Paragon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm assuming that 21" spot is bear mountain How's High Point, NJ looking for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm assuming that 21" spot is bear mountain Looks like the Harriman Jackpot to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 Upton pulls the trigger on Coastal Flood Watches but surprisingly not for most of the north shore. And like I was thinking, widespread moderate coastal flooding and high winds. NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHERN NASSAU- COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES. * TIDAL DEPARTURES...3 1/2 TO 4 1/2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. * TIMING...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM. * BEACH EROSION IMPACTS...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN COMBINATION WITH 8 TO 12 FT SURF ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD DUNE EROSION AND LOCALIZED OVERWASHES ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHFRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. * TIDAL IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR ADJACENT PROPERTIES DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE AND/OR WAVE ACTION. NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES MAY BE NEEDED. ISOLATED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, xram said: Looks like the Harriman Jackpot to me. Wouldn't pay attention to the map per say but more of the dynamics it's displaying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 28 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wouldn't pay attention to the map per say but more of the dynamics it's displaying we all know what happens when dynamics come in to play. the coldest air will rush down from the 500 and 700 mb levels,cooling the 850's in turn cooling the surface. explains why there is so much sleet even in n.y.c itself. if this can correct itself to the east by about 50 to 75 miles then were really in the game for a ice fest even here in the city. the flow won't be screaming off the ocean either effectively shutting off the torch with a nne flow. interesting to track a diff looking type of system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: we all know what happens when dynamics come in to play. the coldest air will rush down from the 500 and 700 mb levels,cooling the 850's in turn cooling the surface. explains why there is so much sleet even in n.y.c itself. if this can correct itself to the east by about 50 to 75 miles then were really in the game for a ice fest even here in the city. the flow won't be screaming off the ocean either effectively shutting off the torch. interesting to track a diff looking type of system though. If this corrects 50-75 miles east it's still rain. There's so much talk about sleet when the high winds and coastal flooding are the big stories. Like Bluewave said the coast really lucked out as this could have been so much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 If the winds are east for much of MON not good E winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft...building to 16 to 21 We'll see how the new jettys work in point lookout tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 yeah i agree guys,the story will be the wind buffeting the coastline and drenching cold rain. my least favorite type of weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, xram said: Looks like the Harriman Jackpot to me. I will share my icy balls with all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: I noticed a pretty steep dropoff in the tree damage north of the Southern State from that storm. The really strong winds were pretty localized to the shore areas, where they were able to mix down. Outside of there it was a fairly pedestrian event, I remember it being very rainy, like 3-4" of rain which worsened the tree/power line damage too. In Long Beach it was ferocious for several hours, we easily had 70-75 mph+ gusts and many trees down with property damage all over. A section of town had no power for a week. We were very fortunate it didn't coincide with high tides. I lived in Jamaica at that time, about a mile north of JFK. I couldn't walk down the street at one point during the height of the storm. Trees weren't only uprooted, many were literally blown into pieces, like they were hit with a grenade. I'd never seen such destruction prior to that storm. The damage wasn't nearly as bad further north near my school in Flushing, but many of those trees were obliterated the following year during that macroburst/tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Rjay said: If this corrects 50-75 miles east it's still rain. There's so much talk about sleet when the high winds and coastal flooding are the big stories. Like Bluewave said the coast really lucked out as this could have been so much worse. Do you have any idea how a few inches of sleet can shut down everything from the Bronx and Orange Cty and north? We actually have these things called hills and stuff up here and they become 100% impassable after 1/2" of the stuff. There are several million people that will be affected through the LHV if we get a few inches of sleet. All of us have overhead power lines and many of us depend on electricity for things like heat (I use oil but have fan forced hot air) and for our well pumps to run. It sucks when you're cold and can't even take a dump or leave home to do it somewhere else. 32 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: I will share my icy balls with all. No pics please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, gravitylover said: Do you have any idea how a few inches of sleet can shut down everything from the Bronx and Orange Cty and north? We actually have these things called hills and stuff up here and they become 100% impassable after 1/2" of the stuff. There are several million people that will be affected through the LHV if we