UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Thanks, that helps. I'm switching my appointment to Wednesday. A 160 mile round trip from Orange county to LI seems like the last thing I should be doing tomorrow. Oh yea F that... even all rain event I wouldn't bother lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The warm nose at 800mb is still there on the NAM. Granted it gets colder as Monday night hits, but it's a sleet profile, not snow, including the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: The warm nose at 800mb is still there on the NAM. Granted it gets colder as Monday night hits, but it's a sleet profile, not snow, including the interior. Agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Hurricane force wind warning issued for the south shore coastal waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 It appears that the Tropical Tidbits snow maps remain unfixed. They are currently showing spurious appreciable to even significant snowfall in areas that will see little or no accumulating snow as per the soundings. In southern NJ, there will very likely be no snow or sleet, but the maps are showing around 5" snow and sleet. Caution is advised when looking at the NAM solution. The NAM is not as cold or snowy as the snow product suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Upton pretty bulllish on this storm: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Significant coastal storm expected late tonight into Tuesday with high winds, heavy rain, and coastal impacts. A closed low over the southern Plains will continue to intensify and move east to the southern Mid Atlantic region on Monday. The eventual result will be a strong surface low developing over the Southeast states Sunday night and riding up the coast through Monday, reaching a position just south of Long Island by late Monday night. The low will interact with high pressure building south from Quebec to produce a very tight pressure gradient and long easterly fetch from south of Newfoundland. Model spread is closing with regard to timing of the strongest winds and heaviest rain, with the strongest winds expected Monday afternoon and evening. Strong Winds...upgraded coastal areas to a high wind warning for high confidence in sustained 30-40 mph with gusts 60-70 mph. Highest winds expected across Long Island, particularly on the east end and along the south shore. This based on excellent potential for downward momentum transfer of a 70-75 kt 950-975 mb LLJ via both mixing in either a well-mixed or moist absolutely unstable boundary layer. The storm also presents high potential for a gravity wave event to unfold and enhance downward momentum transfer, as a highly unbalanced/ageostrophic upper level flow develops in the exit region of an intense upper jet streak moving up the coast, with large duct function values present in the low levels over and just south of the CWA. PW of 3-4 standard deviations above avg continues to be signaled. Coastal front development and orographic lift over eastern faces of hilly terrain will be favored for the heaviest rainfall. Embedded convection not out of the question late Monday/Mon eve ahead of approaching closed low and with warm conveyor belt feeding into the region. Based on ensemble/operational output, expect rainfall of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. Models still indicated low-level CAD under an H7-8 warm nose late tonight through Monday afternoon over the region. Based on strong dynamics and a deep enough cold layer well NW of NYC Mon, should see a prolonged mix of sleet and rain well NW of NYC through the day on Mon mainly across Orange/Putnam/W Passaic, where up to an inch of accumulating sleet is possible, with lower amounts across interior SW CT along/north of I-84. Winds and heavy precip should fall off later Mon Night from wet- east as the LLJ moves NE...but how quickly is still in question. The slow moving storm will pass on Tuesday. With the associated upper level low remaining over the region, will continue to mention likely/cat PoP mainly in the morning. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It appears that the Tropical Tidbits snow maps remain unfixed. They are currently showing spurious appreciable to even significant snowfall in areas that will see little or no accumulating snow as per the soundings. In southern NJ, there will very likely be no snow or sleet, but the maps are showing around 5" snow and sleet. Caution is advised when looking at the NAM solution. The NAM is not as cold or snowy as the snow product suggests. The ptype/sounding profile I posted a few min ago is a much better portrayal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Coastal flooding might hit major levels at the most vulnerable spots: .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A strong coastal storm will impact 2 successive high tide cycles of at least minor coastal flooding. The first tide cycle to be impacted is late tonight into early Monday morning. Minor coastal flooding is expected in spots as astronomical tides run a little higher than the late afternoon/evening tides. East/northeast winds are increasing during this time, but will not be quite at their peak. Expect the lower NY Harbor areas to experience minor coastal flooding, along with the South Shore and eastern bays of Long Island, and western Long Island Sound. Then, attention turns toward the next high tide cycle late Monday afternoon/evening. Potential for moderate coastal flooding for southern and eastern bays and beachfront communities of LI with this Monday evening high tide, and widespread minor coastal flooding elsewhere. The moderate coastal flood potential will increase if the slower coastal low movement (stronger E/NE winds Mon evening) comes to fruition...with even a low potential for major flood thresholds to be reached in the most vulnerable communities such as Lindenhurst and Freeport. A coastal flood watch has been issued to address this moderate flood threat. Minor coastal flooding could linger for the southern and eastern bay areas for the Tuesday morning high tide cycle as well. An ensemble of guidances is showing potential for surge to build to 2 to 3 ft Mon am...and 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 ft by Monday evening. The highest threat for coastal impacts