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Gnarly Nor'easter 1/24 to 1/25/17 our favorite week


Ginx snewx

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Ens and Ops are indicating a strong Nor'easter with multiple types of precip for the entire New England and adjacent New York region, could be a contendah. Initial indications are for a blue bomb in elevated SNE .dryer in NNE, with the potential for a significant accumulation of winter precip. Ensemble mean qpf is mostly in the 1.5 to 2 inch range with locally less and higher amounts. Determination of precip types is dependant on depth and heighth of the Scooter high building in Eastern Canada and the associated ageostrophic colder low dewpoint air.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why would that be favored with that bitter high funneling in cold? That's actually the most unfavorable idea

Can't wait for weenie tags to come back.

The GFS solution is totally reasonable. It's a garbage airmass so we're really going to have to thread the needle. Sure it's possible we get snow in the higher elevations but I don't think big snow is likely right now. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Can't wait for weenie tags to come back.

The GFS solution is totally reasonable. It's a garbage airmass so we're really going to have to thread the needle. Sure it's possible we get snow in the higher elevations but I don't think big snow is likely right now. 

Gonna tag yourself?

You're funneling down cold dry air.. It's not like there's no cold source. I'd certainly take GEFS and EPS over an off hour GFS op run that has thermal issues lol

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Just now, CT Rain said:

Can't wait for weenie tags to come back.

The GFS solution is totally reasonable. It's a garbage airmass so we're really going to have to thread the needle. Sure it's possible we get snow in the higher elevations but I don't think big snow is likely right now. 

That is not what the dude said Ryan, he said it would be favored. no reason for this post to Kev he just asked a questions as did I . Sure its a reasonable solution but certainly no solution is favored over the other.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna tag yourself?

You're funneling down cold dry air.. It's not like there's no cold source. I'd certainly take GEFS and EPS over an off hour GFS op run that has thermal issues lol

And GEFS and EPS have plenty of spread. I'll take the EPS that has a 75% chance that you don't see 3" of snow. Seems reasonable to me. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

That is not what the dude said Ryan, he said it would be favored. no reason for this post to Kev he just asked a questions as did I . Sure its a reasonable solution but certainly no solution is favored over the other.

That's why I quoted Kevin talking about bitter cold funneling south. Kevin seems to have latched onto one solution though....

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna tag yourself?

You're funneling down cold dry air.. It's not like there's no cold source. I'd certainly take GEFS and EPS over an off hour GFS op run that has thermal issues lol

In severe season he definitely needs one, 60 hr NAM has tor risk of 2%!!!!

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Just now, CT Rain said:

And GEFS and EPS have plenty of spread. I'll take the EPS that has a 75% chance that you don't see 3" of snow. Seems reasonable to me. 

Yea but who is talking about me, certainly the EPS/GEFS solution in ORH county and the Berks is much more reasonable than the 18Z GFS, but you go with that.

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I'd be interested in the analogs for this, particularly if there are any for late Jan/early Feb.

No way the 18z gfs puts most of NNE into plain rain with that track and intensity. Surface winds are cranking out of the N/NNE/NNW throughout the duration of the storm.

The GFS surface temps look like this is happening in early April...

The antecedent airmass may suck but we have our own cold up here this time of the year...

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