UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 GFS colder interior again... NEPA dumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 It's amazing how consistent the models have been for days showing a max of 2-3" of rain bullseyed over our immediate region. Other than an occasional drier run mixed in, the concencus remains unchanged. We now have a flood watch here for up to 4" of rain. I cannot remember ever seeing so much consistency since Irene. 18Z GFS continues this theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The big difference between this and March 2010 is we have had Sandy since to cleanup any weak trees. It's going to be intense and there will be outages but no where near that level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 10:04 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The big difference between this and March 2010 is we have had Sandy since to cleanup any weak trees. It's going to be intense and there will be outages but no where near that level Expand Sandy was over 4 years ago already and the recent prolonged drought probably weakened a lot of trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 9:52 PM, NJwx85 said: It's amazing how consistent the models have been for days showing a max of 2-3" of rain bullseyed over our immediate region. Other than an occasional drier run mixed in, the concencus remains unchanged. We now have a flood watch here for up to 4" of rain. I cannot remember ever seeing so much consistency since Irene. 18Z GFS continues this theme. Expand Storms of this origin always overperform and in winter we've always seen this. Wouldn't shock me if some areas near the coast pick up 5 or 6 inches of rain. Wind potential concerns me even away from the coast. Still a lot of trees in places that survived Sandy or Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 9:52 PM, NJwx85 said: It's amazing how consistent the models have been for days showing a max of 2-3" of rain bullseyed over our immediate region. Other than an occasional drier run mixed in, the concencus remains unchanged. We now have a flood watch here for up to 4" of rain. I cannot remember ever seeing so much consistency since Irene. 18Z GFS continues this theme. Expand NE NJ, the city and SE NY, including my area (Rockland) look good for up to 4 inches of rain over 24 hours. Even though it's been very dry and no snowmelt to deal with, that is going to cause some good flooding and almost certainly uproot trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 10:11 PM, NJwx85 said: Sandy was over 4 years ago already and the recent prolonged drought probably weakened a lot of trees. Expand Between March 2010, Irene, Sandy and the reaction after Sandy there are hardly any trees left on a good portion of the south shore of the island where the worst winds should be. There are areas of complete blowdown in the preserve near my house. So i doubt there is much tree damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 10:18 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Between March 2010, Irene, Sandy and the reaction after Sandy there are hardly any trees left on a good portion of the south shore of the island where the worst winds should be. There are areas of complete blowdown in the preserve near my house. So i doubt there is much tree damage Expand Up here in rural Northern NJ we have tons of trees that are over a hundred years old, including tall Oaks and Maples. We've more or less been in a drought since last Winter and I'm sure that has damaged or weakened some of them. During March 10' and Sandy we had extreme winds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 10:18 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Between March 2010, Irene, Sandy and the reaction after Sandy there are hardly any trees left on a good portion of the south shore of the island where the worst winds should be. There are areas of complete blowdown in the preserve near my house. So i doubt there is much tree damage Expand My concern is that in advance of the squall line that has consistently been shown on the NAM and GFS and during its onset, one could see the strongest winds. That's when the greatest risk of numerous trees being blown down will exist. Hopefully, that will be just after the evening rush hour and not during it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The Weather Channel I might take pictures over here in southern Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillycane Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Hi Guys, I don't post often and if this doesn't belong on the thread no hurt feelings mods if you delete it. I've been following the tornadoes down in FL associated with our mess tomorrow. I don't recall seeing such a pronounced tornado signature in central FL ever.. This storm is a an incredibly dynamic and dangerous situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 A couple possible tornadoes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 12:17 AM, Phillycane said: Hi Guys, I don't post often and if this doesn't belong on the thread no hurt feelings mods if you delete it. I've been following the tornadoes down in FL associated with our mess tomorrow. I don't recall seeing such a pronounced tornado signature in central FL ever.. This storm is a an incredibly dynamic and dangerous situation. Expand Yeah when the JAX office used language like this earlier this afternoon... you know they weren't messing around. "A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch is now in effect until 8 p.m. edt for most of north Florida and all of southeast Georgia. The severe weather event we are about to go through has the potential to be one of the most severe weather outbreaks since the 1993 Super Storm and possibly like the big tornado outbreak near the University of Alabama a few years ago. To emphasize how rare this is we have never had a Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch issued for our area before. You need to take this situation extremely seriously, like you would a potential hurricane." