SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4k NAM gives a foot to the Oakland/Canaan/Davis area. They are forecast for under an inch right now. Gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12z RGEM has maybe a coating N&W. The NAM lol. Maybe its on to something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9AM, the surface low is well depicted in the winds in north central NC almost like a cane that's come on shore http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_at.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Read my Handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have been quietly watching it trend the right direction all week. Sometimes in a one step forward 1/2 step back kind of way but the general trend for a long time has been a slow improvement overall run after run. Perhaps because it started off as such a bad look and because the trend better was so incremental it went unnoticed. That said I still think its likely mostly rain, and in the cities would still be shocked in there was any accumulation, but it looks like places NW with some elevation could possibly back door their way to a measurable event. Crap the 3k Nam gives me a foot of snow, not buying that at all but one can dream I guess. Much better look. Until recently the models were showing snow with the initial slug of moisture as the storm moved up the coast. Pretty much fool's gold because we were never going to see it. But now we see with the stall and it's drawing of the low back to the coast it has time to wrap around the moisture. In this setup we can see snow. I am now cautiously optimistic that we do see snow , maybe even into the cities, though I would take the snowfall maps with a grain of salt. In my mind cut those totals in a third or even 1/2 and that is probably a more realistic outcome. edit: this is all contingent on the NAM being right on the evolution of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I thought maybe it was Tropical Tidbits map, but even Pivotal Weather maps show the NAM snow into Central MD http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2017012312&fh=36&r=conus&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 4k NAM gives a foot to the Oakland/Canaan/Davis area. They are forecast for under an inch right now. Gonna be interesting. Putting the NAM aside, other guidance suggests a few inches out that way. RGEM looks like 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Putting the NAM aside, other guidance suggests a few inches out that way. RGEM looks like 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The RGEM has steadily increased the snowfall coverage over the last 4 runs. Which is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Thunder, wind driven rains. Loud thunder at that. Nice to hear. May be my best thunder in 2 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: Thunder, wind driven rains. Loud thunder at that. Nice to hear. May be my best thunder in 2 years! Impressive to see/hear at these temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Right or wrong on the NAM, I have to admit that the High pressure north of NE has really been pressing down. It is pretty cold in Maine now while last night it was much warmer. And even the sounding out of Cape Cod this morning is cold as he!! considering where they were last night at 7PM. Darn shame we're running outta time again with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Really hope this thing slows/stalls for a time right over DC Metro and we get soaked...would love this to be a colossal model bust on the side of a memorable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Now there's your classic "transfer to off the coast" pressure map. Can't forget the 3-hour pressure drop map to go along with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 This will just remind us how silly the NAM is. Pretty strong gusts right near the bay though. Id say Ive had quite a few near or over 40MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Really hope this thing slows/stalls for a time right over DC Metro and we get soaked...would love this to be a colossal model bust on the side of a memorable event. It would be the opposite of march 2013. That tuck and stall destroyed hopes and dreams. Hopefully the NAM is right this time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Right or wrong on the NAM, I have to admit that the High pressure north of NE has really been pressing down. It is pretty cold in Maine now while last night it was much warmer. And even the sounding out of Cape Cod this morning is cold as he!! considering where they were last night at 7PM. Darn shame we're running outta time again with this one. perhaps this is the start of a "new normal" this year where everything doesn't go to crap for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: perhaps this is the start of a "new normal" this year where everything doesn't go to crap for us don't we all wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It would be the opposite of march 2013. That tuck and stall destroyed hopes and dreams. Hopefully the NAM is right this time. lol Maybe we'll get lucky with a 3" - 5" paste bomb that stick to the power lines like glue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 NAM, right or wrong with our area, puts the kibosh on NE too. Very 1/25/00'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: NAM, right or wrong with our area, puts the kibosh on NE too. Very 1/25/00'ish. Only 2 days away from the anniversary! Interesting to note is that Westminster is now down to 37 degrees and Thurmont (Camp David) is at 36. Also there's a decent bit of lightning across Virginia. Not something you see every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GFS says NAM on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GFS snowfall at 27 hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017012312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=027 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: GFS snowfall at 27 hrs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017012312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=027 The NAM is cute to look at for giggles since we're all desperate, but anyone taking it seriously is foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: GFS says NAM on crack. Toss. Go with coldest and snowiest model at all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The NAM is cute to look at for giggles since we're all desperate, but anyone taking it seriously is foolish. Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Bust We might add this to his hall of fame list. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 12z GFS, looks like a couple inches for Catoctin Mountain per WB snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Lightening in Ashburn per Bug. Rare for sure. Winds picking up. Sitting at 42 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Steady drop off from earlier this morning now 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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