showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Be even cooler if that low position ends up about 100 miles se of where the NAM has it It might possibly help you if you have some good elevation but for the rest of us we would still be SOL. But I get it, it's all about 'My Back Yard'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Be even cooler if that low position ends up about 100 miles se of where the NAM has it Is that far enough SE for you? Still doesn't help much tho: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 NAM still throwing out significant changes so who knows where we are in 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 What on Earth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Interesting set of model runs overnight. CMC has gone back to the idea of jumping the low over the mountains into the southeast before bringing the low up the coast. And the Euro, as well as the ESP have jumped ship and joined the CMC. They now get the low over the mountains as well and they are even farther south then the CMC. The Euro is probably as close as you are going to get for the ideal track on the approach of the low toward our region for any chance of snow in our region. And yet the CMC confines any snow to the mountains and the Euro op + ensembles, with its almost ideal track, for the most part keep any snow above the MD/PA line and in the mountains. GFS and its ensembles are sticking with the idea of the primary tracking into west Va before it transfers over to the coast and needless to say that's a losing proposition which can be seen with very little snow to be found except for the higher elevations in the mountains and upstate Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Can this surprise us by trending a little bit more SE of the mid atlantic? Hopefully the overnight changes will continue today. Already has a negative tilt, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Preparing for my half inch of rain then dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Can this surprise us by trending a little bit more SE of the mid atlantic? Hopefully the overnight changes will continue today. Already has a negative tilt, right? Yeah, that's negative and yeah we need to see that track a little farther to the south and east. After looking over the temps about the only chance most in our general region would have is to see the low get captured, stall and bomb off of the MD/DE coast. Otherwise we are looking at trying to overcome temps that are 4-5 degrees, if not more, too warm from the surface all the way up to 850mb. Which, short of the models being off quite a bit with temps, I don't see happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 We can't even manage 34 and rain this winter...pretty sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 55 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, that's negative and yeah we need to see that track a little farther to the south and east. After looking over the temps about the only chance most in our general region would have is to see the low get captured, stall and bomb off of the MD/DE coast. Otherwise we are looking at trying to overcome temps that are 4-5 degrees, if not more, too warm from the surface all the way up to 850mb. Which, short of the models being off quite a bit with temps, I don't see happening. after looking at the 06z GFS, i noticed it slowing right around your area and in 3 panels saw little movement. Boy if we had a block to slow that puppy up, we might all be giddy right now. 12z's will be interesting to see if theres any more wiggle left in this one. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We can't even manage 34 and rain this winter...pretty sad. LOL, ain't that the truth. However, when leaving the gym this morning, I caught a glimpse of the weather on one of the local channels (don't know which one since I hardly ever watch the local news) and for Tuesday it showed rain/snow. Didn't hear the actual forecast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, that's negative and yeah we need to see that track a little farther to the south and east. After looking over the temps about the only chance most in our general region would have is to see the low get captured, stall and bomb off of the MD/DE coast. Otherwise we are looking at trying to overcome temps that are 4-5 degrees, if not more, too warm from the surface all the way up to 850mb. Which, short of the models being off quite a bit with temps, I don't see happening. With a negative tilt, does that allow colder air aloft get mixed in with the system more so than with a progressive system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Euro is the most bullish with wind. Widespread gusts in the 40's and low 50's between 12-18z. Gfs mostly 30's to mid 40's. Strong E/NE wind gusts usually don't make it too far west of the bay but could mix down in heavier precip. 850's are ripping pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: after looking at the 06z GFS, i noticed it slowing right around your area and in 3 panels saw little movement. Boy if we had a block to slow that puppy up, we might all be giddy right now. 12z's will be interesting to see if theres any more wiggle left in this one. Nut Think I would prefer to see the temps at the onset 5 degrees colder through all levels. Better yet a nice banana shaped arctic high just to our north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 44 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We can't even manage 34 and rain this winter...pretty sad. Had that last weekend. 