UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 GFS is colder at 850 for the interior, ridging look prevalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Terrible GFS run for everyone except for Central New England northward Warm and rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Terrible GFS run for everyone except for Central New England northward Warm and rainy Surface maps are decieving, 850s are below 0 south of 84 at onset gfs drops 4-6" in my neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: What kind of winds are we looking at? Storm force? NO http://marine.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=153&y=220&site=okx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=153&map_y=220#.WIGMvb43vII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Dan76 said: NO http://marine.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=153&y=220&site=okx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=153&map_y=220#.WIGMvb43vII 40 knots sustained on Monday.....not bad..... thats 46 mph sustained here from the East. We could have gusts to storm force (60mph) if the sustained winds are over 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Dan76 said: NO http://marine.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=153&y=220&site=okx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=153&map_y=220#.WIGMvb43vII They haven't issued anything yet for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, Paragon said: What kind of winds are we looking at? Storm force? Storm force winds are certainly possible. I would even say likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 It's been moving west since 12z today. Not what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Id take this and run, concidering yesterday it was 2" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Storm force winds are certainly possible. I would even say likely at this point. Thanks, I'm pretty excited for this even if it's rain, the winds alone will make it worthy of tracking. On the point and click they have 40 knots sustained for our area from the East, which means storm force gusts are a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Id take this and run, concidering yesterday it was 2" of rain That's ugly we're definitely not done trending here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That's ugly we're definitely not done trending here. Going the wrong direction tho, GFS was much colder and south 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Big time soaker on GGEM, except for 100+ miles inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Big time soaker on GGEM, except for 100+ miles inland Gorgeous run. Brought a tear to my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Gorgeous run. Brought a tear to my eye. I'm good with it, would love to eat away at deficit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: Storm force winds are certainly possible. I would even say likely at this point. Maybe the ocean? An intensifying storm moving up the coast early next week will likely bring easterly gales to all waters from Sunday night into Monday night...with storm force wind gusts may be possible on the ocean and eastern most Long Island Sound. If these winds come to fruition...15 to 20 ft waves possible over the ocean waters...with 4 to 8 ft on LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Maybe the ocean? An intensifying storm moving up the coast early next week will likely bring easterly gales to all waters from Sunday night into Monday night...with storm force wind gusts may be possible on the ocean and eastern most Long Island Sound. If these winds come to fruition...15 to 20 ft waves possible over the ocean waters...with 4 to 8 ft on LI sound. Yep. Storm force winds are likely for the ocean imo. Some of the storm force gusts could impact the Jersey shore and Long Island. I fully expect high wind and coastal flood watches to be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yep. Storm force winds are likely for the ocean imo. Some of the storm force gusts could impact the Jersey shore and Long Island. I fully expect high wind and coastal flood watches to be posted. Don't count on coastal flood warnings. As blue wave posted yesterday astronomical tides are low. Even March 2010 just barely met coastal flood warning thresholds with much stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Don't count on coastal flood warnings. As blue wave posted yesterday astronomical tides are low. Even March 2010 just barely met coastal flood warning thresholds with much stronger winds. Upton A strong coastal storm may cause minor to locally moderate coastal flooding if its highest surge coincides with the early morning high tide cycles either Mon or Tue, which is the higher of the two daily high tide cycles. Stevens ensemble guidance is showing potential for surge building to 3 to 4 ft on Monday. Surge needed to cause minor coastal flooding is about 1.5-2.5 ft on the Long Island South Shore back bays, and 2.5-3.0 ft elsewhere. Surge needed to cause moderate coastal flooding is about 2.5-3.0 ft on the Long Island South Shore back bays, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. The other concern will be for significant beach erosion from long period easterly swells of 10-15+ ft Mon into Tue. Localized washover cant be ruled out if higher surge values are realized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Don't count on coastal flood warnings. As blue wave posted yesterday astronomical tides are low. Even March 2010 just barely met coastal flood warning thresholds with much stronger winds. