Buckeye05 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: The correlation coefficient is lowered. It is probably a tornado crossing Interstate 75. Wow, that sounds dangerous! Yeah that's a definite TDS. Almost certainly doing some damage right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Depending on exact timing here could be a potential disaster in the making. The NFC championship game is tomorrow in Atlanta. The amount of people exposed to a storm in traffic or leaving the game could be very very high. Even though you're right about the timing (I'll be at the game! Who hoo), I've seen this song and dance in north Georgia too many times to count....unless we get some sun and adequate instability, I wouldn't be too concerned.....it's been almost 6 years (April 2011) since we've had a major severe concern here. The north Georgia storm shield has been alive and well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Looks like the radar was spot on. A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM EST FOR SOUTHWESTERN TWIGGS AND NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES... At 1232 PM EST, a confirmed tornado was located over Robins Air Force Base, or 12 miles northeast of Perry, moving east at 45 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The MCS in central Georgia is likely producing several QLCS tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said: The MCS in central Georgia is likely producing several QLCS tornadoes. It has.....NWS reporting damage near the Perry area......looks like it was near Robins Air Force Base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Definite debris signature at Hancock/Baldwin County line in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Pretty decent TDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Looks like another TDS between Kite and Wrightsville, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 quite a few slightly delayed TOR reports now coming out of ATL in LSR's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Could be a significant tornado east of Wrightsville, GA. Debris up to possibly 10,000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 discrete cells forming just ahead of line over SE GA could be trouble. one just went t-storm warned with a tornado possible wording Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 And probably another TDS for a few scans west of Warthen, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 That was definitely a TDS and velocity difference of over 100 kt between Wrightsville and Kite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 700 PM EST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE OVER GEORGIA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Geez. 70/30 probs on that new watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 VWP from KVAX is pretty decent looking. Right near those developing cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 preliminary tornado report at Dudley GA (1803z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 TDS at Midville/ Wadley (Burke County/ Jefferson County) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Cells out ahead of the main line are rotating now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Classic low-topped supercell. Going to need a warning on this soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 There you go @Superstorm93 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 232 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Appling County in southeastern Georgia... * Until 245 PM EST * At 232 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Baxley, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Decent little hail core in the Baxley cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Excellent AFD - Near Term - just posted out of CHS regarding the rest of the afternoon/evening: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 235 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Afternoon Update: Following coordination with SPC, a Tornado Watch has been issued for a large portion of our area. Current radar imagery shows the main band of convection starting to work it's way into our westernmost counties. This continues to be in line with what many of the Hi-res convective models have been showing. A robust short wave is beginning to move over the western portion of our area and will continue to do so the rest of this afternoon into this evening. Multiple factors make the environment very favorable for convection: a strengthening low level jet, upper divergence in response to a 90-100 kt jet nearby, and good surface conditions involving well above normal temperatures and dew points well into the 60s. SPC Mesoanalysis has a tongue of SBCAPES ~1,500 J/kg working their way into our southern CWA, which is very impressive for January. Additionally, bulk shear exceeding 60 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear ~70 kt over a large portion of the area is favorable for sustaining this convection and generating isolated tornadoes. In fact, the Significant Tornado Parameter is over 1 across a large portion of our our. Some spots are even approaching a 2, which is very impressive for January. The line is expected to quickly move from west to east, exiting the coast in the 6-8 PM time frame. The one uncertainty is the low level stable trajectories off the Atlantic could limit the convection as it approaches our eastern zones. Given the line has a long history of warning-level storms, wouldn't be surprised if they maintain most of their strength to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Thinking we need a 15% for MS and connect the 10%. Both 4k and HRRR have been trending some significant tornadoes for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 0-6km Bulk Shear really looking impressive. Wouldn't be surprised if that line remained severe all the way to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Tornado warning might be needed at Sylvania GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Chinook said: Tornado warning might be needed at Sylvania GA Nice little notch on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 Possible Tornado Debris Signature to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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