CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:21 PM, mahk_webstah said: Jeebus, I thought that was he least of our problems. Lol at this storm. The tics have been colder colder colder each cycle with a storm out of the gulf and now we don't have qpf. This has slowly but surely become another below average winter and I'm not convinced its going to change, no matter what some model says. Dry and chilly on the menu now. Expand LOL, I wouldn't melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:21 PM, mahk_webstah said: Jeebus, I thought that was he least of our problems. Lol at this storm. The tics have been colder colder colder each cycle with a storm out of the gulf and now we don't have qpf. This has slowly but surely become another below average winter and I'm not convinced its going to change, no matter what some model says. Dry and chilly on the menu now. Expand Heh...no need to melt. We'll still get some decent snow and sleet, but right now the models have us between the best areas of forcing. There's still time for some slight changes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:21 PM, mahk_webstah said: Jeebus, I thought that was he least of our problems. Lol at this storm. The tics have been colder colder colder each cycle with a storm out of the gulf and now we don't have qpf. This has slowly but surely become another below average winter and I'm not convinced its going to change, no matter what some model says. Dry and chilly on the menu now. Expand You will get white material of some sort, which is more than other areas. This never looked like a 8-14" snow event over a wide area. I think we see widespread 2-6" type snow/sleet accums in NNE/CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:21 PM, mahk_webstah said: Jeebus, I thought that was he least of our problems. Lol at this storm. The tics have been colder colder colder each cycle with a storm out of the gulf and now we don't have qpf. This has slowly but surely become another below average winter and I'm not convinced its going to change, no matter what some model says. Dry and chilly on the menu now. Expand Rather have that with 3-6 of snow and ice than an inch of boring rain wire to wire like SNE . But that's me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:34 PM, powderfreak said: You will get white material of some sort, which is more than other areas. This never looked like a 8-14" snow event over a wide area. I think we see widespread 2-6" type snow/sleet accums in NNE/CNE. Expand I believe the melt is on the season as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I find it interesting that the Albany NWSFO never seems confident about how much shadowing will occur in the HV. I'm expecting a pretty good shadow and some nice enhancement west of the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 12:14 PM, mahk_webstah said: If everything ticked colder overnight then why didn't mine and Jeff and Brian's snowfall forecast worsen significantly from 3 to 7 inches to 1 to 3 inches? Is it simply forecaster interpretation or did the models actually change to be less snow? Expand On 1/22/2017 at 12:29 PM, CoastalWx said: Still a mighty warm tongue, so probably lots of sleet there. The soundings still look a little weird to me. Either subsidence in the DGZ like the GFS has, or more shallow lift below the DGZ. The dacks west of Lake Champlain could get a dumping closer to the deformation area. Expand Quick look: Euro is still chilly (Dendrite stays below freezing aloft for the duration just about). GFS and NAM are much warmer and sleety, but the GFS still mix out that shallow warmer layer and have a snow profile around 09z. I am a touch confused at how we arrived at our forecast amounts last night. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 And there's my answer. The AFD says a Euro/NAM blend. And the NAM is the warmest of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:50 PM, OceanStWx said: And there's my answer. The AFD says a Euro/NAM blend. And the NAM is the warmest of the bunch. Expand Time to take the eraser back out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 12:49 PM, CoastalWx said: The other thing is the forcing really is closer to the coast. I don't see a huge deformation or CCB other than a massive arc of low to mid level lift heading north. So that can cause downwind issues from the deep forcing closer to the coast. Then again the flow banks up against the high terrain up in NH and ME which helps. Expand Yeah, I mean we're out of the game for deformation band type forcing. I see mainly LLJ forced precip lifting N in a band as you say. Now that kind of southerly and easterly flow plus deep subtropical connection should mean plenty of moisture. But given the CAD, you can get some weird subsidence zones just beyond the coastal front. I do think slamming this LLJ into the cold dome of the high should wring out a decent QPF event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:54 PM, OceanStWx said: Yeah, I mean we're out of the game for deformation band type forcing. I see mainly LLJ forced precip lifting N in a band as you say. Now that kind of southerly and easterly flow plus deep subtropical connection should mean plenty of moisture. But given the CAD, you can get some weird subsidence zones just beyond the coastal front. I do think slamming this LLJ into the