Allsnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 3-6" of sleet would be potentially extremely dangerous with high wind... however I would still agree the coast is the bigger story potentially Nothing is showing this. How do you get 3 inches of sleet from 1.00 of qpf? It's more like 1-2 of sleet at best. The nam always has way to much qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nothing is showing this. How do you get 3 inches of sleet from 1.00 of qpf? It's more like 1-2 of sleet at best. The nam always has way to much qpf I've always thought the average sleet to liquid ratio was about 2-3/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nothing is showing this. How do you get 3 inches of sleet from 1.00 of qpf? It's more like 1-2 of sleet at best. The nam always has way to much qpf People are really exaggerating. The storm is 90% rain for everyone...this has nothing in common with Feb 2007 or Mar 2007 despite many people mentioning them. Surface temps were in the teens and low 20s for those storms; the whole column was MUCH colder. Sleet will have a hard time being formed in this storm due to the depth of the warm layer, and the surface is marginal for accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: I've always thought the average sleet to liquid ratio was about 2-3/1 Even at 2-3 ratio the nam always over does qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, nzucker said: People are really exaggerating. The storm is 90% rain for everyone...this has nothing in common with Feb 2007 or Mar 2007 despite many people mentioning them. Surface temps were in the teens and low 20s for those storms; the whole column was MUCH colder. Sleet will have a hard time being formed in this storm due to the depth of the warm layer, and the surface is marginal for accumulations. I really can't disagree with this at all. We had cold high pressure locked in for all those storms. This airmass is equivalent to late march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Even at 2-3 ratio the nam always over does qpf It's not only that. It's overdoing the frozen precip as well IMO. You have a really strong easterly flow and a pretty large warm nose. If you couple that with surface temps that are at the freezing point or just above, I don't see this being a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 39 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nothing is showing this. How do you get 3 inches of sleet from 1.00 of qpf? It's more like 1-2 of sleet at best. The nam always has way to much qpf I was analyzing the 3knam specifically.. which is 2" of LE sleet NOT 1" for a decent chunk of LHV..... Sleet is NOT 1:1 otherwise it would be rain... it's 2 or 3:1 ratio... making 2" of LE 4-6" of sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 51 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nothing is showing this. How do you get 3 inches of sleet from 1.00 of qpf? It's more like 1-2 of sleet at best. The nam always has way to much qpf Nothing is showing this?.... nobody's predicting the nams correct, certainly not me, just discussing what it shows... I don't get how simple discussion always turns such harsh criticism towards posters... I DID NOT MAKE THE NAM, just discussing it... same way I'll discuss the models that show mostly all rain... it's what we do on here correct? Also asking how someone gets 3" and then saying it's more like 1-2" is fairly petty don't you think? Lol... but I'll play along Sorry if you don't like what it shows... but the nam run I was referring to does indeed show 3-6" of sleet across a large portion of LHV... despite its validity im also 1000% certain if any model were printing out 2" of pure sleet for your area or NYC it would have no issue being the topic of discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 For a comparison the operational 4k is far less frozen precip and most likely on the more realistic side, however I think it's under done in terms of rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 25 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nothing is showing this?.... nobody's predicting the nams correct, certainly not me, just discussing what it shows... I don't get how simple discussion always turns such harsh criticism towards posters... I DID NOT MAKE THE NAM, just discussing it... same way I'll discuss the models that show mostly all rain... it's what we do on here correct? Also asking how someone gets 3" and then saying it's more like 1-2" is fairly petty don't you think? Lol... but I'll play along Sorry if you don't like what it shows... but the nam run I was referring to does indeed show 3-6" of sleet across a large portion of LHV... despite its validity im also 1000% certain if any model were printing out 2" of pure sleet for your area or NYC it would have no issue being the topic of discussion When the NAM is all alone, it never merits much discussion. Additionally, you CANNOT just rip and read from models to make a forecast. You have to look at the overall set-up. This storm has a weak high moving well east of Maine (not to the north as in classic storms), 700-800mb is torched, and the surface low is over West Virginia. How many significant winter events has the metro had w an SLP over West Virginia? How about with an SLP in that location and surface temps near 40F? The correct answer is none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, nzucker said: When the NAM is all alone, it never merits much discussion. Additionally, you CANNOT just rip and read from models to make a forecast. You have to look at the overall set-up. This storm has a weak high moving well east of Maine (not to the north as in classic storms), 700-800mb is torched, and the surface low is over West Virginia. How many significant winter events has the metro had w an SLP over West Virginia? How about with an SLP in that