50s and rain is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Think I would prefer to see the temps at the onset 5 degrees colder through all levels. Better yet a nice banana shaped arctic high just to our north and west. Yeah...agreed for sure. Just looking at how we win with this one (as modeled). Many would be looking for snowshoes if antecedent airmass was 5 deg colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: With a negative tilt, does that allow colder air aloft get mixed in with the system more so than with a progressive system? I guess in an off hand sort of way yeah. It gives the low a better chance of intensifying which in turn allows better mixing. The problem we have (Per the Euro) is that you have to look all the way up to 700mb to get temps below freezing for the region as the low is moving off the coast of Va, and that by only a few degrees. So when you see temps from 850mb all the way to the surface at least 4-5 degrees over freezing that is a lot to overcome. Can it be overcome? Sure, but we need that low to go to town just off the coast. Of course we can also hope that the models are a little warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 One small positive I did catch earlier this morning is in regards to surface temps before the onset of precip. Though the 850's match up well, the NAM is actually a degree or 2 colder then the Euro at the surface. Considering that the NAM improves quite a bit under 48 hours and temp profiles are one of it's strong points I would have to lean towards it. Especially when the Euro has a tendency to be a touch warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I guess in an off hand sort of way yeah. It gives the low a better chance of intensifying which in turn allows better mixing. The problem we have (Per the Euro) is that you have to look all the way up to 700mb to get temps below freezing for the region as the low is moving off the coast of Va, and that by only a few degrees. So when you see temps from 850mb all the way to the surface at least 4-5 degrees over freezing that is a lot to overcome. Can it be overcome? Sure, but we need that low to go to town just off the coast. Of course we can also hope that the models are a little warm as well. One reason we don't cool much on the euro is how it has a somewhat disconnected blown apart qpf distribution. The initial developing waa precip races way out ahead and a huge dry slot forms. When we are in the best location for cooling under the h5 low there is only spotty light precip. Then a new Ccb develops but to our northeast as the storm reorganizes. Yes the track of the storm is fine but the evolution isn't. It's going through a reorganization stage at our latitude. The Canadian model with its more tightly wound system would give us a better shot. But it tracks the system a bit too close. Euro has the better track but worse everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 NAM shows a track straight up the coast now so all we need is the cold air to magically appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: NAM shows a track straight up the coast now so all we need is the cold air to magically appear. The Nams manage a few inches up here but it's temps are iffy at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Anybody have some QPF images. Seems like this is going to be <1.5"....pretty sad all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Congrats Assateague Island wild ponies?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One reason we don't cool much on the euro is how it has a somewhat disconnected blown apart qpf distribution. The initial developing waa precip races way out ahead and a huge dry slot forms. When we are in the best location for cooling under the h5 low there is only spotty light precip. Then a new Ccb develops but to our northeast as the storm reorganizes. Yes the track of the storm is fine but the evolution isn't. It's going through a reorganization stage at our latitude. The Canadian model with its more tightly wound system would give us a better shot. But it tracks the system a bit too close. Euro has the better track but worse everything else. Noticed that as well. Nam is very similar too. With it intensifying so far south initially and then reintensifying once again when the influence of the 500 low is being felt we unfortunately are being stuck in the middle with its evolution. About what I would expect this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Noticed that as well. Nam is very similar too. With it intensifying so far south initially and then reintensifying once again when the influence of the 500 low is being felt we unfortunately are being stuck in the middle with its evolution. About what I would expect this winter. I dunno....all the models are seemingly still trying to catch up it seems. The NAM has a 990mb slp hanging off the coast with a deformation band from the DelMarVa thru far Eastern PA and NJ into SE NY state with the 850 line hanging