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ESTOFS&area=NE&plot=srg&loop=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Upton A strong coastal storm may cause minor to locally moderate coastal flooding if its highest surge coincides with the early morning high tide cycles either Mon or Tue, which is the higher of the two daily high tide cycles. Stevens ensemble guidance is showing potential for surge building to 3 to 4 ft on Monday. Surge needed to cause minor coastal flooding is about 1.5-2.5 ft on the Long Island South Shore back bays, and 2.5-3.0 ft elsewhere. Surge needed to cause moderate coastal flooding is about 2.5-3.0 ft on the Long Island South Shore back bays, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. The other concern will be for significant beach erosion from long period easterly swells of 10-15+ ft Mon into Tue. Localized washover cant be ruled out if higher surge values are realized Minor to local moderate is a coastal flood advisory. Wide spread moderate is a coastal flood warning. Had this bad boy hit at the full moon and we were adding 2 feet right off the bat this would be a serious flood threat. As it stands now just water on the street in the usual locations. We haven't had a real deal coastal flood event from a nor'easter since December 92 and a non tropical event since March 1993. Like I said before even March 2010 due to astronomical tides and duration of strong winds just didn't cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Minor to local moderate is a coastal flood advisory. Wide spread moderate is a coastal flood warning. Had this bad boy hit at the full moon and we were adding 2 feet right off the bat this would be a serious flood threat. As it stands now just water on the street in the usual locations. We haven't had a real deal coastal flood event from a nor'easter since December 92 and a non tropical event since March 1993. Like I said before even March 2010 due to astronomical tides and duration of strong winds just didn't cut it I'm expecting wide spread moderate coastal flooding and in some cases severe especially on the north shore. That was Upton's preliminary take on the surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm expecting wide spread moderate coastal flooding and in some cases severe especially on the north shore. That was Upton's preliminary take on the surge. They tend to be conservative with winds and surge this far out and ramp up as we get closer. Definitely going to need full out storm fource winds for anything severe. Definitely possible. Should be our first real nor'easter in a couple years. Epic blue bomb for the poconos Catskills berks and greens. Looks like I'm going to have to do 2 weekends in a row in Vermont!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 blue bomb in the Poconos? How high up? We have a house there about 1,800 ft in elevation but it's actually a county north of Allentown (Carbon county), so it's south of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The storm coming at the time of the month near the low astronomical tides just means that they astronomical tide will be 1.5 feet less than last week with the full moon. We can still get significant coastal flooding especially if the peak surge coincides with the highest of the two daily tides on the morning cycle. It's very hard to guess what the exact tide levels will be this far out due to timing, intensity, and track. Our biggest events like 1992 came with a 5 foot surge 2 days after the highest astronomical tides of the month. So the tide levels were maximized. 3-4 foot surges coinciding with the highest tides of the day would get the South Shore to moderate levels. Even on the evening high tide which is lower, the back bays could still see moderate flooding. Some of the surge models have higher tides on the LI Sound like Rjay mentioned. Moderate flooding for South Shore starts at around the 7.5 tide level. The best case scenario would be the peak surge on low tide or the evening lower high tide cycle. Higher flooding outcomes with come with either morning high tide. So near a 3 foot surge would reach moderate in the morning and 4 foot for moderate in the evening. Full moon tides last week 1.5 foot higher I think places like Kings Point and Bayville can sneak in a "major" flood event while most other areas see "moderate" flooding. We'll see. I may be too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, Rjay said: I think places like Kings Point and Bayville can sneak in a "major" flood event while most other areas see "moderate" flooding. We'll see. I may be too bullish. While it's still a long way out for the surge model to be more specific, you are correct that the Western LI Sound may see the highest surges. It will just come down to the timing of the highest surge with the point in the daily high and low tide cycle. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ESTOFS&area=NE&plot=srg&loop=1#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 It would be much worse for the South Shore if there would be strong SE wind during the time of high tide. If the models shift to more of a NE wind, it will be much worse for the typical nor'easter spots on the north shore. The south shore problem areas like Freeport will likely flood regardless with a strong fetch for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Long duration E and dangerous NE fetch . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 todays ao and nao forecast is alarming to me...even the pna looks chity in the long run...hopefully it changes for the better in February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Starting to look as if even the inland folks won't escape and all rain solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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