will be for flood prone locales along the south shore bays of LI/NYC...eastern bays of LI...lower NY/NJ harbor including tidally affected rivers...and western LI Sound. The other concern will be for widespread dune erosion and localized washovers at Atlantic ocean beaches from elevated waters levels and an east to west sweep of 8 to 12 ft surf Mon into Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Tidbits maps are flawed. Meteocentre Nam sleet map has nothing anywhere near the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The ptype/sounding profile I posted a few min ago is a much better portrayal Your area could get some snow. The attached map overdoes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Your area could get some snow. The attached map overdoes it. I'm not quite sure I see snow per say.. heavy sleet with some flakes mixed... but someone up in this area could very potential hit isothermic and turn over for some heavy snowfall.. most likely north or west of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm not quite sure I see snow per say.. heavy sleet with some flakes mixed... but someone up in this area could very potential hit isothermic and turn over for some heavy snowfall.. most likely north or west of me Sleet will account for most of your frozen precipitation. Even as some snow may fall at the height of the storm and just before it departs, I don't think it will accumulate much if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Sleet will account for most of your frozen precipitation. Even as some snow may fall at the height of the storm and just before it departs, I don't think it will accumulate much if at all. Agreed, I think north 84 could be in store for a rare sleetstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 RGEM stays similar to NAM, interior sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Gfs coming colder for Northeast Pa and Nw jersey. Dynamic cooling ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 11 hours ago, Rjay said: I would love if Forky could talk a little about the wind potential. Any inversions to prevent some of the stronger winds from mixing down? If so, can we mix down some of the winds below 900 mb? Bump for anyone who can answer this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Dynamics help northeast Pa flip to paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 You would think reading this thread that the only thing that matters with the upcoming storm is how much frozen the interior Northeast receives. I guess it's tough to get people interested in a high wind, heavy rain, and coastal flooding event outside of hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: You would think reading this thread that the only thing that matters with the upcoming storm is how much frozen the interior Northeast receives. I guess it's tough to get people interested in a high wind, heavy rain, and coastal flooding event outside of hurricane season. Hi. Give me all the weather - Honestly, it's an ominous event. I hope folks along the coast are taking this seriously & that everyone is prepared for at least some power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: You would think reading this thread that the only thing that matters with the upcoming storm is how much frozen the interior Northeast receives. I guess it's tough to get people interested in a high wind, heavy rain, and coastal flooding event outside of hurricane season. Surprised more Long Island posters arent actively discussing this... could be extreme for areas like Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: Bump for anyone who can answer this. the models are showing 50-60 kts right below the inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: You would think reading this thread that the only thing that matters with the upcoming storm is how much frozen the interior Northeast receives. I guess it's tough to get people interested in a high wind, heavy rain, and coastal flooding event outside of hurricane season. Probably it's because we can get high wind, heavy rain and coastal flooding outside of winter, everyone wants frozen precip in winter for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I feel like commuting on the LIRR to the city tomorrow is going to be a nightmare and I should work from home. But nobody in the real world pays attention a "high wind warning". If we had tropical storm warnings up the collective media would be losing its mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, ag3 said: Tidbits maps are flawed. Meteocentre Nam sleet map has nothing anywhere near the coast: You have to go about 50 miles+ NW of the city to see any sleet. Everyone else is all rain for the entire event, start to finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Probably it's because we can get high wind, heavy rain and coastal flooding outside of winter, everyone wants frozen precip in winter for the most part. this looks like the most impressive easterly wind event since sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: You would think reading this thread that the only thing that matters with the upcoming storm is how much frozen the interior Northeast receives. I guess it's tough to get people interested in a high wind, heavy rain, and coastal flooding event outside of hurricane season. Been getting at this for days. Thanks 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the models are showing 50-60 kts right below the inversion Appreciate the input Forky. I basically saw the same thing but wasn't sure enough to post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Surprised at no flood watches for the NYC area? I know it's been dry recently but there's potential for some pretty heavy rain plus the risk for coastal areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: You would think reading this thread that the only thing that matters with the upcoming storm is how much frozen the interior Northeast receives. I guess it's tough to get people interested in a high wind, heavy rain, and coastal flooding event outside of hurricane season. I love all extreme weather and am looking forward to this storm...just been so damn busy haven't posted much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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