No snow for you Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Thanks guys and gals for keeping us informed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Line of svr storms moving north across Lake Pontchartrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Had a brief TDS on that cell N of Smithland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 TOR warned cells around shreveport now cells around NOLA getting it together too with more discrete cells getting going in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Line of svr storms moving north across Lake Pontchartrain. HRRR clobbers Hattiesburg with that cluster again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Had a brief TDS on that cell N of Smithland I take back brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 cell west of NOLA now TOR warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Probably a strong tornado in far NE TX. Debris up to at least 8000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Significant TDS continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Very strong couplet has been in progress for a while near Uncertain, TX. Likely a significant tornado there. Will be crossing into LA soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 150 kts G2G, she's rainwrapped too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said: Very strong couplet has been in progress for a while near Uncertain, TX. Likely a significant tornado there. Will be crossing into LA soon. The lack of warning updates out of SHV is perplexing, hardly any updates and nothing about radar confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 SHV not off to a great start with today's event. Unwarned tor near Scottsville earlier, now it looks like storm west of Vivian tor-ed before and as it moved into the tor polygon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Yes, that storm near Smithland TX with an obvious TDS, 100kt velocity difference-- the tornado warning isn't even centered on it. Maybe SHV forgot about a huge tornadic storm????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 SHV probably got caught with their pants down. Don't think anyone was expecting a big threat this far west, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 As was already said it's going to be a long night. Here is the afternoon by MOB for my area. Seems like areas away from the immediate coast are the most under the gun according to the graphic above. All areas ripe for multiple threats. 000 FXUS64 KMOB 212223 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 423 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Much of our area has had time to recover from this morning`s convection, as the associated surface boundary sank into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows the boundary again moving northward, partially in response to a shortwave trough diving into North Texas late this afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop as the boundary moves northward (at approximately 10 MPH) into the region this evening. Current mesoanalysis indicates almost 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE close to the coast. However, there is also still a fair amount of convective inhibition. Expect the inhibition to decrease heading into the evening hours as the left exit region of a 250mb jet moves into the region. MLCAPE values could increase to the 1500-2000 J/kg range with very steep lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 degrees C/km in the 700-500mb layer. These parameters, combined with impressive low- level kinematic fields associated with the strengthening low- level jet, will result in a severe weather risk for tonight. Right now, it looks like the greatest risk of severe storms across most of our area will occur between 7 pm and midnight. All types of severe weather may be seen, with large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes possible. The severe weather risk should wane after midnight as the best synoptic scale forcing/thermodynamic fields move out of our area. However, showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through much of the night. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to end from the west starting late tonight and continuing through Sunday morning as a cold front moves across the region. An isolated to scattered smattering of showers may continue through much of the day as the upper low moves across the Southeast. /Butts/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 sometimes 500mb "cold core" outbreaks can surprise but most of the time its when the 500mb is cut off..not there yet may be the very steep lapse rates giving the storms something extra if thats the case not going to be a good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Rodessa LA could be in trouble of taking a hit....they may get lucky and have it go south of them......luckily its a small target... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Textbook supercell...just not for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Storm east of Plain Dealing, LA needs to be watched carefully. Edit: really ramped up. Probably a tornado now or very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 still nothing confirmed from SHV in LSR or warning updates all radar indicates odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 NWS Sherveport just mentioned in their Hazardous Weather Outlook that strong, destructive tornadoes are possible tonight in their County Warning Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Hodograph via VWP from KLIX is starting to improve quite a bit. 80 knots of 0-6km BS. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 518 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING... RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES... VERY LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 This section of the TX/LA border area had tornadoes on April 29, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/160429_rpts.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Cell south of Natchitoches, LA is one to watch carefully next. Edit: just went tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Wow. Just a textbook cross-section of the updraft of a tornado warned supercell in LA Visible on BR/ZDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said: Cell south of Natchitoches, LA is one to watch carefully next. Edit: just went tornado warned. That one just formed about 10 minutes ago and is already TW'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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