UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 EPS following the op, coming in very snowy for interior, some member are sig snowfall for NYC metro as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: EPS following the op, coming in very snowy for interior, some member are sig snowfall for NYC metro as well Looks very good for well inland and PA Very interesting storm to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Looks very good for well inland and PA Very interesting storm to track I'm slightly interested now, still think I'm a bit too south, but a few inches are on the table now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12 eps members give NYC accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 12 eps members give NYC accumulations With limited cold air to work with, we're going to need some major dynamics at play in order to see accumulating snow down to the coast. For that to happen, we're probably going to need this beast to go below 980mbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Tail end of nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Tail end of nam That's with the initial overrunning that's way out ahead of the main surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I heard that the Para Nam is even colder OTG by 06monday, and the main event hasn't even started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Check out these 850s take a nose dive as precip moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 This storm has a different look than it had a few days ago on the models. A few days ago we had an occluding storm with screaming SE winds into the coast and no cold air anywhere. Today we see the models want to wait to start decaying the storm until it's up in our area and the storm is much further east than originally modeled. High pressure is in a better spot and there's enough dynamics for snow in northern and western parts of the metro area. Let's see if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Uptons first mention of snow for this systems yet Based on strong dynamics and se trend towards a track over or just se of LI...potential for thermal profiles to diabatically cool to near freezing and result in a rain/snow mix well N&W of NYC for a portion of this event...with even a period heavy wet snow across NW hills. Still too much uncertainty at this point to talk amounts...but at least a low potential exists for an accumulating wet snow for the NW hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 18z GFS precip rolls in around 18z Monday, snow north and west of NYC, rain to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 18z Light snow continues for inland area, very close this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 850 line pushes up to Albany as this gets going south of jersey coastline... 987mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 heavy rain for all 06z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Tracks much closer to shore than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Tracks much closer to shore than 12z and slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 850 line pushes up to Albany as this gets going south of jersey coastline... 987mb Flips us over to heavy snow.. Looks and feels like an incoming blue bomb. 18z GFS Hr108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: heavy rain for all 06z Tuesday 18z GFS @ 06z Tues. verbatim isn't rain up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: and slightly colder This is and always was a rain storm for you (and 90% of this subforum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, snywx said: 18z GFS verbatim isn't rain up here.. Really? Looked like rain with 850s above 0 and surface around 34... i just toggled back forth between surface tho, and surface maps were mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: This is and always was a rain storm for you (and 90% of this subforum). Well yes but you can't deny the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 airmass is garbage and we get too much east flow for snow anywhere near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 People who live along the coast should really start paying attention to NWS statements on this storm. A few days ago I was very concerned for the Jersey Shore and the south shore of Long Island due to the prospect of seeing long duration SE winds. Now that it looks like the storm will be further east the north shore of LI and Jersey Shore really need to pay attention as long duration NE winds should create at the very least moderate coastal flooding with some areas receiving severe coastal flooding. The south shore should still see significant flooding but the threat isn't as bad as it looked a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 End of Nam looks much warmer than 18z not a bad start for the nam, close to being a nice snowstorm for interior temps start falling and 850s fall as storm starts to intensify, excited to see tomorrow's Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Storms just getting going at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: End of Nam looks much warmer than 18z not a bad start for the nam, close to being a nice snowstorm for interior temps start falling and 850s fall as storm starts to intensify, excited to see tomorrow's Nam NAM looks great for the interior.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Rjay said: People who live along the coast should really start paying attention to NWS statements on this storm. A few days ago I was very concerned for the Jersey Shore and the south shore of Long Island due to the prospect of seeing long duration SE winds. Now that it looks like the storm will be further east the north shore of LI and Jersey Shore really need to pay attention as long duration NE winds should create at the very least moderate coastal flooding with some areas receiving severe coastal flooding. The south shore should still see significant flooding but the threat isn't as bad as it looked a few days ago. What kind of winds are we looking at? Storm force? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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