Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 had a nice icestorm here this morning.. 0.25 (atleast) all over. Temps were suppose to go above freezing around 8pm last night...but didn't until 10am this morning. same flow , but slightly colder Sunday Night and Monday....it'll be icy again for sure here. temps always bust with that flow...been like this for years here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Excited for an epic soaker. Been a long time. Setup reminds me of March 2010. For those that don't remember that one, it dropped 4-6" of rain locally and produced damaging winds once the center passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Excited for an epic soaker. Been a long time. Setup reminds me of March 2010. For those that don't remember that one, it dropped 4-6" of rain locally and produced damaging winds once the center passed. It also downed a huge number of trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Excited for an epic soaker. Been a long time. Setup reminds me of March 2010. For those that don't remember that one, it dropped 4-6" of rain locally and produced damaging winds once the center passed. Are you talking about this storm? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2010_nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Interesting no member has mentioned this might occur on first anniversary of last year's colossus. Of course we had mid-20's and NE gusts in the 40 knot range a year ago. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Newman said: Are you talking about this storm? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2010_nor'easter Don't think we mix nearly as well as we did with that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 20 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Don't think we mix nearly as well as we did with that storm If you're going to say that, at least throw up a sounding and explain why you think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 If it wasn't on a Monday I'd consider chasing this one down to Coney Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Excited for an epic soaker. Been a long time. Setup reminds me of March 2010. For those that don't remember that one, it dropped 4-6" of rain locally and produced damaging winds once the center passed. Mmhm ... both that storm and this upcoming one seem to have closed lows moving up the coast with high pressure around the New England area. I haven't looked in-depth or anything at the two storms and how they compare ... that's just something I noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 well the cmc has us almost from a mix to snowstorm here in the city..somehow i think the high will be strong enough to push it off the coast instead of a apps runner and keep some cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Not often you see a 994 on top of Long Island with bulk of precip on Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS is a soaker to the candian border we get it dude. u should be the hurricane tracker. it shows rain but its still ways out and its the GFS. Its time to admit that there's little chance we get a snowstorm out of this one but its fun to track it. edit: could this turn out to be a rain to snow event for at least Ulster 84 and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: we get it dude. u should be the hurricane tracker. it shows rain but its still ways out and its the GFS. Its time to admit that there's little chance we get a snowstorm out of this one but its fun to track it. edit: could this turn out to be a rain to snow event for at least Ulster 84 and west? I'm not buying the GGEM solution nowhere near excited for this as a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GGEM, slowly but surely finding its way home, 1 run at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 No matter what happens, pretty solid agreement on some deficit cutting precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GGEM, slowly but surely finding its way home, 1 run at a time First of all I think that snow map goes south. Cause it's going to get colder after Friday I think we get a stronger block and that high near Nova Scotia will scoot southwest earlier because it'll be stronger than forecasted. I didn't check but has the high been trending stronger? Secondly if the new and better pattern is coming in this results in the storm coming more south east. Strong dynamics could really bring snow in lesser chance for it snow it because of its dynamic cooling. Not to mention if the storm rolls in at night which always helps. I don't want to be the bullseye 5 days out. Edit: (I've been 5 posted)...And third thing if the good pattern is breaking down usually the low placement on these models starts trending a northwesterly direction which happened about ten days ago when we got a decent hit. Our good pattern was breaking down and it went north. The bad pattern until this Friday is going to break down into something decent therefore my conclusion is that the colder air will be more south on the future runs, check the euro tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: First of all I think that snow map goes south. Cause it's going to get colder after Friday I think we get a stronger block and that high near Nova Scotia will scoot southwest earlier because it'll be stronger than forecasted. I didn't check but has the high been trending stronger? Secondly if the new and better pattern is coming in this results in the storm coming more south east. Strong dynamics could really bring snow in lesser chance for it snow it because of its dynamic cooling. Not to mention if the storm rolls in at night which always helps. I don't want to be the bullseye 5 days out. The GGEM has been trending towards other guidance... slowly, yesterday afternoon GGEM gave NYC a foot of snow, then the line moved north, and north again, now again tonight lol, how can u possible take it serious with the euro and gfs locked on a similar solution... for someone who always talked about things trending you seem to be ignoring the GGEM trend and to answer your question: No the high has not trended stronger, weaker actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 GGEM 850 GFS 850 euro 850 Euro is closer to the GGEM than GFS but not quite able to tap the cold air and draw it down as it strengths like the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Anyone got the Euro precip? Looked really cold on 850 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 hours ago, HeinzGuy said: Anyone got the Euro precip? Looked really cold on 850 maps No snow until you get up towards Binghampton. 1-3" of rain and fairly impressive surface winds. 980mb low passes near Central Long Island but is already starting to weaken at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 14 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Excited for an epic soaker. Been a long time. Setup reminds me of March 2010. For those that don't remember that one, it dropped 4-6" of rain locally and produced damaging winds once the center passed. I've been thinking the same thing. That storm felt a lot like a strong tropical storm around here. It'll be interesting to see if we get the same hurricane force wind gusts along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The 00z ECMWF did tick a bit Southeast from the prior run. This actually isn't all that far off from trending colder. The 500mb low weakens some on Monday night and that helps to halt the strong Southeasterly feed, but at the same time limits moisture as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 # 2 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: # 2 please ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: ? Looks like analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Looks like analogs Likely so but that is one strange analog and doesnt match up with with virtual complete lack of cold air available. Nothing wrong a strong wet noreaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Nothing wrong a strong wet noreaster! Except in Jan/Feb. Anyway, at least this one will likely put down some snow somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6z GFS is fun to look at. I couldn't keep track of how many s/w it trys to pop from the Mississippi River to Cape Cod. Should be fun to track never the less. Of topic, but it sure looks like California is in for another good soaking...Permanent Drought continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 58 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said: Likely so but that is one strange analog and doesnt match up with with virtual complete lack of cold air available. Nothing wrong a strong wet noreaster! That's one of the CIPS analogs. The product seems to give too much weight to snowier analogs in marginal or worse patterns. The mix, for the most part, isn't bad. The weights seem to imply a greater probability of appreciable or significant snow events than is likely in marginal or worse patterns. Analogs #2, #8, and #9 provide great examples of why I believe the weighting scheme isn't great in such patterns. The synoptic pattern, which can now be forecast with a reasonable degree of accuracy (with fairly good agreement among the GEFS and EPS) is extremely hostile to such outcomes, especially #2. Even if small details, which remain more uncertain than the big picture idea, are tweaked, the pattern would still remain hostile to the outcomes shown in #2, #8, and #9. Considering the forecast pattern, even with tweaks in details, #2 should probably be the least likely outcome. #8 and #9 should probably be among the bottom five. Often, when patterns are marginal or worse, it seems that the weighting of the CIPS analogs is inconsistent with the pattern. For better patterns, the weighting appears to be less of an issue. In sum, one is likely dealing with a bias of the product and that should be taken into consideration when using it. FWIW, the statistical probabilities I came up with for a PNA+/AO+/EPO- setup similar to what is forecast were as follows for NYC: No snow: 37% < 1”: 71% 1” or more: 29% 2” or more: 8% 4” or more: <0.1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Major Southeast shift on the 12z GFS incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.