nzucker Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 28 minutes ago, snywx said: Just checked the NAM sounding for MGJ.. Warm layer is above 825mb during the height and @ hr 48 the warm layer is extremely shallow ( between 750-775) w/ temps just above 0c in this layer. This is a winter weather event up here plain and simple btw- surface temps are 32-33 during this same period. Yup the new GFS soundings for SWF and POU looked colder. Seems like an isothermal sounding between 700mb and 900mb. 950mb temps are close to 1C though so the surface may be slightly above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 well atleast we know that it has indeed trended a bit colder,only thing is that funky movement due north once it hits the coast on the gfs. but the trend is starting to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, mikemost said: Agreed... Out of my area of knowledge here - But looking at some of the soundings, there is definitely stability below 850mb. That being said, the trowel signature seems to be pronounced, and the intensity of the precipitation could mix down some of those 850mb winds, but to what extent? So I'd also love to hear a meteorologist perspective on how they think what happens at the surface. The colder surface means to me that less of the really strong wind mixes down, but maybe this could be another situation where winds on the coast are much stronger than not far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Rjay said: I would love if Forky could talk a little about the wind potential. Any inversions to prevent some of the stronger winds from mixing down? If so, can we mix down some of the winds below 900 mb? He's a very selective but i'm sure he will post . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 39 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: well atleast we know that it has indeed trended a bit colder,only thing is that funky movement due north once it hits the coast on the gfs. but the trend is starting to show. Should be a wide variety with precip for the city and coast; light, moderate and heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Should be a wide variety with precip for the city and coast; light, moderate and heavy rain i hear that. nothing better then varying rates of cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 One of the surge models http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ESTOFS&area=NE&plot=srg&loop=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, Rjay said: One of the surge models http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ESTOFS&area=NE&plot=srg&loop=1 Sharing the love with the north shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: One of the surge models http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ESTOFS&area=NE&plot=srg&loop=1 This will be a pretty useful tool if we ever get a cane to come through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 high wind gusts of 60-65 mph with an easterly jet 5-6 std above climo and peaking around 70-75 kt at 925 hpa That is like 82mph? tttttt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Thundersnow dynamics starting to look more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 hours ago, Bacon Strips said: Thundersnow dynamics starting to look more likely. Sleet is more likely for the coast than snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Sleet is more likely for the coast than snow I think strips is in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Morning afd from mt holly nws = they are now concerned for the interior for a wintry event. Snow is now being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, Animal said: Morning afd from mt holly nws = they are now concerned for the interior for a wintry event. Snow is now being discussed. Binghamton is now going with 3-4 inches of snow and locally higher amounts possible for my area in the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 RGEM Trended cooler as well, with some snow now north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Winds forecasted to be 30-40mph with gusts to 70 per nws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Im Expecting Albany to issue WWA atleast this afternoon for up here. snippet from Albany AFD Ageostrophic wind component will become northerly and aide in pushing low level cold air southward into our area tonight. Precip types will largely depend on precip rates and likely snow during times of moderate to heavy precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I believe this is the first January high risk day during the 2000's so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I believe this is the first January high risk day during the 2000's so far. It's a relatively dynamic setup. Some of the airports today in Florida may have to close due to crosswinds today because there are extremely strong due south winds ahead of the front. It's almost unheard of to see significant crosswinds in CNTRL to SRN FL airports outside of tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It's a relatively dynamic setup. Some of the airports today in Florida may have to close due to crosswinds today because there are extremely strong due south winds ahead of the front. It's almost unheard of to see significant crosswinds in CNTRL to SRN FL airports outside of tropical systems. The SST warmth for January is off the charts to go along with those dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Nam holds to its guns with an absolutely wicked winter sleet/snow storm and pounding coastal event... gonna get some great sat images tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Nam continues to be the coldest model.Not backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam continues to be the coldest model.Not backing down. With those soundings north of rockland would actually see very little rain.. and mostly sleet/fzr, especially hi res nam edit: just checked ptype and it's about .25-.40 rain north of 84 stays almost entirely frozen on Nam till tail end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Surface 0c lingers around 84... as is tradition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Nam Para also has sleet all the way to thw coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam holds to its guns with an absolutely wicked winter sleet/snow storm and pounding coastal event... gonna get some great sat images tomorrow Trying to get a handle on this thing for an appointment I'm about to cancel tomorrow in Syosett. How much support does the NAM have, if any, from the other short trem models, especially this mornings runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Trying to get a handle on this thing for an appointment I'm about to cancel tomorrow in Syosett. How much support does the NAM have, if any, from the other short trem models, especially this mornings runs? Well the only other model that's a meso worth looking at is RGEM, which looks similar to Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Well the only other model that's a meso worth looking at is RGEM, which looks similar to Nam Thanks, that helps. I'm switching my appointment to Wednesday. A 160 mile round trip from Orange county to LI seems like the last thing I should be doing tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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