleet to ZR. For the skiers it would be just like from the guns, only with bigger pebbles. Doesn't look like he hit the zr very hard right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 18z GFS has chilled down a bit. Nothing major though...decent scalping to start off the event over interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 We may start to see some tics colder as we go along as the models are late to the party on the depth of the cold typically until closer in, That's still a decent high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 That's an odd evolution on the GFS. You can see how it wants to form the coastal earlier but it can't decide where the best region of pressure falls is. That said, with the occlusion happening much earlier now on guidance over the SE CONUS it would not surprise me at all if we were to see a trend towards an earlier secondary and the coastal SE of the BM. Once the primary occludes the process of building out the ridge out ahead of it ceases, causing an almost due east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: That's an odd evolution on the GFS. You can see how it wants to form the coastal earlier but it can't decide where the best region of pressure falls is. That said, with the occlusion happening earlier, over the SE CONUS on guidance it would not surprise me at all if we an earlier secondary and see the coastal end up SE of the BM. Once the storm occluded the process of building out the ridge out ahead of it ceases, causing an almost due east track. Are you saying a miss to the south is a possibility? Might as well have every option on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 19 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That's an odd evolution on the GFS. You can see how it wants to form the coastal earlier but it can't decide where the best region of pressure falls is. That said, with the occlusion happening much earlier now on guidance over the SE CONUS it would not surprise me at all if we were to see a trend towards an earlier secondary and the coastal SE of the BM. Once the primary occludes the process of building out the ridge out ahead of it ceases, causing an almost due east track. I think the NAM is having issues in that regard too... I mentioned it last hour but again, ...it's spinning up a coastal then driving it west right up the App elevations where it sits and deepens like on top of Mt Spruce in West VA... Lows really don't do that... I bet if there were more cold air this would be a slam dunk DC to Boston coastal plain special and then some but in the absence of the more typical forcing (boundary layer) it sort of 'hooking' around the capture of the U/A trough axis instead... But it's arguably false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Ahh, I think I see what's happening... tsk tsk tsk. See, what's going on is that the 12z rendition of the models all at once reversed the emphasis of the trough region as it's coming in off the Pacific - I didn't see this earlier, but such abrupt changes aloft forces me to look harder.. Anyway, the front side of the total jet dynamic/streak is getting the bulk share of the emphasis and that's causing this thing to cut off and get deeper earlier in the total translation across the deep south. The prior runs put more emphasis on the trailing wind momentum/wave mechanics, such that by the time those caught up with the larger progressive L/W axis the whole bag of tricks brought more lowering heights and cyclogen feedbacks further east ...The whole thing wound up more underneath us. I think based on that ob (which I am reasonably confident in seeing at this point) I think there's equal chances that erroneous and we'll see the prior dynamic return as more and more of that beast gets over land. Modelers would say that's bull**** but let's give that idea time to cook. It may in fact BE that the earlier trough mechanics SHOULD bear the brunt of that and that's fine, but I find it suspicious that the immediately as that noses on shore, suddenly it's a barreling ball full of laughter already hitting the TV region. And comparing runs from yesterday you can clearly see all this happening anyway. It may be right... but let us not forget operational MET 101: continuity changes require an "air" of incredulity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Are you saying a miss to the south is a possibility? Might as well have every option on the table... Well, I don't want to go there yet. But what I'm saying is that when the primary occludes it effectively buries itself in the SE, and loses the mechanism to drive downstream UL heights northward; hence it being "cut-off". The best forcing is then displaced well to the southeast, and since the subsequent wave is a product of a circulation that is cut-off they also progress in a predominately eastward trajectory. To me, it's quite possible this won't come to resemble a nor Easter at all; certainly not in the classic sense. The 18z GEFS highlights this quite well. A cluster of solutions passes SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: That's why you can't take anything he says seriously...ever. Flip Flop, Flip Flop! You're any better attacking him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 42 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Well, I don't want to go there yet. But what I'm saying is that when the primary occludes it effectively buries itself in the SE, and loses the mechanism to drive downstream UL heights northward; hence it being "cut-off". The best forcing is then displaced well to the southeast, and since the subsequent wave is a product of a circulation that is cut-off they also progress in a predominately eastward trajectory. To me, it's quite possible this won't come to resemble a nor Easter at all; certainly not in the classic sense. The 18z GEFS highlights this quite well. A cluster of solutions passes SE of the BM. Fine with me- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You're any better attacking him? Wasn't an attack, just a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Patterns getting to people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 47 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nobody's stalking anybody. Kevin loves to think people are obsessed with him lol..dumbest crap I've ever heard. And you've given it back to me just as much! When you flip flop almost every model run in 24 hours like powderfreak pointed out, gotta expect a lil heat. Nothing against you personally Kevin..just that some of the stuff you come out with is over the top at times. How bout we call a truce... Anyway, I hope your idea from yesterday morning about the 28th has some legs going forward. Oh I know, I was taking about a long lost (banned) poster who was pretty funny with his Kevin attacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I know he was big time trolling, he had it coming. Anyways this Noreaster is looking more and more gnarly by the model cycle, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 28 minutes ago, White Rain said: Man wish I was out in the the mountains of the Sierra this year. Would be awesome to experience the storms they are getting hit with and having A 100" depth . Getting pounded all the way down to Yosemite valley right now. Beats the winter we are having...that's for sure. My nephew just sent pic from his ski trip....5', with 2 more en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 High looks a tad stronger on NAM at hr 60 LP is a tad south at hr 66 noticeable change is most of PA (Cept SE PA) under hvy precip is below 0c 850 compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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