Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 a lot of lightning strikes already in Virginia now ...with these weak bands. so get ready to rock-n-roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The GFS straightened itself out somewhat and the NAM and RGEM are wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS straightened itself out somewhat and the NAM and RGEM are wicked. It's still mostly under an inch which I could see happening in places the way the radar is kind of splitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 16 foot seas already. just off the coast http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wave.php?station=44025&meas=sght&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: It's still mostly under an inch which I could see happening in places the way the radar is kind of splitting It has the same max as the NAM and RGEM over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Some patchy spots of intense winds showing up on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jason WX said: Some patchy spots of intense winds showing up on the HRRR. The HRRR is not very useful for surface wind forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The 12z NAM did not dissapoint. By early tomorrow morning we should have a sub 990mb surface low stalled East of ACY. A good amount of rain should still be falling overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z NAM did not dissapoint. By early tomorrow morning we should have a sub 990mb surface low stalled East of ACY. A good amount of rain should still be falling overnight. good to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 31.3 and very light snow. confirms the new , colder NAM is verifying thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The HRRR is not very useful for surface wind forecasts. I've noticed that as well. The experimental one is very good with wind directions. I've seen it catch timing of sea breeze but the speeds for gusts are way off. It generally assumes once the sun is down the gusts end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: 31.3 and very light snow. confirms the new , colder NAM is verifying thus far. Where r u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I've noticed that as well. The experimental one is very good with wind directions. I've seen it catch timing of sea breeze but the speeds for gusts are way off. It generally assumes once the sun is down the gusts end. I've also noticed it assumes that every land mass is a mountain range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Hi res Nam suggests this could flirt with sub 980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I've noticed that as well. The experimental one is very good with wind directions. I've seen it catch timing of sea breeze but the speeds for gusts are way off. It generally assumes once the sun is down the gusts end. i race sailboats, so i look at the hrrr wind forecasts quite a lot - i notice that it is frequently initialized with directions completely different than what is observed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Upton says top gusts to 60 mph, down from 70. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: 31.3 and very light snow. confirms the new , colder NAM is verifying thus far. 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Where r u A few flakes flying here as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Where r u Bacon Strips is in Tobyhanna, PA. Unfortunately, the locations don't show up on phones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Bacon Strips is in Tobyhanna, PA. Unfortunately, the locations don't show up on phones. Yeah that's odd. I also have noticed the mobile version sometimes loves getting stuck on a specific post on a page whenever you refresh it until the postings advance to another page. Normally that will only happen if the post was yours but I see it do it often when it isn't. Even closing the window and reopening won't work. It will continue focusing on going to that post and location on the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Heaviest, most intense rain falls 04-07Z on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: Upton says top gusts to 60 mph, down from 70. Not sure why. The surface wind forecasts on some of the recent model runs have lowered significantly. Partly because the storm is now forecasted to max out over Southern and Central NJ instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The worst part of the storm looks to be tonight into tomorrow morning. Nam para came in colder for many areas. I wouldnt be shocked to see sleet instead of rain during the height of the storm for the NYC metro area . Nam Para shows that. Interesting storm coming up. Many places are colder than forecasted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The distribution of 850 temps around this occluding storm is going to be chaotic and there will be a range pf precipitation types, but one interesting parameter is that 925mb temps are forecasted to be comfortably below freezing for most of the storm, including at the coast. What this means is that Catskills above about 2500 feet would expect to be 100% frozen and it wouldn't be surprising to see some sleet mixed at some point along the coast, even possibly a few wet splats on your windshield if you happen to be driving during the heaviest precip. Inland will be interesting for wintry precip. Light snow reported at KOXC, 41 miles from here as the crow flies. Doesn't matter much at the coast, but that's pretty close by for a cold column. It's still dry here and 39 degrees. Reminds me a little of December 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Surprised the GFS isn't being discussed.... temp profiles similar to RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Surprised the GFS isn't being discussed.... temp profiles similar to RGEM I posted in wrong thread - Quote this colder and drier pattern is a bit troublesome in terms of QPF. GFS could be onto something. It only puts out 0.50 to 0.75 total QPF in SNJ now.. and radar trends would tend to agree. when you have a colder than expected scenario....it usually means drier than expected as well. especially with a Low that isn't all that intense...barely into the 980's. so yea...the GFS is the only fly in the ointment now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The 1/23/2017 12z ECMWF QPF Output for Select Cities: Allentown 0.79 Bangor 1.46 Boston 1.80 Burlington 1.34 Caribou 1.57 Concord 1.22 Danbury 1.49 Groton 1.11 Harrisburg 0.92 Hartford 1.27 Hyannis 2.28 Montreal 0.65 Morristown 1.65 Nantucket 1.50 New Haven 1.44 New York City-JFK 2.01 New York City-LGA 2.00 New York City-NYC 2.05 Newark 2.00 Philadelphia 0.79 Pittsfield 1.21 Portland 1.78 Poughkeepsie 1.29 Providence 1.43 Scranton 1.07 Trenton 1.16 Westhampton 1.59 White Plains 1.86 Worcester 1.22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Low tide in freeport was about 2 ' below a normal high tide and as of 1:30 it's a normal high tide with 3.5hrs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Thanks Don. Interesting , almost a full inch difference between Newark and Trenton. Similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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