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Big Noreaster Rain/wind/wet snow thread 1/22-1/23


Ji

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5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Canaan Valley starting mixing at 36 degrees....just sayin.

Temps in and around the District were forecast to rise through at least noon and that is not happening.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.821&lon=-77.0862&lg=english&&FcstType=digital

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDCA/2017/01/23/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Arlington&req_state=VA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM and HRRR look decent for a lot of the area. Gonna need to see if/how much this thing bombs out I think.

Is there a different HRRR than this one because it looks like the GFS and not the NAM.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017012314&fh=18

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A couple things that I've been thinking about this morning: 

1. If it snows anywhere other than the mountains of MD/VA then this is a huge success. Models had this thing cutting the apps with hardly any snow and a torch for everyone just 2-3 days ago. The transfer hasn't even full taken place and we're sitting in the upper 30's to lower 40's around the metro's. 

2. The GFS has been expanding it's snow shield. Had nothing at 6z for anyone east of Cumberland and now it gets Catoctin into the action. Difference between the NAM and GFS is that the NAM stalls it out a little bit and there is heavy wrap around moisture. The GFS is not nearly as strong with this feature. We shall wait and see! 

3. Why aren't there advisories for south central Pa or Garret county? Basically all the guidance has a solid 2-4 at the minimum. 

 

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Just now, mitchnick said:

Is there a different HRRR than this one because it looks like the GFS and not the NAM.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017012314&fh=18

Yeah. I guess I should have stipulated for western parts of the area. Well the RGEM still looks decent anyways. 

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

My God man, you've got every model known to man opened on your computer!  lol

I'm trying to update some software to be able to crop with photo gallery again. :axe:  It's weird I need SQL server to do it. I downloaded the wrong version. Stupid Microsoft won't provide downloads anymore after "support was terminated". If you want windows photo gallery (very useful) find an offline install version. https://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/windowslive/forum/gallery-wlinstall/error-0x8104000d-preventing-me-from-installing/5ca8ed3b-ad94-4d10-bacd-546335c9b97b

fyi, those are only about 17/100 92 ffx tabs to be exact. lol

 

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