NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The ridge over the plains is much less amplified resulting in a much more progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Temps cool somewhat on Monday evening but things are already wrapping up. Orange/Ulster/Sullivan crew pick up 4-8" of snow. 2-4" for Rockland and Mid-Hudson Valley. Very little or nothing Southeast of that. All rain in CNJ, NYC and LI. 1-2 FEET for Springfield, MA. Only about 1-1.25" of rain for those that are mostly wet and not white. Winds are meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The Interior snowstorm shown on the 12z GFS is not entirely unreasonable in the forecast pattern. Even some snow that reaches the NYC area and nearby suburbs wouldn't be unreasonable. A significant snowfall still appears unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 This map is a bit more generous than the paid maps I was working off of, especially for NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The 12z Canadian is a big rainy Noreaster. 2-3" of rain and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The low position AND the high position are quickly becoming close to a classic set-up for a significant snowstorm somewhere in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The UKMET is an Apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Something that worries me is that all of the guidance in the last 24 hours shows the surface low weakening as it reachs our lattitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 gefs paint a snowy interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 e18 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: gefs paint a snowy interior It def looks interesting for those 40+ miles away from the coast. The colder trend is pretty obivous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Early through its run but it Looks like euro is going to shift SE also, weaker through 00z Sunday also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The Euro is coming in flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 18z Sunday, 997L just off Virginia coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Light to moderate rain moves in on the Euro beginning as early as Noon on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Rain continues through Monday, warm even for the interior so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 CCB cranking over the immediate interior on Monday afternoon. Temps starting to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Precip shutting off by afternoon with the 500mb low almost overhead. Big snowstorm for far NE PA and Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The Euro shows less than 1" of snow for anyone South and East of Port Jervis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 It appears that in either scenario: a flatter or more explosive solution that rain is the city's outcome, only question seems to be is how closely the snow encroaches to our NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Light rain could redevelop Monday evening as the surface low approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Euro drops accumulating snows into Orange County, step in the right direction, don't know how much more room we have for improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Still a solid 2-3" of rain for most of the Metro area. Winds are meh away from the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2-3" of snow anyone north and west of rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro drops accumulating snows into Orange County, step in the right direction, don't know how much more room we have for improvement Grasping at straws here but I guess if it shifts even further SE but maintains some strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Grasping at straws here but I guess if it shifts even further SE but maintains some strength? As I said before, with weak high pressure, I'm not sure how much room we have to improve, we would need the perfect track/intensity/timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 NYC even sees a dusting to 1" on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Bottomline is that the 12z Euro took a step in the right direction for those in the interior looking for snow. Positive trends from the 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 the wind and coastal flooding is the main story here for most on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 If the 500mb low closes off so early, a ton of warm air aloft is brought in from the ocean as the storm comes in. There isn't much cold air in place beforehand or a high to send cold air in at the surface, so what snow there is will likely be from dynamics with the upper air low. Right now there looks to be a chance at something decent far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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