donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 It appears that perhaps the most dangerous part of the storm will likely occur from 1/24 0z to 1/24 9z as both the 1/23 0z NAM and 1/22 18z GFS are in strong agreement about the development and passage of an intense area of precipitation between 1/24 3z and 1/24 8z (moving through NYC between (1/24 5z and 8z). The strongest winds will likely occur ahead of and during the passage of this area of heavy precipitation. Below are relevant sections of maps from Tropical Tidbits.com: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: The Weather Channel I might take pictures over here in southern Brooklyn Good luck and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Happy that you getting your storm of choice. This storm will be a doozy Don't get me wrong, I'd rather be looking at 2 feet of snow incoming, but with all the severe weather going on down South, this storm has such an ominous feeling that it feels more like a tropical storm incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It appears that perhaps the most dangerous part of the storm will likely occur from 1/24 0z to 1/24 9z as both the 1/23 0z NAM and 1/22 18z GFS are in strong agreement about the development and passage of an intense area of precipitation between 1/24 3z and 1/24 8z (moving through NYC between (1/24 5z and 8z). The strongest winds will likely occur ahead of and during the passage of this area of heavy precipitation. Below are relevant sections of maps from Tropical Tidbits.com: High tides around here are at around 5:30PM. I really hope it's not at its worst around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I remember out ahead of the October 1996 nor'easter we had winds really ramp up quickly the night before the storm. That event would be my anolog as far as coastal effects like wind and surge. The difference with that storm is that it occurred with trees still in leaf and resulted in the most tree damage of any event during the 90s-2000s. December 92 had stronger winds and higher surge but occurred after trees had lost their leaves which limited tree damage which is what I expect tomorrow if the winds peak in the 60s for gusts. This is going to be a solid nor'easter but the low astronomical tides and culled trees without leaves should limit damage overall. I highly recommend getting down to the beach tomorrow afternoon if you can!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: High tides around here are at around 5:30PM. I really hope it's not at its worst around then. I agree. The 4 km NAM is quicker in its timing, so there remains a possibility that the worst could be earlier than what the 0z NAM (12 km) and 18z GFS are showing. The morning guidance, HRRR, and radar will be invaluable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 For those who are interested, there's an excellent case study on the March 2010 nor'easter that can be found here: http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2010/13Mar2010.pdf This storm probably won't be quite as severe (particularly in terms of total precipitation), but it will take place with strong blocking in the Hudson/James Bay region just as had been the case with the March 2010 nor'easter. The 500 mb maps are below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Clearly its rain, why are the snowmaps for NAM showing some snow accumulations pretty much everyone on tropicaltidbits.com? Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 RGEM is 1" LE pure sleet up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Clearly its rain, why are the snowmaps for NAM showing some snow accumulations pretty much everyone on tropicaltidbits.com? Odd. Been under a rock the last two days? Those maps are seriously flawed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Toss the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Toss the 00z GFS. It has less than 3/4" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It has less than 3/4" qpf Exactly, tossed. No other model has the convection that far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It has less than 3/4" qpf NAM came in with less QPF as well, at least for areas N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Toss the 00z GFS. Especially since it's showing far more snow than sleet... GFS is a mess, cuts into 2 separate lows and dry slots, most precip to our far west in Pa, and Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, rygar said: NAM came in with less QPF as well, at least for areas N&W Nam total Qpf didn't change much, amount of Frozen for NW decreases due to torched 700-850 layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, rygar said: NAM came in with less QPF as well, at least for areas N&W Noise. If you look at the panels it's about as intense of a band as you'll ever see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam total Qpf didn't change much, amount of Frozen for NW decreases due to torched 700-850 layers Really depends upon location and what version, the high res nam definitely cut back for N&W. That was all i was interested in, it may have cut back other areas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It has less than 3/4" qpf Given the great consistency of the other guidance and precipitable water associated with the coming storm, the GFS appears way too light with the qpf. Much of the NYC area will probably see 1.5"-2.5" precipitation with some amounts > 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GGEM is like the GFS. Something went haywire with the globals tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GGEM is like the GFS. Something went haywire with the globals tonight. How are they with winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: How are they with winds? Still very intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Still very intense. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 49 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Exactly, tossed. No other model has the convection that far SE. It just had its dumb run of the cycle, carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 down to 38 here already. dropped pretty quick from 41 to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 down to 41 here in the bronx and dropping pretty fast,it was 45 an hour ago. winds are still east se so the northerlies haven't kicked in yet. it's drizzling a.t.m as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Long range HRRR has heavy rain moving in at 22Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Stayed up for the Euro which thankfully held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 50 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Stayed up for the Euro which thankfully held serve. And gor colder for many areas north and west of the area I think the city also gets in on some sleet. Should be a very interesting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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