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Severe Weather Risk This Weekend


Jim Martin

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Regarding the rarity of this setup, here is Patrick Marsh's map of high risks from 1990-2008.  

Please note that each day consists of multiple outlooks and so it is possible for a grid point to receive multiple “hits” for being located in a Moderate or High risk outlook on the same day. In other words, if your location is located within 2 high risk outlooks, this does not guarantee that you will have two days of high risks. The location might simply be contained within a high risk from two separate outlooks issued for the same day.

highriskclimo.png

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62 degrees and cloudy here in Macon, GA. We've barely seen the sun over the past 24 hours so don't think there is much instability. Doubt we get any clearing over the next few hours. Firmly in the moderate risk area with high only a little ways SE, so we'll see what happens.

 

Robins AFB radar is back up and running for the Central Georgia folks. Great news. 

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6 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

62 degrees and cloudy here in Macon, GA. We've barely seen the sun over the past 24 hours so don't think there is much instability. Doubt we get any clearing over the next few hours. Firmly in the moderate risk area with high only a little ways SE, so we'll see what happens.

 

Robins AFB radar is back up and running for the Central Georgia folks. Great news. 

Don't let your guard down, extreme low level shear of 400-700 m2/s2 and some broken skies are following the warm front northward. SW Georgia is already in broken skies up to almost Americus.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1236 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GA  
  
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21...  
  
VALID 221836Z - 221930Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 21 CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GA THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING INTO EARLY  
AFTERNOON, AND TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH THESE STORMS.  
  
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OFFSHORE OF BAY  
COUNTY FL WILL QUICKLY TRACK NORTHEAST. RADAR DATA FROM EVX  
INDICATES MODERATE LOW TO MID LEVEL ROTATION WITH THESE CELLS, WHICH  
WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOON. 18Z RAOB FROM TLH SHOWS A FAVORABLE  
SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR IN  
PLACE. FURTHERMORE, A COMBINATION OF 18Z MESOANALYSIS DATA WITH RAOB  
AND VWP DATA INDICATE 0-1KM SRH VALUES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE  
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO, TO OVER 400 M2/S2  
CURRENTLY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA HAVE CONTINUED TO  
IMPROVE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO SOUTHWEST GA WHERE TEMPERATURES  
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER  
60S TO NEAR 70 UNDER BROKEN CLOUDINESS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER  
SPACE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES, WITH  
THE GREATEST THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL INTENSE  
CELLS FROM WALTON COUNTY FL TO DALE COUNTY GA ALSO WILL BE ENTERING  
THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SOON AND AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION  
AND STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE.  

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I'd watch out further south too.  HRRR prog has a very similar look to the 1988 Kissimi Tornado outbreak.

 

Also some news outlets not giving this outbreak enough attention cause they are distracted by a certain world leader who I shall not name.

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Latest from WRAL' s Greg Fishel.

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE-NO BIG CHANGES IN THINKING

I am very concerned about parts of Georgia, northern Florida, and even parts of South Carolina as a significant Tornado outbreak may very well be just hours away. But for North Carolina, the tornado risk is lower. And the farther north you live, the lesser the risk.The wind fields are very impressive, as is the instability aloft. Thus, thunder and lightning will be very possible if not likely throughout our entire viewing area tonight. But it is going to be very difficult to get rid of this shallow cool air near the surface. And without instability rooted at the surface, tornados are difficult to come by. Straight-line winds and hail are still possible, and that threat is not to be taken lightly. This event will be ongoing throughout much of the overnight period, and Aimee Wilmoth and myself will be monitoring developments closely. The latest update from the Storm prediction center lowered the severe probabilities slightly from their earlier update this morning, stating some of the same reasons I have mentioned in both of my posts-the shallow cool air near the surface. More to come.....

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