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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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Wonder if NCEP wishes it could take this back -

 

THE LEAD SYSTEM IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS/SUBTROPICS NORTH THEN NORTHWEST INTO MILD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR AN ARRAY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR AN INTERIOR EVENT THANKS TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IMPORTED BY THIS SYSTEM AND A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH KEEPING COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE. AN UPSTREAM KICKER WILL ENSURE THIS ONE WILL NOT LINGER BUT PRECIPITATION RATES COULD BE IMPRESSIVE.

 

 

Ha ha...  

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Egh.. .i dunno ...

maybe the Euro will come in and change moods. 

Not sure why the high pressure from the N edged stronger, yet we pretty dramatically warmed the NW arc of this system influence the way those two models did... hmm. 

I'm going to be  curious what the model diagnostic folks say about the initializations - probably nothing significant. 

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Man, this thing's just really dramatically changed in complexion aloft in the American modeling ...  

I'm with Will on that operational GFS.. .it's taking the 500mb west of New England?  .. ya whisper 'wow', and just walk away.  

This was never going to be a winter enthusiast event not even close if using American modeling. We'll see what the other's say

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Since I can't really interpret the models....there's not much about the GFS.  What did it actually show?   I assume all rain for much of SNE, ice to rain for MPM?  What about up here and north?

GFS started frozen for a good chunk of interior SNE...but it eventually goes to rain....even up to your area. But keep in mind the GFS has the furthest west track by a good amount...so I'd put the chances at more prolonged frozen there pretty high.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man, this thing's just really dramatically changed in complexion aloft in the American modeling ...  

I'm with Will on that operational GFS.. .it's taking the 500mb west of New England?  .. ya whisper 'wow', and just walk away.  

This was never going to be a winter enthusiast event not even close if using American modeling. We'll see what the other's say

lol

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

And had a pretty sharp northside cutoff - 32" in ORH, 8" (Eliot) tops for Maine, 2" for PWM, nary a flake in Gardiner tho lots of wind.

I think he was talking about the track of the GFS...Dec '92 def didn't go over LI and the Cape...it went from about the Delmarva to well SE of benchmark as the low redeveloped and then retrograded back to about 100 mi south of MVY and stalled for a bit before sliding off ESE.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think he was talking about the track of the GFS...Dec '92 def didn't go over LI and the Cape...it went from about the Delmarva to well SE of benchmark as the low redeveloped and then retrograded back to about 100 mi south of MVY and stalled for a bit before sliding off ESE.

Yes, 12z GFS

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