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Severe Weather Risk This Weekend


Jim Martin

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As was already said it's going to be a long night. Here is the afternoon  by MOB for my area. Seems like areas away from the immediate coast are the most under the gun according to the graphic above. All areas ripe for multiple threats.


000
FXUS64 KMOB 212223
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
423 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Much of our area has had time to
recover from this morning`s convection, as the associated surface
boundary sank into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite
imagery this afternoon shows the boundary again moving northward,
partially in response to a shortwave trough diving into North Texas
late this afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will
develop as the boundary moves northward (at approximately 10 MPH)
into the region this evening.

Current mesoanalysis indicates almost 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE close to
the coast. However, there is also still a fair amount of convective
inhibition. Expect the inhibition to decrease heading into the
evening hours as the left exit region of a 250mb jet moves into the
region. MLCAPE values could increase to the 1500-2000 J/kg range
with very steep lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 degrees C/km in the
700-500mb layer. These parameters, combined with impressive low-
level kinematic fields associated with the strengthening low-
level jet, will result in a severe weather risk for tonight.

Right now, it looks like the greatest risk of severe storms across
most of our area will occur between 7 pm and midnight. All types of
severe weather may be seen, with large hail, damaging winds, and
strong tornadoes possible. The severe weather risk should wane after
midnight as the best synoptic scale forcing/thermodynamic fields
move out of our area. However, showers and thunderstorms will
likely continue through much of the night.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to end from the west starting
late tonight and continuing through Sunday morning as a cold front
moves across the region. An isolated to scattered smattering of
showers may continue through much of the day as the upper low
moves across the Southeast. /Butts/
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518 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING...
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DESTRUCTIVE
TORNADOES... VERY LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER...AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.
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