Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'd put the Ukie in the cmc camp...Looks closer to its track then gfs fwiw. Still almost 80 hours out so still some adjustments to be made. Real interesting storm to track though. JMA also in this camp with the CMC and UKIE. Not sure if that's good company though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 EPS is losing it as well. Moved both the surface low and the 500mb low farther north and west before a transfer off the coast. Snowfall maps reflect this as they take a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Yesterday the NAM was west when the gfs and euro were east on the coast. Then it went east, and now it's back to west. I don't know if this means the low is sensitive to small changes or if it's just the NAM being the NAM. GFS has been pretty consistent over its last three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 There's only a weak baroclinic zone so the surface low will go wherever the H5 low feels like. And the H5 Low has plenty of room to meander within the troff, it might even split into 2, who knows. Only certainty it's too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It's the UNcertainty that drives my passion for weather. ..never really knowing for sure what's around the corner. Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it moved very much toward the GFS and Euro in its last run. All three (u,g,e) have what to me looks like a progression for the low that I don't remember ever seeing. The low seems to transfer from west Tenn to the upstate of South Carolina, head due north, then transfer again around our latitude. Perhaps I'm not seeing it correctly, but that low popping up out of nowhere in the upstate of SC is strange. Maybe that's just the model spitting out solutions that don't make sense because the data it's seeing is incomplete or maybe a better word is flawed, today. It will settle on just one transfer soon, I would bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Maybe that's just the model spitting out solutions that don't make sense because the data it's seeing is incomplete or maybe a better word is flawed, today. It will settle on just one transfer soon, I would bet. The suspense of uncertainty with colder or warmer rain is electric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 This feels like a dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 This is such a kick in the nuts. The anniversary of one of our best storms ever gives us a Nor'easter that's 33 & rain. I'd have just preferred a 60 degree blowtorch if it's not gonna snow. Hopefully people in the northern & western regions of the subforum can get a little something at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: This feels like a dryslot Good grief. Are we STILL talking about H2O's pin up girl?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: This is such a kick in the nuts. The anniversary of one of our best storms ever gives us a Nor'easter that's 33 & rain. I'd have just preferred a 60 degree blowtorch if it's not gonna snow. Hopefully people in the northern & western regions of the subforum can get a little something at least. More like 50 and rain. Its always 50 lately. Lots of 50. Better than a torch though. JI should remove the "wet snow" from the thread title. Likely will have to be in western NY or into Canada for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I bet Garrett County gets a few inches and parts of WV and southwest Pa will probably as well once 850's crash out that way . Yeah there certainly could be some snow mixed in out that way Monday night, but based on current trends it would not be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Give me 65 and sunny with a warm breeze over the crap this storm is going to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah there certainly could be some snow mixed in out that way Monday night, but based on current trends it would not be a big deal. Based on current trends this thing is going to transfer from Nashville to Asheville and then head nw to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Seriously, have you ever seen a storm transfer from southern Illinois to Asheville like the NAM shows? As crazy as this thing looks anything might be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: This is such a kick in the nuts. The anniversary of one of our best storms ever gives us a Nor'easter that's 33 & rain. I'd have just preferred a 60 degree blowtorch if it's not gonna snow. Hopefully people in the northern & western regions of the subforum can get a little something at least. Where the hell do you get 33 and rain from....I dont get all the talk on this one. Other than it being an interesting cut off low that produces wind, coastal issues and decent rains. Ill get backlash for this, but you guys over analyze things way too much on this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Looks like they are converging. Ggem definitely trended warmer and west a bit. Gefs came east some. Probably meet in the middle which is still no good for our purposes. I kinda punted this today when the eps and gefs lost any outliers with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Notable shift east in the gefs members... At this point it is to late. One of the key things we needed to see was the primary track to our south to keep our region in a somewhat easterly flow. With the primary tracking so far north into west virginia we see a more southerly flow that destroys any hopes of keeping the temps to a somewhat manageable level until after the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Where the hell do you get 33 and rain from....I dont get all the talk on this one. Other than it being an interesting cut off low that produces wind, coastal issues and decent rains. Ill get backlash for this, but you guys over analyze things way too much