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Severe Weather Risk This Weekend


Jim Martin

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I've got tix to the Rolex 24 in Daytona next weekend with about ten friends, plus pre-paid hotel, plus pre-paid RV- I have a vested interest and am glad this was not as serious as it could have been-  but this board was TDS!, TDS! for an hour straight and have we a single confirmed tornado report from the state of Florida?

The radar signatures just did not match the hype on this board at any time, IMO.

The fact is, despite one monster tornado which sadly claimed multiple lives and justified the High Risk from a public safety standpoint if not a technical one, for the overwhelming majority of the risk area this was an intense squall line that never quite mustered the ability to sustain tornadic supercells.

Sorry if anyone was offended by the truth.

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MOD risk for a small sliver of central FL now...

 

there may have been a strong tornado or two in GA and perhaps FL this evening but it seems we dodged a bullet because this set up appears it didn't live up to its potential meteorology wise

the number and number of intense tornadoes seem to have underperformed

 

 

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1 minute ago, F-5 said:

I've got tix to the Rolex 24 in Daytona next weekend with about ten friends, plus pre-paid hotel, plus pre-paid RV- I have a vested interest and am glad this was not as serious as it could have been-  but this board was TDS!, TDS! for an hour straight and have we a single confirmed tornado report from the state of Florida?

The radar signatures just did not match the hype on this board at any time, IMO.

The fact is, despite one monster tornado which sadly claimed multiple lives and justified the High Risk from a public safety standpoint if not a technical one, for the overwhelming majority of the risk area this was an intense squall line that never quite mustered the ability to sustain tornadic supercells.

Sorry if anyone was offended by the truth.

And every one of those TDS's were confirmed by NWS Melbourne in chat. Were they strong long lived tornadoes? No. But the storms were mostly rain wrapped, in rural areas when TDS's showed up. Confirmation doesn't come immediately. No offense taken, but know what you yourself are talking about first.

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6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

MOD risk for a small sliver of central FL now...

 

there may have been a strong tornado or two in GA and perhaps FL this evening but it seems we dodged a bullet because this set up appears it didn't live up to its potential meteorology wise

the number and number of intense tornadoes seem to have underperformed

 

 

There's no may in GA. 12 dead in Albany, damage pics from the area are not good.

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We probably won't know anything more from Florida until morning, when the rural tornado tracks are visible and discovered. But it doesn't look like things got way too bad in the big cities otherwise we'd have probably heard by now.

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1 minute ago, EquusStorm said:

We probably won't know anything more from Florida until morning, when the rural tornado tracks are visible and discovered. But it doesn't look like things got way too bad in the big cities otherwise we'd have probably heard by now.

This isn't the 1800's.  

Word gets out quick and it's quiet in regards to major damage so far. 

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1 minute ago, SmokeEater said:

There's no may in GA. 12 dead in Albany, damage pics from the area are not good.

Just because a single strong tornado hit a city because of bad luck  doesn't mean  the overall setup lived up to its potential .....

take this same set up in the rural plains and if that particular tornado hit nothing then I'm sure you would agree with me

 

 

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I haven't seen a watch with 90's across the board in quite a while. I am glad that as a whole, initially, it does seem to have under-performed. Yes, lives were lost and some significant tornadoes occurred but I think we all know it could have been a lot worse. We all love under-performing events except for the complacency they tend to foster ...  

I think I am going to start logging confirmed tornadoes, large tornadoes and tornado emergencies as their own report type when they are reported by the NWS within tornado warnings and wrap them into my LSR feed. They are delaying on LSR's by days sometimes and for anyone who reads LSR's into a map to get an idea of where things are happening, there are big gaps in the severe data, especially when things get busy. Within a day or two it will all be there and I certainly understand their focus during outbreaks not making "that weirdo in Louisiana who reads all of our LSR's" happy. For those of us trying to give an idea of where things are happening though, it is kind of hard. 

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Just now, Buckeye05 said:

Lots of misinformation being circulated regarding the Albany death toll, with some reports ranging from 12 to 20 fatalities there. As of now, there are THREE confirmed deaths in the Albany area.

Right. I was even mistaken as well. Thank you for that Buckeye05.

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