get a few inches of sleet. All of us have overhead power lines and many of us depend on electricity for things like heat (I use oil but have fan forced hot air) and for our well pumps to run. It sucks when you're cold and can't even take a dump or leave home to do it somewhere else. No pics please. I never said it was no big deal for NW posters. I just said it wasnt the biggest story with this storm. Are you talking about sleet affecting your power or the wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Insane sleet storm on 3k Nam most of the interior area is 1.25"+ LE of Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Sleet and the accompanying frzr that's inevitable bringing down power lines and causing people, that shouldn't be out driving, to drive into power line poles. I live towards the top of a hill on a general ESE aspect so we do see a fair amount of wind in storms like this doubling down on the potential catastrophe. 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I never said it was no big deal for NW posters. I just said it wasnt the biggest story with this storm. Are you talking about sleet affecting your power or the wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Insane sleet storm on 3k Nam most of the interior area is 1.25"+ LE of Sleet Is it showing sleet from the start of the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, Rjay said: I never said it was no big deal for NW posters. I just said it wasnt the biggest story with this storm. Are you talking about sleet affecting your power or the wind? 3-6" of sleet would be potentially extremely dangerous with high wind... however I would still agree the coast is the bigger story potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, Animal said: Is it showing sleet from the start of the event? For some reason my ptype acc map is taking forever to load.. I'll post what I have so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3k Nam has some spots over 2" of pure sleet.... with very little rain north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 When was the last storm to drop 1-2" of sleet in this area, let alone 3-6. Nothing to worry about yet, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, ForestHillWx said: When was the last storm to drop 1-2" of sleet in this area, let alone 3-6. Nothing to worry about yet, imho. This is no ordinary run of the mill nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 This would be an absolute nightmare for the Hudson valley if it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Sleet and the accompanying frzr that's inevitable bringing down power lines and causing people, that shouldn't be out driving, to drive into power line poles. I live towards the top of a hill on a general ESE aspect so we do see a fair amount of wind in storms like this doubling down on the potential catastrophe. I don't think freezing rain will be much of a factor with this storm though the NAM says I'm wrong. Temps should hover around or above freezing which should hopefully somewhat minimize the dangerous travel conditions during the storm. I still wouldn't want to be traveling in a driving rain/sleet storm with up to 50 mph winds. Conditions in your area will def be nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Understood, but the cold pool modeled is anchored by a hp too far north east to lock out the warm push that is going to come. The flow off the ocean won't help and the moisture transport should keep the temps above the threshold needed for frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, ForestHillWx said: Understood, but the cold pool modeled is anchored by a hp too far north east to lock out the warm push that is going to come. The flow off the ocean won't help and the moisture transport should keep the temps above the threshold needed for frozen precip. Yep. I think the majority of the precip is rain for everyone but I wouldn't rule out sleet for some of our NW posters. The NAM says I'm dead wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 You see that frzr panel that Ulster just posted? That has .1 right over my house and .25 less than 10 miles away. My elevation should make up for that 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Again Nam is the only model this bullish with the cold, of RGEM shows it tonight and tomorrow I'll be really interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 40 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: When was the last storm to drop 1-2" of sleet in this area, let alone 3-6. Nothing to worry about yet, imho. The 93 super storm is the only one I remember. I lived in New Windsor at the time and we had 18 inches of snow followed by a solid 3-4 inches of sleet. No snow blower at the time so shoveling was unbelievably heavy. Removing the top layer of sleet was worse than the 18 inches of snow underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The big story with this will be the heavy rain, coastal flooding and high winds. This will be the best event this winter by far even though there won't be much frozen unless the NAM is right for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: The 93 super storm is the only one I remember. I lived in New Windsor at the time and we had 18 inches of snow followed by a solid 3-4 inches of sleet. No snow blower at the time so shoveling was unbelievably heavy. Removing the top layer of sleet was worse than the 18 inches of snow underneath. We had 2 mostly sleet events in 2007. The VD storm and then one in March with 5" of sleet. I believe to the north they were good snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: We had 2 mostly sleet events in 2007. The VD storm and then one in March with 5" of sleet. I believe to the north they were good snowstorms I was living around 20 miles north of Philly for that event Got around 5 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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