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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ice storms require a great deal of balance. In addition to being destructively beautiful, they are also very delicate systems. You need the WAA and latent heating of freezing to be offset by CAD and latent cooling of evaporation. Or in the case of 2008, just enough wind to carry away all that latent heat.

KPDX was a learning example of what a temp of 32/24 with 20-30kts of wind can do for accretion. Localized wetbulbing big time.

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27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ice storms require a great deal of balance. In addition to being destructively beautiful, they are also very delicate systems. You need the WAA and latent heating of freezing to be offset by CAD and latent cooling of evaporation. Or in the case of 2008, just enough wind to carry away all that latent heat.

Those explanations help me to understand how, with very similar temps and precip to ORH in 2008, we (thankfully) had only 0.2" glaze.

So far, most of the foothills have dodged recent huge ice storms by being a tad colder and getting predominately IP.  Happened in 1998, when my 0.8-acre houselot, about half in house/lawn/garden, suffered more overall breakage than did my 62-acres of forest in New Sharon.  Same thing with the lesser but still significant pre-Christmas event in 2013.  May the streak continue.  As a weenie I appreciate the beauty and drama of big ice; as a forester my loathing cannot be overstated.

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Just nosing into the southern Cali coast ... immediately, storm morphology down stream in the east - ...seen it too often to buy the modeler claims that it doesn't matter any more. 

I'm sure the opposite bears out in their statistics  ...in one way or the other ... but it doesn't bear out in the razor thin tolerances that characterize events down stream. 

This NAM solution is deeper overall  ... probably owing to more dynamical power being assessed coming off the Pacific - it physically warrants the model cores out the 500 mb surface some additional 6 to 10 dm out east by hour 72 to 84, which is a rather significant/abruptly deeper depiction over previous consistency.

Sorry, that's sampling doing that - it has to be.  It's like we keep getting talked into believing one thing, than have to experience something else... deny our eyes...and then believe the talk all over again.  Interesting..

Well, whatever the cause, there are definite system morphologies happening now that the physical relay is actually taking place off the Pacific - whether that is entirely coincidental or not... prooobably doesn't matter as much as the fact that the morphology is taking place.   One thing I will note ... Scott and I were commenting the other day that this was all coming off the Pac in an unusual way..almost W-E trajectory at an unusually low latitude... Not sure if that my lend to increased error too -

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

This trend is going the wrong way, We need the low down south to get further east not west, The block needs to be more stout.

The southern energy is also wrapping up a bit more tight which isn't good...it brings the best forcing inland down to our south...so that isn't helping either.

 

Despite that, this run is actually slightly colder at 84 hours vs the 06z run because the high is a bit better to the north.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The southern energy is also wrapping up a bit more tight which isn't good...it brings the best forcing inland down to our south...so that isn't helping either.

 

Despite that, this run is actually slightly colder at 84 hours vs the 06z run because the high is a bit better to the north.

Southern stream s/w's have been quite dominant all winter so its no real shock that this may stem wind further down south which pulls everything further west and warms us up here.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would trade places in a heartbeat if two years ago I shoveled 30"+ and took swan dives off my roof as a deform band massaged my groin for hours.

yup, and unlike feb 13 they got to see it all in broad daylight! maybe different for you but jan 11 storm didn't produce any incredible rates during the day either 

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