Dan76 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 East wind now not NE more erosion now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 17 minutes ago, Dan76 said: East wind now not NE more erosion now For sure, this is going to be the highest impact coastal event (erosion wise) since Sandy and probably the strongest wind event since then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 parts of the south under Mod risk for severe now. ouch and rare for Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Isn't an east wind worse than either a NE or a SE wind? Since all our coasts face the east, there will be a more widespread impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 hours ago, ag3 said: Rain most of the time with sleet in the heaviest bands. Isn't that somewhat like Dec 1992? We had mostly rain with temps in the upper 30s with just a bit of sleet mixed in when the precip got heavy. Then some light snows at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: Isn't an east wind worse than either a NE or a SE wind? Since all our coasts face the east, there will be a more widespread impact. E & SE are almost the same both are worse for the s shore than NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 hours ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: and why exactly would that be ridiculous??..you do know weather can be unpredictable at times. it's a funky setup really,but it's not too far away from being a wet snow/sleet maker for everyone,even at the coast. It's not even close to a snow setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: For sure, this is going to be the highest impact coastal event (erosion wise) since Sandy and probably the strongest wind event since then too I've been worried about this for many days now. This is prob going to be the highest impact event for the coast since Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 NAM stronger and further south at 36. even more intense with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: We got lucky that this is happening near the lowest astronomical tides of the month in addition to the lowest daily high tide cycle. How is this going to be windwise compared to March 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Sustained winds on the NAM are wicked. 40-50MPH as far inland as NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Definitely colder and deeper run. 850's are even down to CNJ. this run would be really bad for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: Definitely colder and deeper run. 850's are even down to CNJ. this run would be really bad for my area. yea..it will be interesting to see how you make out. I expect to get a a decent amount of rain and sleet at times on my street. Possible snow at the end as the storm pulls away. (thanks Mt Holly NWS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Sleetfest for interior again on Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Winds still look ENE to me for the area on the NAM/GFS, so the highest flood threat will be on the north shore. The back bays on the south shore will still flood, but it should be minor to moderate IMO. The lunar tide cycle should also help to stop major flooding. The worst of the wind looks to be during the day Monday, it should drop off after dark. The beach erosion and wind damage look to me to be the biggest story. The beaches will take a big pounding and we should have gusts over 60 mph near the coast. That will cause some power outages for sure. I'm not too worried about trees where I am given how many were knocked out already by the 2010-2012 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 22 minutes ago, Paragon said: How is this going to be windwise compared to March 2010? Overall pretty similar. Except for a swath of the south shore of nassua that saw enhanced winds with 2010 and saw hurricane fource gusts. JFK gusted to 78 with that. I'm thinking wide spread gusts into the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, Animal said: yea..it will be interesting to see how you make out. I expect to get a a decent amount of rain and sleet at times on my street. Possible snow at the end as the storm pulls away. (thanks Mt Holly NWS) you'll def be snowier than that. with it's very slow movement as it crawls north, we'll have to start worrying about it possibly stalling out. btw, look at this line guys. practically unseen in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3k Nam drops nearly 1.7" LE of pure sleet in some spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Overall pretty similar. Except for a swath of the south shore of nassua that saw enhanced winds with 2010 and saw hurricane fource gusts. JFK gusted to 78 with that. I'm thinking wide spread gusts into the 60s Yes we had gusts over 70 here and saw lots of power outages and electric sparklers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 3k Nam drops nearly 1.7" LE of pure sleet in some spots... slim radar show some good precip moving through on Tuesday. This may be the snow shot for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Yes I know this isn't snow, but for a model that counts sleet as snow, and a 21" printout in Orange County is saying something about the dynamic of this storm.. I'll post the ptype accumulation map when it comes out showing how much of what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 total qpf from ncep 18 z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yes we had gusts over 70 here and saw lots of power outages and electric sparklers. We did? In Malverne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yes I know this isn't snow, but for a model that counts sleet as snow, and a 21" printout in Orange County is saying something about the dynamic of this storm.. I'll post the ptype accumulation map when it comes out showing how much of what Also noted over the Highland Lakes/West Milford area in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 the stall-out scenario is very real. Models almost always push too progressive, this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, sferic said: We did? In Malverne? I noticed a pretty steep dropoff in the tree damage north of the Southern State from that storm. The really strong winds were pretty localized to the shore areas, where they were able to mix down. Outside of there it was a fairly pedestrian event, I remember it being very rainy, like 3-4" of rain which worsened the tree/power line damage too. In Long Beach it was ferocious for several hours, we easily had 70-75 mph+ gusts and many trees down with property damage all over. A section of town had no power for a week. We were very fortunate it didn't coincide with high tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, Animal said: Also noted over the Highland Lakes/West Milford area in NJ I'm assuming that 21" spot is bear mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Albany seems sold on Nam solution 3-6" of snow with 8" in higher elevations as per their AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 23 minutes ago, sferic said: We did? In Malverne? Yep, I remember it well. The north shore didn't have the same kind of gusts, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I noticed a pretty steep dropoff in the tree damage north of the Southern State from that storm. The really strong winds were pretty localized to the shore areas, where they were able to mix down. Outside of there it was a fairly pedestrian event, I remember it being very rainy, like 3-4" of rain which worsened the tree/power line damage too. In Long Beach it was ferocious for several hours, we easily had 70-75 mph+ gusts and many trees down with property damage all over. A section of town had no power for a week. We were very fortunate it didn't coincide with high tides. Yeah I'm south of the Southern State but just north of Sunrise Highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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