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Big Noreaster Rain/wind/wet snow thread 1/22-1/23


Ji

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Sleet requires snow to melt and then refreeze, right?  Or it requires rain to freeze.  Either way, you have to have a layer of cold deep enough for that to happen.  So, I would think that for places like here in Winchester, once the layers above start going below freezing, we are going to flip to snow.

RAIPZRSN.png

 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

RAIPZRSN.png

 

Yes, I understand that, but usually in sleet situations the surface is below freezing.  What we have out here, evidently, is warm, then cold, then warm.  Pretty much everything is above freezing but there must be a pretty good slice up there somewhere that is below freezing.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yes, I understand that, but usually in sleet situations the surface is below freezing.  What we have out here, evidently, is warm, then cold, then warm.  Pretty much everything is above freezing but there must be a pretty good slice up there somewhere that is below freezing.

ahhhh - sorry. i was answering your question about refreezing and all that ;) 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yes, I understand that, but usually in sleet situations the surface is below freezing.  What we have out here, evidently, is warm, then cold, then warm.  Pretty much everything is above freezing but there must be a pretty good slice up there somewhere that is below freezing.

in a more serious response.

my guess is its falling at such a heavy rate it doesn't have time to re-melt, thus it stays sleet. 

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Quote

000
FXUS61 KLWX 231901
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
201 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over southern Virginia will track northeast off the
Delmarva tonight. A cold front will pass through the area Wednesday
night. An upper-level trough will build overhead for the end of the
week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

This has been an extremely challenging forecast given the variety
of problems presented by the low...and its interaction with the
high pressure over northern Maine. The pressure gradient has
caused strong easterly winds which led to the wind advisory over
the eastern part of the forecast area...and this easterly fetch
led to a strong moisture flow off the Atlantic and areas of
moderate/heavy rainfall. Temperatures have turned cold enough at
higher elevations to cause the rain to change to snow in the
Highlands...and freezing rain in Shenandoah National Park. These
same wids are responsible for waters of the Potomac and Ches Bay
to rise...and we've even seen a few lightning strikes.

In good news the low is tracking to the northeast - slowly, but it
is happening. The heaviest precipitation should be coming to an
end this evening.

Wind advisory and winter weather advisories are in effect until 7
pm. Flood watch for the I-81 corridor until 11 pm.

 

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Went from heavy rain to nothing here in Easton. Just windy now.

TWC's futurecast fills us all back in, but that's not saying much.

 

eta: check out that hrrr wrap around!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=hrrr&area=east-us&cycle=20170123 18 UTC&param=sim_radar_1km&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1

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21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Really hope this batch of precip working through DC isn't the end.  Radar looks mighty dry towards Dover/St. Mary's

       18z HRRR seems to have a good handle on the back edge of the current precip passing SSE to NNW over the next couple of hours.   It has bands rotating back over our area (especially north of Rt 50) later tonight.

 

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Just now, high risk said:

       18z HRRR seems to have a good handle on the back edge of the current precip passing SSE to NNW over the next couple of hours.   It has bands rotating back over our area (especially north of Rt 50) later tonight.

 

Good...hoping (beyond hope really) that we somehow manage a surprise and pick up an inch or three of snow and sleet.  This winter has been so awful that I'm grasping at straws.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Good...hoping (beyond hope really) that we somehow manage a surprise and pick up an inch or three of snow and sleet.  This winter has been so awful that I'm grasping at straws.

Looks like Catoctin Mountain might see 3 inches of snow, and places like Westminster maybe an inch or so?

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Good...hoping (beyond hope really) that we somehow manage a surprise and pick up an inch or three of snow and sleet.  This winter has been so awful that I'm grasping at straws.

       Not ruling it out, but even though the NAM precip type is showing snow and sleet overnight, the NAM microphysics output is less enthused.     It certainly suggests sleet and maybe snow mixing in, but accumulations would likely be limited to far northern MD.    Of course, things seem to be running colder this afternoon than progged, so.....

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