location and surface temps near 40F? The correct answer is none. I've never once said the metro area had a shot at wintery precip... ever... lol... a warm tongue at 700-800, while 850 and up to 700/ are all below 0.. Is sleet.. which is what the nam discussion was about... again... NOT A FORCAST... a discussion... and if I recall... I believe the NYC blizzard last year was the nam leading the pack from hr 84... all alone... should it not have received some merit? Just countering your talking points... I DO NOT think the nams correct... only discussing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 0z NAM to my eyes looks like anther sleet run for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Animal said: 0z NAM to my eyes looks like anther sleet run for the interior. Nams actually cooler than 18z run, especially at 850 some areas north of 84 flip to regular snow, the 700-800 warm tongue is east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Nam gives areas north of 84, and west of 87 a shot at snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nams actually cooler than 18z run, especially at 850 some areas north of 84 flip to regular snow, the 700-800 warm tongue is east Looks quite nice imop. Better than plain rain I guess. Sleet line looks to creep down to the rt 78 area west of the parkway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4k Nam really pushes the 700mb warm layer up the river valley... probably more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I think to much emphasis is being put on the frozen aspect and not enough on the wind and coastal flooding aspect which could be a huge story with this.. Heavy rain will also be an issue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Poconos get a good amount of snow on Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 NCEP still shows after the storm makes the pass, another round of precip swings through hour 54-62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Rtd208 said: I think to much emphasis is being put on the frozen aspect and not enough on the wind and coastal flooding aspect which could be a huge story with this.. Heavy rain will also be an issue as well. I agree... but there aren't any posters from NYC or Long Island really discussing anything about it... I'm more concerned with possibility of frozen obviously hence my centered discussions, if someone would like to talk about the coastal impacts that's fine too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'm starting worry about Freeport and Linderhust. This is from Upton's adf. A strong coastal storm will likely cause 2 successive high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding Sunday Night into Monday Night...with potential for moderate coastal flooding for southern and eastern bay and beachfront communities of LI with the Monday evening high tide. The moderate coastal flood potential will increase if the slower coastal low movement (stronger ene winds Mon eve) comes to fruition...with even a low potential for major flood thresholds to be reached in the most vulnerable communities such as Lindenhurst and Freeport. A coastal flood watch has been issued to address this moderate flood threat. Minor coastal flooding could linger for the southern and eastern bay areas for the Tuesday morning high tide cycle as well. An ensemble of guidances is showing potential for surge to build to 2 to 3 ft Mon am...and 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 ft by Monday evening. The highest threat for coastal impacts will be for flood prone locales along the south shore bays of LI/NYC...eastern bays of LI...lower NY/NJ harbor including tidally affected rivers...and western Li Sound. The other concern will be for widespread dune erosion and localized washovers at Atlantic ocean beaches from elevated waters levels and an east to west sweep of 8 to 12 ft surf Mon into Tue. Low potential but there's a chance. A major flood would do significant damage to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 total storm qpf. little nugget over west chester county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, Animal said: total storm qpf. little nugget over west chester county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Def got colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 new NAM is very close to a stall Like I mentioned this afternoon. If it's already showing it being 'that' close, it should be expected to happen. Models have historically been slow to catch up to stalls. slower and colder will continue to be the trend, eventually it may not even get as far north as currently projected. The CAD is most likely still being under-forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, nzucker said: When the NAM is all alone, it never merits much discussion. Additionally, you CANNOT just rip and read from models to make a forecast. You have to look at the overall set-up. This storm has a weak high moving well east of Maine (not to the north as in classic storms), 700-800mb is torched, and the surface low is over West Virginia. How many significant winter events has the metro had w an SLP over West Virginia? How about with an SLP in that location and surface temps near 40F? The correct answer is none. It is? Take a peek at the 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Man... hard to ignore RGEM/NAM showing identical solutions....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Classic sleet sig on RGEM, 850s are below 0 well south of Orange County, with a 700-800 warm tongue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Bulk of precip is just rolling in and RGEM already has close to .50" LE of sleet, mesos also seem to push heavy bulk of precip to Monday Late evening into overnight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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