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/22/2017 at 9:40 PM, sferic said: Is this a type of storm that NYC's emergency management team should be keeping an eye on? Especially with the strong, strong winds. Expand NYC EM is well aware of the impending storm. They have been sending numerous updates via email throughout the day and in their notify ny system email http://www1.nyc.gov/site/em/about/press-releases/20170122_pr_nycem-advises-new-yorkers-to-prepare-for-coastal-storm.page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Starting to get some gusts in Melville (LI). It was just calm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Binghamton just put out a winter storm watch for Sullivan county for 5-10 inches of snow and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Winds gusting around 25 now. Just spent time securing an area of rotted out fence which faces east. If it comes down now the whole fence is coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Wave heights are increasing as the storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The 00z NAM is an absolute beast. Storm crawls up the coast. Looks like lots of sleet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 2:07 AM, NJwx85 said: The 00z NAM is an absolute beast. Storm crawls up the coast. Looks like lots of sleet too. Expand Man if only it was 10 degrees colder. This would rival last years storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 2:07 AM, NJwx85 said: The 00z NAM is an absolute beast. Storm crawls up the coast. Looks like lots of sleet too. Expand Haven't looked at layers just surface but it looked warmer up here to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 The typical spots, Freeport and Lindenhurst are expected to get major coastal flooding with the second high tide tomorrow. ...NASSAU COUNTY SOUTH SHORE BAY WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY EVENING... COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.......FLOOD..... LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.........CATEGORY.. ...................................(MLLW/NGVD)................. FREEPORT GAUGE NY....514 PM.....6.3-6.7/5.5-5.9......MOD-MAJ... POINT LOOKOUT NY.....417 PM.....6.7-7.2/5.6-6.1......MODERATE.. E ROCKAWAY NY........430 PM.....7.0-7.5/5.5-6.0......MODERATE.. ...SUFFOLK COUNTY SOUTH SHORE BAY WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY EVENING... COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.......FLOOD..... LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.........CATEGORY.. ...................................(MLLW/MHHW)................. LINDENHURST NY.......657 PM.....4.2-4.7/2.6-3.2......MOD-MAJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 2:08 AM, dmillz25 said: Man if only it was 10 degrees colder. This would rival last years storm Expand Yea quite a bummer to have a storm like this in January that produces rain for a good portion of the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 2:09 AM, Rjay said: The typical spots, Freeport and Lindenhurst are expected to get major coastal flooding with the second high tide tomorrow. ...NASSAU COUNTY SOUTH SHORE BAY WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY EVENING... COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.......FLOOD..... LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.........CATEGORY.. ...................................(MLLW/NGVD)................. FREEPORT GAUGE NY....514 PM.....6.3-6.7/5.5-5.9......MOD-MAJ... POINT LOOKOUT NY.....417 PM.....6.7-7.2/5.6-6.1......MODERATE.. E ROCKAWAY NY........430 PM.....7.0-7.5/5.5-6.0......MODERATE.. ...SUFFOLK COUNTY SOUTH SHORE BAY WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY EVENING... COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.......FLOOD..... LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.........CATEGORY.. ...................................(MLLW/MHHW)................. LINDENHURST NY.......657 PM.....4.2-4.7/2.6-3.2......MOD-MAJ Expand On Friday told my co worker to expect 4 foot water rise in Freeport. Looks like I may have been too bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Low position looks different on the 3km nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 2:10 AM, ILoveWinter said: Yea quite a bummer to have a storm like this in January that produces rain for a good portion of the sub forum. Expand This is what I would've expected last winter with the strong el nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 2:08 AM, dmillz25 said: Man if only it was 10 degrees colder. This would rival last years storm Expand On 1/23/2017 at 2:09 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Haven't looked at layers just surface but it looked warmer up here to me... Expand By beast I meant rain and wind. Don't care much about sleet or a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 On 1/23/2017 at 2:22 AM, NJwx85 said: By beast I meant rain and wind. Don't care much about sleet or a few flakes. Expand Happy that you getting your storm of choice. This storm will be a doozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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