Big Noreaster Rain/wind/wet snow thread 1/22-1/23

[Ji]

you have to like our odds when GGEM is least snowiest model!

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

LOL

Now guess what happens.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Nah, seriously this thing could be fun.  Just have to wait and see.  Pretty powerful system.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Nah, seriously this thing could be fun.  Just have to wait and see.  Pretty powerful system.

you of all people should pay the most attention. I remember a storm a long time ago that was heavy rain Leesburg but 6 inches in winchester

[Ji]

 

[BristowWx]

Still amazed a 989 low off ORF in Jan and it rains.  Need to have a sense of humor this year 

[RIC_WX]

1998 called, and they want their wx maps back.  Please return before Seinfeld, and don't try and pick up the phone while you are uploading.

 

[showmethesnow]

Because nothing says 'Hail Mary' like pulling out the NAM at 84 hrs. But the NAM is better at temp profiles then the globals, Right?

 

 

 

 

 

[BristowWx]

My work trip was cancelled for Monday.  This should trend worse now.  Long history of snow happening when I am out of town.  

[Sparky]

what a difference a year makes.

[clskinsfan]

Gonna need a stronger vort than what the GFS is showing. Needs to be more wound up to get the cold air down. Still a ways to go. But weaker is not better for us.

[mappy]

if the CMC happened, I'd be happier than a pig in poo

[mappy]

I'm not holding my breath, but would be cool if it happened. 

[showmethesnow]

06Z GFS evolution would take away any slim hopes we would have of seeing snow. Runs the surface low right through our region. For any chance whatsoever we need to see that low run to our south and east keeping us in the northwest sector of the precip field. Even then with the base temps preceding the storm it is asking a lot to see snow, especially into the metros.

[Bob Chill]

0z Euro @hr90 has a large portion of md and nova with wind gusts in the mid 50's. If it's not gonna snow at least we can track power outages and downed trees. And grill covers crossing county lines of course. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12Z NAM stalls the LP over VA for almost 24 hours fwiw, which probably isn't much.

 

[showmethesnow]

Here is probably what we need to see for this to have a chance to work. We need to see that low track to our south and then begin running up the coast. At that point we need the closed upper level low at 500's to capture and stack the surface low off the Del/Jersey coast, stalling it and even possibly pulling it it back to the west. Most of the ESP ensemble members that have shown snow over the last few runs have such a solution of a well timed capture with the few that retrograde the low westward  being fairly decent hits for portions of our region.

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS looks good.

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS looks good.

Are we looking at the same GFS? If that verifies we don't have a prayer.

[WinterWxLuvr]

41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Are we looking at the same GFS? If that verifies we don't have a prayer.

You apparently don't know me very well.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Interesting that the GFS and Ukie seemed to have swapped ideas.  I believe yesterday I read that the UKIE was an apps runner.  Now the GFS which was coastal is now meandering around the spine of the apps, and the ukie is coastal.

[WinterWxLuvr]

BTW, good idea to get the thread started early Ji.  

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Here is probably what we need to see for this to have a chance to work. We need to see that low track to our south and then begin running up the coast. At that point we need the closed upper level low at 500's to capture and stack the surface low off the Del/Jersey coast, stalling it and even possibly pulling it it back to the west. Most of the ESP ensemble members that have shown snow over the last few runs have such a solution of a well timed capture with the few that retrograde the low westward  being fairly decent hits for portions of our region.

12Z CMC actually shows this capture scenario with it pulling the low back west. Looking at this snapshot you would think that north and west of the cities would be getting hammered as it pulled the 850 through the cities and south and east. Yet the total snowfall map shows a different story. Looking at the surface temps explains that with upper 30's to low 40's through the region. That being said I would think if this were to verify we would see some snow in the heavier rates to the north and west though it might not accumulate.

 

[clskinsfan]

The CMC is SO CLOSE to a beatdown out here. 850's are good and surface is in the mid 30's. Lets see what the Euro says.

[Ralph Wiggum]

This isn't a 'horrible' look.....shame it's the GEM. However, it did tick East again, so there's that:

 

[Round Hill WX]

So many moving parts with this storm creating the definition of model chaos. I don't think we see model cohesion until later Saturday. 

-Parent Low

-Primary low

-phasing/capture

-Departing high pressure

-where does phase capture occur and how strong will determine dynamic cooling for our latitude. 

So much going on will bounce model track/strength around more than usual. Don't get excited and don't give up for those NW of the cities. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Euro and GFS are virtually the same at 12z Monday.

[Amped]

Euro has a 984 low over WV that weakens to 993 by the time it gets to Cape Cod. Unusual but not impossible.

[psuhoffman]

two runs in a row the GFS/Euro trend towards an inland track and a transfer to the coast at our latitude vs yesterdays idea of a transfer down near the VA capes.  GGEM all by itself is a pretty bad bet.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

I'd put the Ukie in the cmc camp...Looks closer to its track then gfs fwiw. Still almost 80 hours out so still some adjustments to be made.  Real interesting storm to track though.

I think it moved very much toward the GFS and Euro in its last run.

All three (u,g,e) have what to me looks like a progression for the low that I don't remember ever seeing.  The low seems to transfer from west Tenn to the upstate of South Carolina, head due north, then transfer again around our latitude.  Perhaps I'm not seeing it correctly, but that low popping up out of nowhere in the upstate of SC is strange.