NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 JCP&L now reporting 17,325 customers without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 HRRR total precip amounts not that impressive through 6am.... most is eastern LI/Jersey coastline and we've dry slotted by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: HRRR total precip amounts not that impressive through 6am.... most is eastern LI/Jersey coastline it's getting to that point that places north and west might be cutting back on total precip. as it's pretty clear how this is trending cooler and southeast. considering that i had sleet falling a few mins ago is a testament to this early bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: it's getting to that point that places north and west might be cutting back on total precip. as it's pretty clear how this is trending cooler and southeast. considering that i had sleet falling a few mins ago is a testament to this early bust. I'd say the opposite, the LP tracks too close to coast and we dryslot HRRR says precip is done by 3-4am.... less than 1" for NYC, jersey gets more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Most of the modeling has a good amount of rain falling during the day tomorrow which is not accounted for on the HRRR. Example: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Anyway, we're kind of beyond the useful range for modeling now. The radar looks really good right now with strong banding over the Mid-Atlantic and another band organizing over Central NJ and moving NNW. These should all rotate in over the next 6 hours or so. The surface low is still deepening, so the storm is still strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Most of the modeling has a good amount of rain falling during the day tomorrow which is not accounted for on the HRRR. Example: I agree it's probably not correct, but the 24 hour HRRR has no more precip after that initial push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I agree it's probably not correct, but the 24 hour HRRR has no mire precip after that initial push Your first clue is that you're asking a short term mesoscale model for a forecast beyond 3-5 hours. We're still a few hours away from the HRRR's wheelhouse. And it's also important to remember that the HRRR will be good at identifying some mesoscale features where the heaviest precip might occur, but it's not necessarily useful for things like storm QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The HRRR was also too dry/southeast with the early Jan snowstorm until very close in. I wouldn't be very concerned with what it shows when other models disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 18z NAM doesn't waiver. A strong area of heavy convection should continue to form off the NJ coast over the next three hours and then advance Northwestward. If anything, the timing has just slown down a bit. By midnight, close to an inch of rain should have already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Everyone needs to relax. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Should be ripping just after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Rough Tuesday incoming for power crews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, mikemost said: Rough Tuesday incoming for power crews. That's the 850mb level or about 5000 feet above the surface. Some of the 925mb winds, which are going to be close to Hurricane force could mix down in the heavier banding. 925mb is about 2500 feet up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: That's the 850mb level or about 5000 feet above the surface. Some of the 925mb winds, which are going to be close to Hurricane force could mix down in the heavier banding. 925mb is about 2500 feet up. Yes, I'm aware. I was posting the 850mb winds in same frame as your reflectivity post above to illustrate that mixing will occur in many areas where the atmospheric inversions will be at a minimum. I can only post 850mb/10m as you know since it's tidbits. I'd post the stormvista 925mb maps if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, mikemost said: Yes, I'm aware. I was posting the 850mb winds in same frame as your reflectivity post above to illustrate that mixing will occur in many areas where the atmospheric inversions will be at a minimum. I can only post 850mb/10m as you know since it's tidbits. I'd post the stormvista 925mb maps if I could. Ah okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Everyone needs to relax. It's coming. I know, I know, I'm freaking out over getting 1" off rain vs. 2". Phew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's the 850mb level or about 5000 feet above the surface. Some of the 925mb winds, which are going to be close to Hurricane force could mix down in the heavier banding. 925mb is about 2500 feet up. Considering the potential for gravity waves (and ducting as okx alluded to yesterday), h85 plays more of a role than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, danstorm said: I know, I know, I'm freaking out over getting 1" off rain vs. 2". Phew! Yeah because rain is the only concern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Impovement on the HRRR. Some embedded 2-3"+ totals in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 First heavy band approaching the city as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Heaviest winds for central jersey should be later on tonite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Well the NAM and other models today look to be shifting the strongest winds east a little, to be mostly over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Left work early to go to the beach. I'm on Ocean Parkway at field 6. Winds are easily sustained in the 40s. The wave action is insane . Significant erosion occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: Left work early to go to the beach. I'm on Ocean Parkway at field 6. Winds are easily sustained in the 40s. The wave action is insane . Significant erosion occurring. Take pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Well the NAM and other models today look to be shifting the strongest winds east a little, to be mostly over the ocean. I haven't seen that brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Take pics Trying to upload the video. I'm at Gilgo now. Beaches are taking a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 RGEM is intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The 20z HRRR has a super intense band coming through between 04 and 07z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Trying to upload the video. I'm at Gilgo now. Beaches are taking a beating. And they said they caught the guy... Jk. On a more serious note, I was on Ocean Pkwy before, you ain't kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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