downeastnc Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 hours ago, SmokeEater said: Major damage in Hattiesburg with injuries from multiple chasers in the area, large tornado continues on the ground. I feel asleep around 1 am and the last radar sweep I did on radarscope worried me, there was already some nasty well formed cells producing in LA. Gonna be a long couple of days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Low level clouds moving off the gulf from SW to NE. No idea how fast but they're really trucking! Nice write up on the situation from MOB below. FXUS64 KMOB 211339 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 739 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below. && .UPDATE...Updated zones to indicate a Wind Advisory for coastal counties out in advance of the squall line that is moving east across the area. An increasingly strong low level jet has resulted in a strong southerly surface wind flow, sustained at 15 to 25 mph with frequent gusts to 35 mph. These southerly winds will diminish somewhat this afternoon in the wake of the storms, so the Advisory is only valid through 2 pm this afternoon. 12/DS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 715 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION... 21/12Z issuance...Strong southerly winds 15 to 25 knots, with ocnl stronger gusts, out ahead of an approaching squall line. The line of storms will pass west to east across the region this morning, with southerly winds continuing but weakening. The showers and storms will end for most areas this afternoon, but increase in coverage again this evening and overnight. As the storms move through this morning, IFR or LIFR ceilings/vsbys can be expected in and near storms. 12/DS PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...Severe weather event expected to be ongoing over the western portions of the forecast area at the beginning of the forecast period, and HiRes models are in agreement in moving the convective activity east across the remainder of the forecast area through the morning and exit the region by early afternoon. After a lull in activity this afternoon and into early this evening, another potential round of severe storms is possible late this evening and overnight (most likely in areas east of I-65 in southwest Alabama and over the western Florida panhandle) Saturday into early Sunday morning. Latest RAP and HRRR models indicate an 850mb southwesterly jet of 50 to 60 knots working its way east across the forecast area (Mississippi and into southwest Alabama and the western Florida panhandle) this morning. This is also supported best by the 21/00Z ECMWF. At the surface winds remain backed out of the south and southeast due to a developing surface meso-low over southwest Mississippi early this morning, that is expected to move to near Tuscaloosa Alabama by around 7 am this morning, and then on east-northeast across central Alabama and likely weakening through midday. With this, strongly curved hodographs/low level shear parameters will favor the potential for tornadoes this morning across southwest Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, where RAP and HRRR both indicate 0-1 km Storm Relative Helicity as high as 400-500 m2/s2. As a result, strong/significant tornado (EF2+) threat will migrate out of southeast Mississippi and into southwest Alabama through around 9 am. Severe threat will then continue east across south central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle through late morning and very early afternoon as the upper shortwave ejects off to the northeast. A Tornado Watch is in effect for our southeast Mississippi counties through 7 am and may need to be extended in time if storms have not exited east of that area by then, and a Tornado Watch is in effect for all of southwest and south central Alabama and the western Florida until 11 am. As the 850 mb jet works into the region from the west, 65 degree plus dewpoints will advect inland across the region, with MLCape approaching 1400 J/kg in some areas, so very unstable airmass for this time of the year. With the increasing atmospheric moisture, also looking at a flash flood threat increasing across portions of the forecast area and will have to monitor for this possibility. Most of the morning activity will likely be east of the forecast area by noon or early this afternoon, with a lull in convective activity late this afternoon into early evening. As the upper low ejects northeast away from the region late today into the evening, shortwave energy aloft just in advance of the final approaching front will possibly re-initiate convection east of I-65 in Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. This scenario is a little more iffy than the earlier weather, but if it does develop conditions will still support another round of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 latest HRRR very active back west of the current activity later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Looks like death toll in Hattiesburg has been lowered to 3 but it's expected to rise. http://local15tv.com/news/local/extensive-damage-in-hattiesburg-death-toll-lowered-to-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 .A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL MACON...NORTHWESTERN LEE AND CENTRAL TALLAPOOSA COUNTIES... AT 843 AM CST, TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALEXANDER CITY TO NEAR NOTASULGA, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 must be seeing debris...... the wordings? ATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 908 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ALC017-081-211545- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-170121T1545Z/ LEE AL-CHAMBERS AL- 908 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CST FOR EASTERN LEE AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES... AT 908 AM CST, TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RIDGE GROVE TO NEAR BEANS MILL TO NEAR GRIFFEN MILL, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Hattiesburg damage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Thunder in the distance growing louder here in Navarre. SWS from MOB including my area. Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mobile AL 914 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ALZ058-060-264-266-FLZ202>206-211645- Baldwin Central AL-Crenshaw AL-Covington AL-Baldwin Coastal AL- Escambia Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL- Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL- 914 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN...SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW... SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHERN SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 AM CST... At 913 AM CST, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Elba to 10 miles northeast of Roeville to near Gulf Shores,and moving east at 35 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Pensacola, Ferry Pass, Brent, West Pensacola, Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Ensley, Warrington, Crestview, Niceville, Gulf Shores, Eglin AFB, Foley, Pace, Milton, Opp, Valparaiso, Gulf Breeze, Orange Beach and Goulding. A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CST for south central and southwestern Alabama...and northwestern Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The new HRRR is just plain scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 So south central NC goes from 'see text' (light green) to 3 levels higher 'enhanced' in one forecast cycle........OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 still says radar conformed in that line in AL several LSR say possibele tornado but logged as wind damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 SUNDAY 1/22Two rounds of severe thunderstorms (overnight storms continuing, followed by another round starting in afternoon in AL) in south and east AL, GA, SC, NC, south VA, east TN, FL panhandle, north and central FL. TORCON - 6 central and south GA, central and east SC, southeast NC, northeast FL; 4 - east-central and southeast AL, west and central FL panhandle, north GA, west SC, west and north NC; 3 rest of area. A line of severe thunderstorm pushes into south FL Sunday night. TORCON - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 TONIGHT 1/21-22Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, possibly strong, in southeast AR, northeast and southeast LA, MS, AL, GA, south SC, FL panhandle, extreme south TN.TORCON - 6 central and south MS, south AL, south GA; 5 - central AL, central GA, FL panhandle; 4 northeast and southeast LA, southeast AR; 3 rest of area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Matt - Are those numbers from Forbes at TWC? - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said: Matt - Are those numbers from Forbes at TWC? - Buck Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1126 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN UPSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA... NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL NOON EST * AT 1126 AM EST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WESLEY CHURCH, OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUTLER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Thankfully, pretty uneventful here in Navarre so far. The usual for a squall line while moving thru. Lightning, thunder, heavy rain, gusty winds (maybe 30mph.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Seems like we have a couple of tornadoes possibly in progress in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Time to stay frosty in parts of the SE. I've got tornados less than 50 miles away with additional storms tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AR...WESTERN MS...AND NORTHERN LA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS... ..SUMMARY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FROM LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA, GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL COVER THE FULL SPECTRUM FROM ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..AL/FL/GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON A FAST MOVING AND INTENSE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE, EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS GA AND INTO SC LATER TODAY. TRANSIENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE LINE THIS MORNING, PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST AS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE STORMS MAINTAINING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND MODEST AFTERNOON HEATING MAY FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AREA AND MAINTAIN THE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ..AR/LA/MS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM AND WEST TX WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LIFT AND COOLING ALOFT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHEAST TX AROUND PEAK HEATING AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA AND INTO MS THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES, COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES TO PROMOTE A WIDESPREAD RISK OF SEVERE HAIL. CAM SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE FAVORED, FURTHER INCREASING THE RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THEREFORE HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THIS AREA TO MDT RISK FOR THE HAIL THREAT. ..LA/MS/AL/GA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION AND THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A TORNADO RISK IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ACTIVE ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AFFECTING AREAS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA WITH MINIMAL CHANGES. ..HART/LEITMAN.. 01/21/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1031 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA... NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA... NORTH CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA... * UNTIL 1100 AM CST * AT 1030 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DE FUNIAK SPRINGS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Depending on exact timing there could be a potential disaster in the making. The NFC championship game is tomorrow in Atlanta. The amount of people exposed to a potential storm in traffic or coming to/leaving the game would be very very high. Rise up! It's the last game in he dome before we get Mercedes benz stadium. 1.5 billion dollars later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Preliminary tornado report at Howard, GA, 1625z. See above post by MattPetrulli for the SRV image for this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1213 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA... * UNTIL 1245 PM EST * AT 1213 PM EST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOLINGBROKE, OR NEAR FORSYTH, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Pretty impressive couplet halfway between Macon and Forsyth right now. Looks to be crossing I-75 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Pretty impressive couplet halfway between Macon and Forsyth right now. Looks to be crossing I-75 right now. Big F-4 passed through here in Monroe County about 5 years ago in the same area. Scary stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, jrips27 said: Pretty impressive couplet halfway between Macon and Forsyth right now. Looks to be crossing I-75 right now. The correlation coefficient is lowered. It is probably a tornado crossing Interstate 75. Wow, that sounds dangerous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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