on this forum The 33 & rain comment was tongue in cheek (hence the italics). I know it'll be 50 dude. I posted in the panic room how every day seems to be 50 and clouds/rain just like February '98. This forum actually used to be funny but lately seems to be populated with uptight, humorless people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Though the CMC still shows some promise, albeit very slim, IMO it was just one very small step away from completely folding to the EPS and GEFS on its 00Z run. On the previous promising runs of all three models the one key feature was to bring the primary east of the mountains in the southeast before moving north and transferring off the coast. I have to believe that this was induced by the tendency for somewhat lower pressures on the lee side of the mountainous terrain in the south east with a westerly flow. Though the influence of this feature is minimal I think it was enough to tip the balance in favor of bringing the primary into the coastal plain. Now for whatever reason (500's, lack of westerly flow, greater separation with the primary from that influence, a cow farting) that influence is no longer enough on the GEFS and EPS so now we see the primary stay on the western side of the mountains when it begins its turn north. The 00Z CMC illustrates this idea fairly well. The CMC initially follows with the other models by beginning to bring the primary northward on the western side of the mountains only to then make an awkward transfer back down across the mountains into western NC/SC and northern GA as it sees that influence. Is this possibly, yes, is it probable, probably not, especially when you have the GFS and EURO arguing against it. I would not be surprised that with the 12Z run we see this influence diminished enough that we see an almost total cave to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: The 33 & rain comment was tongue in cheek (hence the italics). I know it'll be 50 dude. I posted in the panic room how every day seems to be 50 and clouds/rain just like February '98. This forum actually used to be funny but lately seems to be populated with uptight, humorless people. Just wait until New England kicks the **** out of Pittsburgh. He'll really be fun then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just wait until New England kicks the **** out of Pittsburgh. He'll really be fun then. Im actually not a Steelers fan lol. I know the image is tough to see but that pic is when Big Ben got his nose broke by the Ravens. I just thought it was funny. Ravens fan here, but that could still explain the bitterness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Im actually not a Steelers fan lol. I know the image is tough to see but that pic is when Big Ben got his nose broke by the Ravens. I just thought it was funny. Ravens fan here, but that could still explain the bitterness Ah, OK. Vikes fan here so by all rights I should be homicidal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Keeps ticking S and E but it's all too little too late for our respective areas. Nice storm tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Keeps ticking S and E but it's all too little too late for our respective areas. Nice storm tho. CMC is still trying. Jumps the primary over the mountains into the coastal plains farther south. Thus we aren't seeing the southerly flow that is completely wrecking the temps like the more northern solution of the GFS and the Euro. Probably a moot point anyway after casually looking at how deep the warm layer is running up from the surface. Even if the 850's were to cooperate I don't think we could overcome that except for the extreme higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: CMC is still trying. Jumps the primary over the mountains into the coastal plains farther south. Thus we aren't seeing the southerly flow that is completely wrecking the temps like the more northern solution of the GFS and the Euro. Probably a moot point anyway after casually looking at how deep the warm layer is running up from the surface. Even if the 850's were to cooperate I don't think we could overcome that except for the extreme higher elevations. NAM is a monster. Much deeper slp this run. 982@36 hrs vs 989/990 last run same time. Again, nice storm if you're into this hobby for more than just snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM is a monster. Much deeper slp this run. 982@36 hrs vs 989/990 last run same time. Again, nice storm if you're into this hobby for more than just snow. And then doesn't move an inch over the next 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: And then doesn't move an inch over the next 6 hours Funny how the center can jump 300 miles in 3-6 hours then gets captured and occludes while just sitting there spinning it's wheels. Cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Funny how the center can jump 300 miles in 3-6 hours then gets captured and occludes while just sitting there spinning it's wheels. Cool stuff. Be even cooler if that low position ends up about 100 miles se of where the NAM has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM is a monster. Much deeper slp this run. 982@36 hrs vs 989/990 last run same time. Again, nice storm if you're into this hobby for more than just snow. What interests me is the fact that at day 13 all 3 models were advertising a fairly significant storm for this time period with a very similar evolution as we are seeing now. Except for losing it for a couple days in the extended they have been pretty steadfast on running a low up the mountains with a transfer over to the coast in the general MD/DE coastal region. IF this general idea verifies it will be a major accomplishment for all 3 models and yet many will not be aware of it because it wasn't a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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