Rjay Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I usually wouldn't start a thread for a day 5/6 storm but it's been pretty well modeled for days. This storm has the potential to bring heavy rains, strong winds and significant coastal flooding to the members of this subforum. There's even a chance inland areas could see some snow. This storm should have an awesome moisture fetch and could feature record pwat's for this time of the year. If you live in coastal areas I'd pay close attention to this one. There's lots to still be worked out, so discuss away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 new moon on the 27th so tides will be high to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Chance for significant snow out of this one? Neutral/Neg NAO, good low placement, Max climatology period, plenty of moisture, and slow mover....just very marginal cold/cool air is mitigating factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Euros a real soaker with some mountain/NE snow 2+" rain for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 40-50mph Gusts per euro for much of NYC metro, Long Island and jersey shoreline, coupled with 2-3" of rain and sustained 20-30mph winds.. gonna be a doozy temps are in upper 40s low 50s btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 40mph sustained winds just off jersey shore, anyone on coastal jersey should really be ready for this, winds/tide/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 If you're a mountain weenie like myself, you can cling to a few members pushing the colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: If you're a mountain weenie like myself, you can cling to a few members pushing the colder solution E8 please looks like there is some potential for alittle white gold for those away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, snywx said: E8 please No matter what this is a rinse away snowfall if it turns into that, unless the GGEM is correct of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 EPS has an decent amount of members showing heavy interior snowfall, actually surprising at the amount showing Warning snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: EPS has an overwhelming amount of members showing heavy interior snowfall, actually surprising at the amount showing Warning snowfall Still a glimmer of hope for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Still a glimmer of hope for us. A lot of spread and uncertainty on ensembles Low locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I think this trends colder, it's going to really redevelop off the coast of cape hatteras because systems like these can make its own cold air. They tend to almost stall off the cape hatteras and really develop into huge storms...like many of the models depict it. It already trended colder on most of the models and if you think about it it's been a bit colder than modeled lately so let's see if that trend continues. Also we need that high to move in southwest a bit faster cause there is cold air now with that high just need it about 12-24 hours earlier. Not to mention it's January and a low placement seems to be just southeast of Atlantic City which is ideal for a bad ass nor'easter that could even produce heavy snow into to the coast. We just need that high move in faster and that'll stall the storm even more snowing it out on top of us. Plenty of time left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I think this trends colder, it's going to really redevelop off the coast of cape hatteras because systems like these can make its own cold air. They tend to almost stall off the cape hatteras and really develop into huge storms...like many of the models depict it. It already trended colder on most of the models and if you think about it it's been a bit colder than modeled lately so let's see if that trend continues. Also we need that high to move in southwest a bit faster cause there is cold air now with that high just need it about 12-24 hours earlier. Not to mention it's January and a low placement seems to be just southeast of Atlantic City which is ideal for a bad ass nor'easter that could even produce heavy snow into to the coast. We just need that high move in faster and that'll stall the storm even more snowing it out on top of us. Plenty of time left... Agree Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I think this trends colder, it's going to really redevelop off the coast of cape hatteras because systems like these can make its own cold air. They tend to almost stall off the cape hatteras and really develop into huge storms...like many of the models depict it. It already trended colder on most of the models and if you think about it it's been a bit colder than modeled lately so let's see if that trend continues. Also we need that high to move in southwest a bit faster cause there is cold air now with that high just need it about 12-24 hours earlier. Not to mention it's January and a low placement seems to be just southeast of Atlantic City which is ideal for a bad ass nor'easter that could even produce heavy snow into to the coast. We just need that high move in faster and that'll stall the storm even more snowing it out on top of us. Plenty of time left... The low tracks directly over the heart of Long Island, also low placement in general is widely up for debate still, go look at the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The only posters that have any shot at snow with this system are to the north & west. Granted, there was a colder trend today on the ECMWF & EPS, I don't expect it to continue. Even with a major bombogenesis event, there's no cold air to drain into the system from the north, that's the problem. If you have a perfectly placed high & you can drain in some low level cold air, maybe you can squeeze in some frozen precipitation as far south as the European suite is depicting today. But I'd expect it to be more sleet & freezing rain than anything. If this was December or late Feb, I wouldn't even say that, but climotologically speaking, there is some chance for frozen precip. The main threat continues to be strong winds, coastal flooding & much needed rain for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Upton makes no mentions of snowfall either, only AN temps and soaking rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 All of that being said, I of course would love to be completely wrong & have some of the EPS members verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 What is the expected impact date of the Rjaystorneast'r Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Animal said: What is the expected impact date of the Rjaystorneast'r January 24th Storm Threat which is actually wrong (should be the 23rd) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: January 24th Storm Threat which is actually wrong (should be the 23rd) 23/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 23/24 Euro's 22/23rd and long gone by the 24th. GFS is quite a bit later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 there is just way too much east flow being modeled in the low levels for snow for anyone in the okx cwa. maybe people from ORH nw have the right to be a little excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro's 22/23rd and long gone by the 24th. GFS is quite a bit later Huh? Euro precip moves in 06z on the 23rd and is winding down 12z on the 24th and GFS precip rolls in same time between 00-06z 23rd and finisheslater 18z on the 24th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Huh? Euro precip moves in 06z on the 23rd and is winding down 12z on the 24th and GFS precip rolls in same time between 00-06z 23rd and finishes much later between 18z on the 24th and 06z 25th 24+ hour event. Costal areas will get a pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Upton makes no mentions of snowfall either, only AN temps and soaking rain low 50's here for most of the week....you'd have to go pretty far N and W to see anything frozen if NYC/coast is in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 58 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Huh? Euro precip moves in 06z on the 23rd and is winding down 12z on the 24th and GFS precip rolls in same time between 00-06z 23rd and finisheslater 18z on the 24th Euro has precip in before 0z sunday and is done just after midnight the 24th. .01 falls between 6z and 12z the 24th in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Hopefully we can get some 70+mph gusts here along the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 the gfes and eps are almost identical at 500mb with the eps being about 12 hours faster [i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 hours ago, mikemost said: The only posters that have any shot at snow with this system are to the north & west. Granted, there was a colder trend today on the ECMWF & EPS, I don't expect it to continue. Even with a major bombogenesis event, there's no cold air to drain into the system from the north, that's the problem. If you have a perfectly placed high & you can drain in some low level cold air, maybe you can squeeze in some frozen precipitation as far south as the European suite is depicting today. But I'd expect it to be more sleet & freezing rain than anything. If this was December or late Feb, I wouldn't even say that, but climotologically speaking, there is some chance for frozen precip. The main threat continues to be strong winds, coastal flooding & much needed rain for the whole area. This definitely has to the potential to be a big mountain event. I'm not talking the 1,000' elevations in our NW areas but rather real elevations above 2,000' in the Catskills, Berks and Southern Greens. Decemebr 1992 has insane snow amounts in the highest elevations as did March 2010 I'm talking 5 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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