MJO812 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Impressive winds on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 54 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The models do not take elevation into account well. There will be snow at high enough elevations. I'm talking the top of the pocono plateau Catskills peaks and souinches thern greens. Above 2k. Think of this like a very early or very late season event based on the encendent airmass. This is not a snow event for anyone in our area and the entire state of New Jersey. You need to be high enough up to have temps cold enough to overcome the warmth. Really this is a peaks storm. Over 3k your talking feet. The peaks of the Catskills saw feet (I believe 5) during March 2010 Extreme NW Sussex County, NJ, (i.e. High Point State Park) may see some flakes, but other than that, this is purely an all rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 12z Euro has wind gusts near 70 for the metro area. The winds will be the main concern. Every model has it gusting to or even over 60 mph near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12z Euro has wind gusts near 70 for the metro area. The winds will be the main concern. Every model has it gusting to or even over 60 mph near the coast. We'll have to see how well the winds mix down. In heavier showers, there could be 60-70mph gusts near the coast I would think given the winds right off the deck. Would definitely be enough for some power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We'll have to see how well the winds mix down. In heavier showers, there could be 60-70mph gusts near the coast I would think given the winds right off the deck. Would definitely be enough for some power outages. Hoping that the GGEM and NAM have the better idea with the stronger convection and more organized heavier bands making it up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We'll have to see how well the winds mix down. In heavier showers, there could be 60-70mph gusts near the coast I would think given the winds right off the deck. Would definitely be enough for some power outages. 60-70 mph gusts seems to be the consensus between the models for spots along the coast. The Euro is hinting that the strongest winds will occur during the day Monday. So the greatest tidal surge will probably come on the late afternoon into evening high tide. I guess we are fortunate that will be the lower of the 2 daily high tides. Looks like the South Shore will need 3-4 foot of surge on that tide cycle to reach moderate levels. So we'll have to monitor the exact direction and surge forecasts to figure out the peak high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 29 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We'll have to see how well the winds mix down. In heavier showers, there could be 60-70mph gusts near the coast I would think given the winds right off the deck. Would definitely be enough for some power outages. we saw our heaviest winds with Sandy in the dry slot...I don't necessarily think you need the heavy rain to mix down these winds. The soundings have decent instability for Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: 60-70 mph gusts seems to be the consensus between the models for spots along the coast. The Euro is hinting that the strongest winds will occur during the day Monday. So the greatest tidal surge will probably come on the late afternoon into evening high tide. I guess we are fortunate that will be the lower of the 2 daily high tides. Looks like the South Shore will need 3-4 foot of surge on that tide cycle to reach moderate levels. So we'll have to monitor the exact direction and surge forecasts to figure out the peak high tide. the 6am Tuesday high tide can still produce moderate flooding especially if the winds don't allow the low tide to drain back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: the 6am Tuesday high tide can still produce moderate flooding especially if the winds don't allow the low tide to drain back out. Especially for back bay and Sound locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: Especially for back bay and Sound locations. when low tide was as high as high tide during Sandy's afternoon, I knew we were in trouble at the evening high tide....when we had that period of strong SE winds the bays along the south shore literally seiched north, for example Jamaica Bay into southern Brooklyn and Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Storm watched issued ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-211100- /O.NEW.KOKX.SR.A.0001.170123T0600Z-170124T0600Z/ LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM- 308 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2017 ...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A STORM WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. * WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT ON OCEAN...35 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS 16 TO 21 FEET ON THE OCEAN...AND 5 TO 10 FT ON LONG ISLAND SOUND. ANZ450-451-211100- /O.NEW.KPHI.SR.A.0001.170123T0600Z-170123T2300Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- 335 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2017 ...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATION...THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. * WINDS...EAST 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. * SEAS...11 TO 16 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 What a strong storm on the Nam. Wow. The winds will be insane near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Thank you sir, may I have another If only the surface low wasn't weakening by the time it makes it up here. Could have been one of the best all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thank you sir, may I have another If only the surface low wasn't weakening by the time it makes it up here. Could have been one of the best all time. Still its nothing to shake a stick at, alot of wind and rain. If the storm doesn't weaken like the models show then we should really watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Insane storm on the 18z GFS. Parent low West Virginia. Very, very heavy rain and very strong winds. 40kt+ sustained as far NW as the DE Water Gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Insane storm on the 12z GFS. Parent low West Virginia. Very, very heavy rain and very strong winds. 40kt+ sustained as far NW as the DE Water Gap. 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Only saving grace on the GFS is that it's a relatively quick mover compared to some other solutions. By Tuesday morning it's long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: 18z GFS? Yes Don, however 12z was pretty nasty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yes Don, however 12z was pretty nasty too. I know. As the 18z GFS is rolling out, I thought you might have had a typo in referring to 12z. It looks like an impressive storm to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 18z para Nam smoking the good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 18z para Nam smoking the good stuff This is why the Nam or (Para Nam) can't be trusted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 18z para Nam smoking the good stuff Where is the cold air coming from? I see an injection of colder air into Northern NE but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Where is the cold air coming from? I see an injection of colder air into Northern NE but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squid1225 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: jeez talk about marginal temps haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 53 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I wanted scientific reasoning, not pretty blue colors on a model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I wasn't scientific reasoning, not pretty blue colors on a model run. Pretty sure you're smart enough to look yourself and understand, I also didn't make the 18z Nam myself so relax with questioning me on why it shows what, why the dynamics of the storm itself creating upper level cooling, and damming down into the Hudson valley is a Good question while other guidance suggests otherwise is a mystery to me, dynamic cooling? The first picture I posted is a perfect example of CAD signature at 850, not "pretty blue color" My my best guess is that the para Nam has a slightly stronger system, and the high is in a bit of a better place, interaction of the strengthening system/better high placement, upward motion and CAD are causing it to see snowfall south of other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Where is the cold air coming from? I see an injection of colder air into Northern NE but that's about it. Snippet from Upton.. Based on strong dynamics and consensus storm track over or just se of LI...potential for thermal profiles to diabatically cool to near freezing and result in a period of rain/sleet/snow mix well N&W of NYC Late Sun Night into Mon night...with even a period of heavy wet snow across NW hills. A light snow/sleet accumulation is possible across interior portions of NE NJ...Lower Hud...and Southern Ct...with potential for an advisory level wet snow for the NW hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 00z Nams gonna come in stronger... really impressive storm, gonna be a beaut on sat image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 00z Nams gonna come in stronger... really impressive storm, gonna be a beaut on sat image Stronger but wayyyy West it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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