showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well the Delmarva is east of us. That's the problem there really is no wrap around precip here when we have the opportunity under the h5 low. Even then it would be a long shot but the system is pretty disorganized at that point. It tightens up later and places like northern NJ with some elevation could get crushed. Our best hope is to root for something to pop under the h5 low. Anytime a closed h5 low tracks over you in mid winter it's worth keeping one eye on. Will be a lot of dynamics in play so a surprise here or there can never be ruled out. But I am pretty much in Bob's camp, except for maybe a few flakes in the air up our way I think the big thing will be the wind for most from the bay eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Wish this was occurring over the weekend. Would take a trip up to Mohegan Sun casino just outside of Wilkes-Barre. IMO this storm is beginning to have all the earmarks of a Pocono's paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Looks as if the GFS is now beginning to cave to the CMC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 12Z CMC is very close to snow storm out here. I think it is likely that we see some snow at least on the tail end. Not that it will amount to anything. And I have to say the CMC was quite impressive with this event. It had the big coastal idea nailed from a long ways out. I guess every model wins every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just to understand how much we have to overcome to see snow I took a snapshot of the most promising model's latest run. This is at hour 24, shortly after the onset of precip so these temps probably reflect most/all of the cooling we will see from evaporational cooling. I will let the maps mostly speak for themselves except for a quick summation. We have 700's still above freezing, 850's that are roughly 5 degrees above and a surface that is running at best in the mid 40's. Now asking for mixing to scour out a warm layer between the 850's and the surface is one thing and is fairly easily done. But what we are asking for is mixing to scour out the warmth the whole way from the surface to 700mb. And we are not talking very marginal air, we are talking torch. Is it possible, yes with a very dynamical storm. Is it likely, IMO no. Just Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like a crap rain event in the metro, though. We probably have a much better chance at thunderstorm then snow with this system. If the winds verify and we get some good rain I'll be happy. I've pretty much given up open for snow any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: We probably have a much better chance at thunderstorm then snow with this system. If the winds verify and we get some good rain I'll be happy. I've pretty much given up open for snow any time soon. Oddly, in the last 3 12z euro op runs the center of circulation for tomorrow morning at 12z has moved from WV to SW VA and now to east GA! Interesting developments to say the least for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The Euro abandon the stronger primary weaker coastal idea. Now shows a more of a Miller A, constant at 986mb as it moves up the coast. However the silly NAM/HRRR low along the gulf coast that we thought was a feedback error ended up verifying, just slightly weaker. Take it back, latest surface pressure down to 980MB. Looks like the pressure will verify as mesoscale models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 If we had this low, and this low position with mid December air mass in place, this thread would be 100 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Just to understand how much we have to overcome to see snow I took a snapshot of the most promising model's latest run. This is at hour 24, shortly after the onset of precip so these temps probably reflect most/all of the cooling we will see from evaporational cooling. I will let the maps mostly speak for themselves except for a quick summation. We have 700's still above freezing, 850's that are roughly 5 degrees above and a surface that is running at best in the mid 40's. Now asking for mixing to scour out a warm layer between the 850's and the surface is one thing and is fairly easily done. But what we are asking for is mixing to scour out the warmth the whole way from the surface to 700mb. And we are not talking very marginal air, we are talking torch. Is it possible, yes with a very dynamical storm. Is it likely, IMO no. Just Your not wrong in the point it's not going to snow but the closest we get is between hour 30 and 36 as the heaviest bands are coming through then again around hour 42 if there are any wrap around bands with the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Your not wrong in the point it's not going to snow but the closest we get is between hour 30 and 36 as the heaviest bands are coming through then again around hour 42 if there are any wrap around bands with the upper low. Yeah, couldn't figure out why he posted the 24 hour maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 everything trends in our favor when we have rain storms - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Your not wrong in the point it's not going to snow but the closest we get is between hour 30 and 36 as the heaviest bands are coming through then again around hour 42 if there are any wrap around bands with the upper low. Wasn't trying to show the best look but instead what we initially have to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, couldn't figure out why he posted the 24 hour maps. Guess I have to work on my communication skills. Or maybe your reading comprehension? Nah, who am I kidding. My communication skills suck and I should know because my wife always tells me so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just for fun. I've been keeping my eye on this just to see how much cold this storm can produce. It's been been fun to see it go from a miller b to more of a miller a look. Doubt much will come of it even in the mountains but I've enjoyed following it nonetheless. 12km nam - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The 18Z NAM 4k is interesting to say the least. Per weatherbell it gets some snow all the way into the cities and has the NW suburbs with 3-6 inch totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The 18Z NAM 4k is interesting to say the least. Per weatherbell it gets some snow all the way into the cities and has the NW suburbs with 3-6 inch totals. I think pivotal weather might be a little more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, cae said: I think pivotal weather might be a little more realistic. Just banter, but the 3k nam jackpots Canaan Valley too with about a foot and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Def something screwed up with Weatherbell's algorithm... thru 24 on the 18z 4k NAM, the PTYPE panels hasn't shown a single flake in the Catoctin Mts, but at 24, the snow map shows 6" of snow on the ground in Sabillasville, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 GFS is much warmer at all levels than the NAM. So who knows at this point. If you watch the 850 temps on the NAM there is a circle of below zero 850's right as the transfer starts to take place centered over our area. That seems a little weird to me as you would expect the 850's to drop once the coastal gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 30 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Sabillasville could be a good place to be for this event and Catoctins in general. Actually nam looks even better with 850's then previous runs.. has them crashing tomorrow between 10am to 12pm in the nw burbs .Nowcasting tomorrow should be fun for borderline areas. If we can get some moderate bands to come through at the right time hopefully some can score a period of wind driven paste. These strong storms always have surprises ..always. You may well be right - I was just commenting on the snowfall map not aligning with the ptype panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This might not even have been a good snowstorm if it was cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Sabillasville could be a good place to be for this event and Catoctins in general. Actually nam looks even better with 850's then previous runs.. has them crashing tomorrow between 10am to 12pm in the nw burbs .Nowcasting tomorrow should be fun for borderline areas. If we can get some moderate bands to come through at the right time hopefully some can score a period of wind driven paste. These strong storms always have surprises ..always. I would bet even money that at some point I see flakes mixed in. But I doubt it amounts to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Max potential update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Are winds still looking semi interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Are winds still looking semi interesting? Wind advisory is up tomorrow for gusts in the mid 40's. All guidance supports it. It's all we got so bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 HRRR has gusts in the 50s to near 60 mph in the metro late tomorrow morning. Woo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 11 hours ago, cae said: It's not going to snow 00z NAM is trying really hard to prove me wrong. Towson jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 46 minutes ago, nj2va said: HRRR has gusts in the 50s to near 60 mph in the metro late tomorrow morning. Woo! Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 00z RGEM has 2-3 inches of rain around tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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