dryslot Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:15 PM, powderfreak said: Yeah its exciting now but hard to say where we'll be with say 36 hours left, and even that is prone to some big changes at that time frame, ha. A lot of model runs to go. Just keep bringing a storm system somewhere close to us and let the temperatures work themselves out. Expand One thing we can lock in right now is it won't be moisture starved............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 10:58 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Based on what? What besides 18z GFS Expand What model is giving you a lot of snow? No solution is good right now for anyone south of NH VT and Maine and Western Ma. N ORH gets some snow then a lot of mixing on most models, so that area stands the best chance to be in he mix for something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I'm thinking this will wind up being a warmer, wetter, windier version of Tuesday's event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I'm rooting for the NAM and EURO ENS solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I'm just going to plan on medium impact kitchen sink event here. Buy medium impact I mean a few hours clearing cement like product and certainly a period of terrible driving conditions with a day of school closures. Certainly room at this point to swing towards low or high impact . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:46 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm thinking this will wind up being a warmer, wetter, windier version of Tuesday's event Expand No way...regardless of precip. type, we won't have that banded garbage...I'll bet it isn't much, if any warmer, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 10:47 PM, Ginx snewx said: well i will tell you if I was MPM and the VT crew and Mainers interior I would be so stoked but I guess they are no one Expand I'm cautiously, almost, sort of, quasi, maybe, semi stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:52 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm rooting for the NAM and EURO ENS solutions. Expand I'm rooting for your keyboard to stall, and do a blizzard loop over the Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:10 PM, ORH_wxman said: I think it's normal to say the situation is crap if you are in the southern coastal plain regions...the chances there are significantly lower. If you are in interior SNE, esp elevated....then there is absolutely reason to think this could be pretty wintry. Even more so further north obviously. Expand Absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:46 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm thinking this will wind up being a warmer, wetter, windier version of Tuesday's event Expand You are going to get more snow from this one than Tuesday, that I'm pretty confident about, regardless of what P type might follow the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 BOS whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:52 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm rooting for the NAM and EURO ENS solutions. Expand which ens solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way...regardless of precip. type, we won't have that banded garbage...I'll bet it isn't much, if any warmer, either. Expand Don't think anyone will be saying the radar looks like shiit with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:05 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: You are going to get more snow from this one than Tuesday, that I'm pretty confident about, regardless of what P type might follow the snow. Expand I agree, North and West are favored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:05 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: which ens solutions? Expand The mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:06 AM, dryslot said: Don't think anyone will be saying the radar looks like shiit with this one Expand No....sure, it maybe wet, but I'm confident that it would be a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:07 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The mean Expand thought you liked snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:05 AM, ajisai said: BOS whiff? Expand Maybe More like wet. But we shall see. It's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:07 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The mean Expand A colder rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No way...regardless of precip. type, we won't have that banded garbage...I'll bet it isn't much, if any warmer, either. Expand He's in probably the best spot in SNE for this, of course. Debbie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 This is a colder stronger version of that POS. That had .50 . This has 2-3" qpf with big wind and cold air coming into storm as it gets going. That was retreating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 You can see on the Euro cross section how ORH can easily mix out that mid-level warmth with rates strong UVVs and how very cold the LL is in Laconia. Easily could be colder as modeling evolves. Not convinced at all this isn't a blue bomb. I wouldn't call this airmass total garbage in those spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 You don't mix out a warm layer that thick. That's way to thick and warm. I would recommend an overall cooler look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/19/2017 at 11:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm rooting for your keyboard to stall, and do a blizzard loop over the Benchmark. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:25 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: He's in probably the best spot in SNE for this, of course. Debbie Expand I was spot on for the last event. I meh'd it to death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:53 AM, CoastalWx said: You don't mix out a warm layer that thick. That's way to thick and warm. I would recommend an overall cooler look. Expand Look at the timing of the best lift Scott .6 C with strong UVVs at 0z Tues. Pretty sure that goes ISO.Thumpidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:56 AM, Ginx snewx said: Look at the timing of the best lift Scott .6 C with strong UVVs at 0z Tues. Pretty sure that goes ISO.Thumpidity Expand That's a 100mb layer of 2-3C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Not sure this favors west as much as it does North in NNE. In SNE it certainly applies...Already the axis of heaviest snow is towards Northern NH and Northwest Maine. There has been a significant shift south and east with this over time. Also we will want to watch for deformation snows as this winds up. There is destructive interference with the following wave which disrupts our storm on the GFS but I'm in the Euro/GGEM camp where our storm intensifies at the expense of the subsequent wave and a defined CCB develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 1:01 AM, CoastalWx said: That's a 100mb layer of 2-3C. Expand At 0z? Not seeing that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 On 1/20/2017 at 12:56 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: I was spot on for the last event. I meh'd it to death Expand Well, Rightfully so, That whole system sucked and the radar returns were fractured with more of a showery look, This is going to be a wall of moisture and there won't b a sharp cutoff to the precip field either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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