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Severe Weather Risk This Weekend


Jim Martin

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Mesoscale Discussion 0099
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0822 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Louisiana...southern
   Arkansas...and central/southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...18...

   Valid 220222Z - 220415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17, 18 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop into Watch
   18 over the next hour. Across northern portions of the watch, the
   main severe hazard will likely transition to damaging winds (with a
   tornado or two possible). Farther southeast in Mississippi, a
   greater tornado/large-hail potential will exist, with a strong
   tornado possible.

   DISCUSSION...In response to increasing warm advection related to the
   low-level jet, severe thunderstorms near the LA/AR border have begun
   to grow upscale into a broken band, with embedded mesocyclones still
   noted. This evolution should continue as the storms progress into
   Watch 18, resulting in damaging winds likely becoming the dominant
   threat across northern portions of the watch. A tornado or two will
   still be possible, however, considering the amplifying low-level
   flow and notable veering with height of 0-3-km winds.

   Farther southeast over south-central Mississippi, dew points in the
   lower 60s will favor slightly greater surface-based buoyancy. KDGX
   VWP data suggest around 250-300 m2/s2 of storm-relative helicity is
   present for low-level mesocyclone organization. With increasing
   semi-discrete convection over the next several hours, the tornado
   potential should rise accordingly, and a strong tornado (primarily
   closer to the MS/AL border) cannot be ruled out.

   ..Picca.. 01/22/2017
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Mesoscale Discussion 100
< Previous MD
MD 100 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0830 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

   Areas affected...A small portion of southeast Mississippi into
   central and southern Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

   Valid 220230Z - 220400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues to expand across Tornado
   Watch 17.

   DISCUSSION...As the west-to-east surface warm front continues to
   shift slowly north across Mobile Bay and the Florida Panhandle, a
   very favorable supercell environment (as revealed by the 22/00Z LIX
   RAOB, and area VWPs) continues to support an increase in coverage
   and intensity of severe storms across the region.  While storms
   continue to increase across the southern half of Mississippi which
   will eventually spread into WW 17, the more immediate threat exists
   with cells farther south, shifting east-northeast out of the Florida
   Panhandle into adjacent southern Alabama.  The most significant
   storm is currently straddling the Escambia AL/Escambia FL county
   line, where a potentially tornadic circulation is evident on radar. 
   Expect convective coverage to increase northward across the watch
   over the next couple of hours, along with continued severe/tornado
   potential.

   ..Goss.. 01/22/2017
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9 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

That was awesome. I was right in the middle of the EF1 that touched down in Simpsonville SC a couple months ago and it's a terrifying helpless feeling. 

Yep, my neighborhood took a direct hit and still many un inhabitable houses, and tree damage that will last for decades

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