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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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RGEM and gfs both colder. ORH is snow on the GFS at 06z tomorrow night. RGEM even gets some snow down to that latitude now after not having it before. It's kind of cool...snow on east slopes of ORH hills and Berks tomorrow night for a time while west side is a scalping at the same time. 

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  On 1/23/2017 at 3:53 AM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM and gfs both colder. ORH is snow on the GFS at 06z tomorrow night. RGEM even gets some snow down to that latitude now after not having it before. It's kind of cool...snow on east slopes of ORH hills and Berks tomorrow night for a time while west side is a scalping at the same time. 

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How do they look here?

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  On 1/23/2017 at 4:04 AM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM is a scalping for a bit though still a lot of rain...maybe even aggregates for an hour or two but GFS is actually a legit pasting there for several hours late tomorrow evening into early overnight. 

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GFS likes my first call.

Similar gradient to last event.

 

My area is interesting bc I'm on the back edge of the cf enhancement, and close to the cold.

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  On 1/23/2017 at 4:11 AM, Ginx snewx said:

GFS tossed as far as the weenie allows. Such a disaster model, but with negative 850 inflow shadows will be large. GFS has a March 13 mid-level magic look but meh it's imho tossed 

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These easterly inflow events usually suck in the CTRV.

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  On 1/23/2017 at 4:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS likes my first call.

Similar gradient to last event.

 

My area is interesting bc I'm on the back edge of the cf enhancement, and close to the cold.

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And for the GFS being 33.1 degree rain as it shows is a good thing. I still think it's crap. QPF Queens will wonder

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  On 1/23/2017 at 4:12 AM, Ginx snewx said:

And for the GFS being 33.1 degree rain as it shows is a good thing. I still think it's crap. QPF Queens will wonder

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where do you grab the 2m GFS temps for (i know they usually are warm)

IF someone just to the West of CF in NE mass could cool enough for snow with that tremendous forcing this would be ....something. 

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  On 1/23/2017 at 4:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS likes my first call.

Similar gradient to last event.

 

My area is interesting bc I'm on the back edge of the cf enhancement, and close to the cold.

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This is honestly a hideous forecast. The GFS stalls the 850 warm front over SE MA which is as far SE as I've seen it so far...others are a bit NW (except GGEM) but have been trending SE. So I wouldn't be shocked if you were pounding aggregates for several hours being on the NW edge of the sloped front. So much will depend on the lift.

It could also be cat paws and mixed pellets for several hours with no accumulation and then 1-2 inches of rain.  

 

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  On 1/23/2017 at 4:19 AM, ORH_wxman said:

This is honestly a hideous forecast. The GFS stalls the 850 warm front over SE MA which is as far SE as I've seen it so far...others are a bit NW but have been trending SE. So I wouldn't be shocked if you were pounding aggregates for several hours being on the NW edge of the sloped front. So much will depend on the lift.

It could also be cat paws and mixed pellets for several hours with no accumulation and then 1-2 inches of rain.  

 

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What would ratio's be if he ends up Pounding aggregates....ball park...given the GFS set up.

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