cold dome of the high should wring out a decent QPF event though. Expand Yeah they'll be a lot of moisture for sure. But as you say...maybe some weird subby zones. I wish I could see more deeper euro guidance other than what I'm limited to, but sounds pretty cold in the lakes region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:59 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah they'll be a lot of moisture for sure. But as you say...maybe some weird subby zones. I wish I could see more deeper euro guidance other than what I'm limited to, but sounds pretty cold in the lakes region. Expand Seriously. In Brian's hood, a time height view has him at a maximum temp of -0.2C at 12 Tue (all subfreezing before that too), and that's at the surface. Aloft the warmest temp I can find is like -1.2C around 700 mb. So could it be a degree warmer than that? Sure, but it's still a solid sleet sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 1:26 PM, dendrite said: Heh...no need to melt. We'll still get some decent snow and sleet, but right now the models have us between the best areas of forcing. There's still time for some slight changes though. Expand Any melt I have in here isn't matched by the melt ouside my door the last few days. Early mud season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 34F. w/ drizzle here at the moment, good practice for Tuesday. Gets me in the mood for cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 nam is colder up to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:13 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: 34F. w/ drizzle here at the moment, good practice for Tuesday. Gets me in the mood for cold rain. Expand On 1/22/2017 at 2:13 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: 34F. w/ drizzle here at the moment, good practice for Tuesday. Gets me in the mood for cold rain. Expand Any snow left in Greenfield proper or just at your digs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:02 PM, OceanStWx said: Seriously. In Brian's hood, a time height view has him at a maximum temp of -0.2C at 12 Tue (all subfreezing before that too), and that's at the surface. Aloft the warmest temp I can find is like -1.2C around 700 mb. So could it be a degree warmer than that? Sure, but it's still a solid sleet sounding. Expand Will be a good test for the euro too. The nam has done well with tricky warm layers, but this is a setup with a stout high and the low goes well SE of central NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:02 PM, OceanStWx said: Seriously. In Brian's hood, a time height view has him at a maximum temp of -0.2C at 12 Tue (all subfreezing before that too), and that's at the surface. Aloft the warmest temp I can find is like -1.2C around 700 mb. So could it be a degree warmer than that? Sure, but it's still a solid sleet sounding. Expand Where do you find those on WxBell...been looking all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:13 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: 34F. w/ drizzle here at the moment, good practice for Tuesday. Gets me in the mood for cold rain. Expand sure youll eventually rain but the sleet mix fest is real. how does your area do with CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 NAM takes all hair off Brian's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Nam definitely is a tick colder both at the sfc and that mid level warm layer. Still a sleetfest in NNE but a bit cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Yea, thats heavy pingers on nam for WMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:21 PM, powderfreak said: Where do you find those on WxBell...been looking all over. Expand Ahh found it. X-Z:T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:21 PM, powderfreak said: Where do you find those on WxBell...been looking all over. Expand I also used AWIPS, but they are on WeatherBell too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Def colder...esp below 800mb down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Man that EURO profile up here at MVL is cold though. 900mb temps of under -5C...that's low 20s. Scalping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Interesting how the warm tongue almost washes out at 48h above 800mb. Big difference on the sounding from 45 to 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:29 PM, ORH_wxman said: Interesting how the warm tongue almost washes out at 48h above 800mb. Big difference on the sounding from 45 to 48h. Expand You would think that from ORH north, it will snow if the precip rates are are strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:28 PM, powderfreak said: Man that EURO profile up here at MVL is cold though. 900mb temps of under -5C...that's low 20s. Scalping. Expand Its interesting its colder in the 850-750 layer down this way. That cross section for KASH is essentially sub-freezing through 10-12z. Maybe deeper layer CAD/lift offsets it for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 2:25 PM, PennQuakerGirl said: So I know that there has been a lot of discussion about the below-average snowfalls down in the Mid-Atlantic. Has that been the case for New England as well thus far this winter? Expand Wrong topic thread. Try posting in banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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