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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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  On 1/20/2017 at 12:56 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I was spot on for the last event.  I meh'd it to death

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Lmao..that's some funny sh*t!! 

 

You're in a good spot for this as it stands now...if it ticks colder going forward-then you're gonna rock for sure!! 

This is gonna be night and day compared to that junk box the other night..I think we all can take that to the bank-even at this point(unless ofcourse it whiffs ots). Which is a big time outlier at the moment.

 

Right now I think West is better as well(at least in SNE).  But it could all be a dream by 0z, when the block moves out faster, and it cuts.   Gotta be prepared for that as well(at least I am). 

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 With only extremely amateur meteorological skills, but 10 years of living in  Greenfield, I can tell this looks to be a  significant event here as currently modeled. 

 Sure, models could take a big shift  in the next  24 hours but the trend looks to be a pretty big winter event for the interior. 

 This little corner of NW MA  has had consistent snow cover since the beginning of December and experience tells me that might continue.

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  On 1/20/2017 at 1:46 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

the chance of this "cutting" or "whiffing" is close to zero. the bigger concern is an early occluded mess where the interior deform band looks great for a bit then it lifts north and unravels. 

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Yup, great post.  Closes earlier, messy qpf distribution but still a much more solid event than Tuesday  seems to be evolving on the models.

 We are due in WNE,  you more than I but I'm sure you would be happy with thump to slop. 

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Given the poor air mass, everything has to come together just right for a significant snowfall in the lower elevations to the south of the Pike,  and especially the coastal regions where It seems like a rather low probability.  I would feel cautiously optimistic in Northern ORH and especially the Berks.  Keeping expectations reasonable at this lead, perhaps a bit of a front end burst and a bit of a changeover at the end with an inch or two here in the valley but I'm certainly not ruling out a bigger impact just recognizing it is a low probability. 

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  On 1/20/2017 at 1:19 AM, CT Rain said:

Yeah that is way too mild. 

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Yeah, I mean once you get deeper than 1000 m that's a lot to ask for. Especially if it's saturated too. 

Skinny little couple hundred m thick, sure that can wash out with strong lift.

Another factor is maturity of the low. If it was still deepening rather than mature and occluding you could have a better chance of heights/temps falling.

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  On 1/20/2017 at 2:29 AM, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, I mean once you get deeper than 1000 m that's a lot to ask for. Especially if it's saturated too. 

Skinny little couple hundred m thick, sure that can wash out with strong lift.

Another factor is maturity of the low. If it was still deepening rather than mature and occluding you could have a better chance of heights/temps falling.

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Guess Dendrite is screwed too then. 

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  On 1/20/2017 at 2:42 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Did you see the 1920 map 

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I did, thanks.

  On 1/20/2017 at 2:45 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Guess Dendrite is screwed too then. 

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And that's assuming that x-sect is correct. We could still forecast warmer or colder trends, but verbatim that plot was a tough ask.

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  On 1/20/2017 at 2:20 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yup, great post.  Closes earlier, messy qpf distribution but still a much more solid event than Tuesday  seems to be evolving on the models.

 We are due in WNE,  you more than I but I'm sure you would be happy with thump to slop. 

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Majority of zones west of 91 in the region are due but I know my climo, Im about 25 miles south of the 70"+ snowfall avg and 25 miles north of the 30" avg. Which basically puts me on the fringe of almost every single snowstorm lol. Always living on the edge here, Ive gone numb to it. But Systems like these have been lacking since 2011, even though I wont cash in this time I enjoy them. Hopefully, though, this doesnt "open up" too soon. 

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