nearby. It isn't going to take much with that setup to at least get some wet flakes during the heavier precip mixing down verbatim on the NAM twin maps and even the RGEM. I still think guidance is struggling with, as another poster stated, the bombing, then occluding, then strengthening again/stall as the 500mb low catches up. It would take near perfect timing and positioning but hey, at least it's mid January and not mid March if that makes a difference. It would be cool to at least see some mixing at the tail end which is usually not modeled well. Here's hoping anyway. Still a REALLY powerful and interesting storm to track regardless of lack of wintry weather associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Anybody have some QPF images. Seems like this is going to be <1.5"....pretty sad all around. Less than an inch in some places...Happy dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is the most bullish with wind. Widespread gusts in the 40's and low 50's between 12-18z. Gfs mostly 30's to mid 40's. Strong E/NE wind gusts usually don't make it too far west of the bay but could mix down in heavier precip. 850's are ripping pretty good. It might depend on your location. The winds on the 06z GFS are pretty impressive. For my area, it has about 9 hours of sustained 30 MPH winds on Monday. I agree with losetoa6. It's not going to snow, but it will be fun tracking the winds and the bands of heaviest precip for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, cae said: It might depend on your location. The winds on the 06z GFS are pretty impressive. For my area, it has about 9 hours of sustained 30 MPH winds on Monday. I agree with losetoa6. It's not going to snow, but it will be fun tracking the winds and the bands of heaviest precip for this storm. Winds are imo the only thing worth tracking. Ive never seen a chance at accum snow for anyone here. NMD has a chance but awful slim at best. One thing I've learned through the years of looking at models is the only surface direction that verifies or even exceeds is W-NW. Easterly underperforms. It could be that a stable marine layer keeps things off the deck. I'm not really sure. However, the proximity of the h5 low is interesting with this one. Instability will be in play so hopefully we can mix down west of the bay. Exposed areas on hilltops will prob be the most likely. The areas that experience the heaviest precip rates should feel pretty stormy too. We'll see how it goes tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I dunno....all the models are seemingly still trying to catch up it seems. The NAM has a 990mb slp hanging off the coast with a deformation band from the DelMarVa thru far Eastern PA and NJ into SE NY state with the 850 line hanging nearby. It isn't going to take much with that setup to at least get some wet flakes during the heavier precip mixing down verbatim on the NAM twin maps and even the RGEM. I still think guidance is struggling with, as another poster stated, the bombing, then occluding, then strengthening again/stall as the 500mb low catches up. It would take near perfect timing and positioning but hey, at least it's mid January and not mid March if that makes a difference. It would be cool to at least see some mixing at the tail end which is usually not modeled well. Here's hoping anyway. Still a REALLY powerful and interesting storm to track regardless of lack of wintry weather associated with it. Well the Delmarva is east of us. That's the problem there really is no wrap around precip here when we have the opportunity under the h5 low. Even then it would be a long shot but the system is pretty disorganized at that point. It tightens up later and places like northern NJ with some elevation could get crushed. Our best hope is to root for something to pop under the h5 low. Anytime a closed h5 low tracks over you in mid winter it's worth keeping one eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well the Delmarva is east of us. That's the problem there really is no wrap around precip here when we have the opportunity under the h5 low. Even then it would be a long shot but the system is pretty disorganized at that point. It tightens up later and places like northern NJ with some elevation could get crushed. Our best hope is to root for something to pop under the h5 low. Anytime a closed h5 low tracks over you in mid winter it's worth keeping one eye on. Well, I am leaving in a few minutes for a 3-day getaway with friends to Wildwood, NJ. Our hotel room is literally on the boardwalk ocean front and our room is facing the ocean, 6th floor. I'm pulling for rough surf and winds.....could do without any flooding as that area of North Wildwood is prone even during a summer tstorm. Will be doing some video from our balcony. This wasn't planned as a storm chase, it just seems EVERY January when we plan this trip we have something to track....2014 was bitter cold, 2015 had the Euro Blizzard that never happened, 2016 had the January Blizzard, this year a Noreaster. I know any mixing S and E of I95 is a LONG shot, but it would be pretty cool to see some flakes or hear some pinging Monday night-Tuesday though chances for me at the immediate coast are slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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